ARI @ PHI
Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, May 2nd
02/05/25 18:45:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for D-Backs vs Phillies Matchup Today
Tim Tawa is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games today at 83°.
Tim Tawa will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today’s game.
Tim Tawa pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Tim Tawa’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 23.1% on the season to 30.8% in the past week’s worth of games.
The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense ranks as the 5th-best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
Citizens Bank Park has the 9th-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.
Merrill Kelly will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
Merrill Kelly’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2319 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2369 rpm).
Merrill Kelly has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.89 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.03 — a 1.14 K/9 difference.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.
Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.
Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Merrill Kelly in today’s matchup.
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Batting from the opposite that Jesus Luzardo throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.
Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
Nick Castellanos will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.
Josh Naylor is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Josh Naylor has averaged 27 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 87th percentile for power.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.
Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
Trea Turner will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average talent.
With 7 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jesus Luzardo has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
Among all starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball spin rate of 2224 rpm is in the 25th percentile this year.
When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Jesus Luzardo in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.
Jesus Luzardo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
Jesus Luzardo will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats across the board.
Jesus Luzardo was firing on all cylinders in his previous game started and notched 11 strikeouts.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.
Randal Grichuk is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.
Randal Grichuk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today’s matchup.
Randal Grichuk pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Batting from the opposite that Jesus Luzardo throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will have an edge in today’s game.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 15.1% to 22.6%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.
Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Max Kepler will have the upper hand in today’s game.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Max Kepler ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.
Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today’s game.
Bryce Harper will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
J.T. Realmuto will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.
When estimating his overall offensive talent, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
Alec Bohm will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Alec Bohm’s launch angle of late (24.5° in the last week) is quite a bit higher than his 6° seasonal angle.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Alec Bohm ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.
Hitting from the opposite that Jesus Luzardo throws from, Gabriel Moreno will have an edge in today’s game.
Bats such as Gabriel Moreno with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jesus Luzardo who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Gabriel Moreno’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 15.5% on the season to 25% over the past two weeks.
Jorge Barrosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
By putting up a .316 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jorge Barrosa grades out in the 99th percentile.
Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Johan Rojas will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Johan Rojas’s launch angle this season (8.3°) is significantly higher than his 4.5° mark last year.
In the past week, Johan Rojas’s 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.
Bryson Stott is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.
Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Bryson Stott will have an edge in today’s game.
Bryson Stott has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
Bryson Stott has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.
Corbin Carroll has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 7.3% rate last season to 16.9% this year.
Negative Match Player Stats with D-Backs vs Phillies
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 6th-worst venue in the game for boosting offensive stats to righties.
Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which tends to lead to less offense.
Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tim Tawa in today’s matchup.
The #5 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Gabriel Moreno (the D-Backs’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #22 ballpark in baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team in action today.
In his previous outing, Merrill Kelly was firing on all cylinders and gave up 1 ER.
The Philadelphia Phillies (21.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.
Merrill Kelly didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and compiled 1 Ks.
The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.358) suggests that Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year with his .401 actual wOBA.
The #6 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.
When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 34.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.6.
Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jesus Luzardo.
Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Eugenio Suarez in today’s matchup.
In terms of his home runs, Eugenio Suarez has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 31.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.8.
Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Nick Castellanos today.
Over the past two weeks, Nick Castellanos’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 92.8 mph to 89 mph.
Jesus Luzardo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josh Naylor in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Josh Naylor in today’s matchup.
Josh Naylor has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week.
Josh Naylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 93.7-mph mark last season has dropped to 89.2-mph.
Merrill Kelly will hold the platoon advantage over Trea Turner in today’s matchup.
Trea Turner’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (5.8°) is quite a bit worse than his 9.7° mark last season.
In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Trea Turner’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (1.8°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.8°.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jesus Luzardo in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent level.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .316, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games,Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Randal Grichuk today.
Randal Grichuk has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 7 days.
Randal Grichuk’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, falling from 7.4% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Over the past 7 days, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 85.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Max Kepler’s BABIP ability is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Max Kepler is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
In the past week’s worth of games, Max Kepler’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 90.2 mph to 87.8 mph.
Over the last 7 days, Bryce Harper’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 20.7%.
When it comes to his home runs, Bryce Harper has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 27.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.1.
J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.
Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage against J.T. Realmuto in today’s game.
J.T. Realmuto’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 94.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 90-mph.
J.T. Realmuto’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 12.7% on the season to 7.4% in the past 14 days.
Alec Bohm is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.
Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Alec Bohm in today’s game.
Alec Bohm’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 91.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 87.3-mph over the last 7 days.
Alec Bohm’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 14.3% to 9.8%.
Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gabriel Moreno in today’s game.
Gabriel Moreno has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has dropped off to 0% this season.
As it relates to his home run ability, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Barrosa in the 17th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.
Jorge Barrosa is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jorge Barrosa today.
In the last week, Jorge Barrosa has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johan Rojas in the 12th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.
Johan Rojas is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
34% of the time that Johan Rojas has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.
Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Johan Rojas will have a disadvantage in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johan Rojas in the 14th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Bryson Stott has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week.
Bryson Stott’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 86.9-mph average last year has lowered to 83.9-mph.
When it comes to his home run skill, Bryson Stott ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bryson Stott’s true offensive talent to be a .313, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .041 disparity between that figure and his actual .354 wOBA.
Batting from the same side that Jesus Luzardo throws from, Corbin Carroll meets a tough challenge in today’s game.
Corbin Carroll will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corbin Carroll’s true offensive ability to be a .353, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .056 difference between that figure and his actual .409 wOBA.
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