Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Pirates Matchup Today

PNC Park projects as the #9 ballpark in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.9-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for bats.

Extreme groundball bats like Jose Iglesias tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

Jose Iglesias has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 84.8-mph EV.

Over the past 7 days, Jose Iglesias’s 80% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

Compared to his seasonal average of -3.6°, Jose Iglesias has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a -0.5° figure in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Jose Iglesias has notched a .353 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 89th percentile.

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 42% to 49.4%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 2.3% seasonal rate to 10% in the past week.

Jason Heyward will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

Jason Heyward’s launch angle this season (21.7°) is quite a bit better than his 10.2° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles PNC Park as the 9th-best venue in baseball for left-handed batting average.

Jason Heyward’s quickness has increased this season. His 26.83 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.33 ft/sec now.

When it comes to his batting average, Jason Heyward has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .209 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

Since the start of last season, Martin Maldonado’s flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to study power) grades out in the 77th percentile at 93.9 mph.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 83rd percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.

Adam Frazier will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Adam Frazier will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Adam Frazier’s launch angle of late (29° in the past week’s worth of games) is a significant increase over his 14° seasonal figure.

Mitch Keller has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Mitch Keller has utilized his slider 8.4% more often this season (33.5%) than he did last season (25.1%).

Mitch Keller’s 2413-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starters.

Considering the 1.12 deviation between Mitch Keller’s 6.88 K/9 and his 8.00 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see positive regression in future games.

The #5 park in the league for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Mitch Keller’s 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.5-mph fall off from last season’s 94.5-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last year’s 88.7-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side against Dylan Cease in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Manny Machado has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 21.9% over the past 14 days.

Manny Machado has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 92.9-mph figure.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 7th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 14.6% rate last year to 20.2% this year.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.4-mph over the course of the season to 101.3-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 77th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Joey Bart will hold that advantage today.

Posting a .352 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Joey Bart finds himself in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Luis Arraez will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today.

When estimating his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

With a 0.96 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Luis Arraez has shown impressive plate discipline, placing in the 99th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future,Dylan Cease will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Dylan Cease projects as the 15th-best starter in the league right now when it comes to his strikeout skill, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Alexander Canario, Oneil Cruz).

Dylan Cease was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and put up 7 strikeouts.

Dylan Cease has recorded a 14% Swinging Strike rate this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage over Mitch Keller in today’s game.

Bats such as Tyler Wade with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitch Keller who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Wade has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .268 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .296.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game’s 7th-best home run hitter.

Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .237 BA is a fair amount lower than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage today.

Enmanuel Valdez will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Enmanuel Valdez has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9.6% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last 14 days.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Pirates

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 1st percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Jose Iglesias is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

PNC Park has the 6th-highest fence height (on average) in MLB.

HRs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in MLB.

Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage over Jose Iglesias in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Iglesias in today’s game.

Jose Iglesias’s launch angle this season (-3.6°) is significantly lower than his 8.8° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles PNC Park as the 6th-worst venue in MLB for righty home runs.

Mitch Keller will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Xander Bogaerts in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Xander Bogaerts’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 89.5-mph seasonal average has lowered to 82.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

In the last week’s worth of games, Xander Bogaerts’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.8%.

Jason Heyward is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Jason Heyward has been pinch hit for 11% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

The #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Jason Heyward’s BABIP talent is projected in the 4th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jason Heyward will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 0th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Martin Maldonado is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

Martin Maldonado has been pulled from the game early 40% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage over Martin Maldonado in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Martin Maldonado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.8% rate (87th percentile).

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his home run skill, Adam Frazier ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Adam Frazier is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

Among every team today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Adam Frazier ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Adam Frazier’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 18.4% to 14.3%.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.3% underlying K%.

The #5 field in the game for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Because flyball batters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Mitch Keller and his 31.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today’s game facing 0 opposing GB bats.

Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.

In his last outing, Mitch Keller turned in a great performance and gave up 1 ER.

Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Ke’Bryan Hayes will not have the upper hand today.

In the past 7 days, Ke’Bryan Hayes’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 90.3 mph to 82.6 mph.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 8.5% on the season to 3.2% over the last two weeks.

Bryan Reynolds has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Bryan Reynolds’s launch angle this year (4.3°) is significantly worse than his 9.1° mark last season.

Bryan Reynolds’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (4.8° in the last week’s worth of games) is considerably worse than his 10° seasonal mark.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 5.4°, Fernando Tatis Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.1°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Despite posting a .427 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has been very fortunate given the .042 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .385.

Joey Bart is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Batting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Joey Bart will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Joey Bart’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%.

When assessing his home run talent, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

This year, there has been a decline in Luis Arraez’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.67 ft/sec last year to 25.5 ft/sec currently.

Luis Arraez’s 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

This year, Luis Arraez’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 8th percentile at 87.2 mph.

Batting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Andrew McCutchen will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Today, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.6% rate (78th percentile).

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Andrew McCutchen has experienced some positive variance this year. His .361 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .325.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Dylan Cease in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent.

Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in today’s game.

Dylan Cease has gone to his change-up 5% more often this year (5.9%) than he did last season (0.9%).

Dylan Cease’s 95.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decline from last season’s 96.9-mph mark.

When it comes to his home run ability, Tyler Wade ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler Wade is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

Tyler Wade will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Wade in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

In the last two weeks, Tyler Wade has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Gavin Sheets’s BABIP ability is projected in the 23rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gavin Sheets has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gavin Sheets today.

Gavin Sheets has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph dropping to 86-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enmanuel Valdez in the 10th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

16% of the time that Enmanuel Valdez has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Extreme groundball batters like Enmanuel Valdez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

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