
TB @ LAD






Positive Match Player Stats for Rays vs Dodgers Series Game 3
The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Christopher Morel, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe).
Gavin Stone will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing bats in this matchup.
Gavin Stone will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats across the board.
Gavin Stone was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and accumulated 10 strikeouts.
Gavin Stone’s 94.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Josh Lowe is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.
In the league, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.
Josh Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Gavin Stone in today’s game.
Josh Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.
Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 3rd-best field in the league for righty home runs.
The 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Dodger Stadium.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Will Smith ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Will Smith will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 9th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP skill.
Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Over the past week, Teoscar Hernandez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 102.7-mph in recent games.
Teoscar Hernandez has put up a .346 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 85th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
As it relates to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 13th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.
Over the past 7 days, Yandy Diaz’s maximum exit velocity (a good indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 113.6-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the league.
Gavin Lux is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Gavin Lux will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz today.
Gavin Lux hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
Hitting from the opposite that Gavin Stone throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today’s game.
Brandon Lowe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Brandon Lowe has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 95.4-mph.
Mookie Betts projects as the 14th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.
Over the past two weeks, Taylor Walls has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 26.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.5°.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls’s true offensive skill to be a .284, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .042 gap between that figure and his actual .242 wOBA.
Sporting a 1.69 K/BB rate this year, Taylor Walls has shown favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 90th percentile.
When it comes to his home run skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Christopher Morel is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.
When assessing his home run skill, Jose Siri ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jose Siri has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 16% seasonal rate to 25% in the last two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 6th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent.
Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.
Freddie Freeman will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz today.
Freddie Freeman will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
In terms of his home runs, Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side this year. His 0.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.7.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Christopher Morel has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .194 mark is a good deal lower than his .220 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Josh Lowe’s BABIP ability is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best batter in MLB.
Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.
Tommy Edman will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.
Max Muncy projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Max Muncy will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Max Muncy will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.
Jose Siri has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last season’s 94-mph mark.
In the last week’s worth of games, Jose Siri’s 50% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.5%.
Dodger Stadium projects as the #3 ballpark in baseball for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Gavin Stone has been lucky this year, posting a 3.44 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.36 — a 0.92 disparity.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
In the past week, Max Muncy’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12% up to 28.6%.
Max Muncy has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 104.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 95.1-mph.
Max Muncy’s launch angle this season (27°) is a significant increase over his 21.8° angle last year.
Sporting a .318 BABIP this year, Josh Lowe has performed in the 77th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Gavin Lux will hold that advantage in today’s game.
In the past two weeks, Junior Caminero’s maximum exit velocity (a favorable measure of recent form and raw power) has been 116.3-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yandy Diaz’s true offensive ability to be a .345, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .026 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .319 wOBA.
Sporting a .266 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Yandy Diaz is ranked in the 76th percentile.
Tommy Edman is quite athletic, ranking in the 88th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.85 ft/sec since the start of last season.
Mookie Betts will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
With a .387 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Mookie Betts is positioned in the 96th percentile.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Freddie Freeman ranks as the 12th-best hitter in the majors.
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Will Smith’s 32.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 22.3%.
Despite posting a .324 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Will Smith has suffered from bad luck given the .027 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.
Negative Match Player Stats with Rays vs Dodgers Series Game 3
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Stone is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least on the slate.
Josh Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
In the last week, Josh Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.2% down to 0%.
In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Josh Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 92.9 mph to 84.8 mph.
In the last 7 days, Josh Lowe’s 6.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14%.
Gavin Stone will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Junior Caminero today.
Junior Caminero will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.
Putting up a -7.8° launch angle in the past two weeks’ worth of games suggests that Junior Caminero has been finding it challenging to lift the ball recently, which is a key component of hitting for power.
Will Smith is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Batting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Will Smith has a tough challenge in today’s game.
The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today.
Will Smith’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 89.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 86.5-mph in the past 14 days.
Will Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 42.1% to 34.1%.
Hitting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Teoscar Hernandez will have a tough matchup today.
Teoscar Hernandez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Teoscar Hernandez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 14.4% seasonal rate has lowered to 9.1% in the past week.
Teoscar Hernandez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 16.2% on the season to 0% over the last week.
Gavin Stone will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today’s game.
Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.
Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (0.5°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° figure last season.
In the last 14 days, Yandy Diaz’s 31.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.5%.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (10.8) may lead us to conclude that Gavin Lux has been very fortunate this year with his 15.3 actual HR/600.
Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.
Batting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Mookie Betts will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.
Mookie Betts has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 12.5% rate last year has fallen to 5.7% this year.
Last season, Mookie Betts had a launch angle of 18.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 13.5°.
In the last week’s worth of games, Mookie Betts’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.2%.
This year, there has been a decline in Junior Caminero’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.97 ft/sec last year to 27.39 ft/sec currently.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 8th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.
Taylor Walls is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.
As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Gavin Stone today.
Taylor Walls will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Taylor Walls’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 18.1% to 13.5%.
Gavin Stone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christopher Morel today.
Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christopher Morel in today’s game.
Christopher Morel has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 3.7% in the past 14 days.
Christopher Morel’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 94.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 82.4-mph over the past two weeks.
Christopher Morel’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, going from 37.6% on the season to 22.2% in the past 14 days.
Christopher Morel’s launch angle lately (4.7° in the past week’s worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 13.7° seasonal angle.
Jose Siri is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Batting from the same side that Gavin Stone throws from, Jose Siri encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.
Jose Siri will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Jose Siri has shown poor plate discipline this year, ranking in the 9th percentile with a 4.82 K/BB rate.
Jose Siri has recorded a .203 batting average this year, placing in the 7th percentile.
Over the past two weeks, Shohei Ohtani’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20% down to 14.6%.
Shohei Ohtani has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 95-mph dropping to 92.8-mph over the last two weeks.
Shohei Ohtani’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 15.1% on the season to 0% in the last week.
Tommy Edman is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.
The switch-hitting Tommy Edman will bat from his weak side (0) today against Shane Baz, Since the start of last season, Tommy Edman’s 5% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 22nd percentile among his peers.
Tommy Edman does not make a lot of hard contact. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (106 mph) rate him as one of the league’s worst: in the 21st percentile since the start of last season.
Tommy Edman and his 5.9° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 7th percentile, among the lowest in the league since the start of last season.
Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
In terms of his home runs, Max Muncy has had positive variance on his side this year. His 36.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.2.
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jacob Lopez is projected to throw 59 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least on the slate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams today.
With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jacob Lopez will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
Jacob Lopez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.
Yandy Diaz has paced 11.6 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile for power.
In his last GS, Gavin Stone was on point and gave up 0 ER.
Tampa Bay Rays batters as a group rank in the cellar of the league this year ( 4th-worst) when assessing their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 5th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.
Mookie Betts has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .386 mark is a good deal higher than his .364 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 25th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
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