
STL @ MIN





Positive Match Player Stats for Cardinals vs Twins Series Game 2
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Alec Burleson is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.
Target Field sits at the 5th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.
This contest is predicted to have the 14th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Pablo Lopez in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Target Field as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.
Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Pablo Lopez in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Max Kepler will have the upper hand today.
Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Max Kepler’s launch angle lately (21.1° over the past 14 days) is considerably better than his 17.4° seasonal angle.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.
Trevor Larnach is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.
Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Trevor Larnach will have the upper hand today.
Lars Nootbaar’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.9-mph now compared to just 89.1-mph then.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.
Willi Castro is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Willi Castro will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Carpenter in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.
Matt Carpenter will hold the platoon advantage over Pablo Lopez in today’s matchup.
In terms of plate discipline, Matt Carpenter’s talent is quite strong, sporting a 2.02 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 79th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.
Royce Lewis is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
Last season, Paul Goldschmidt had an average launch angle of 12.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.2°.
Paul Goldschmidt’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 14.5% on the season to 25% over the past 14 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Paul Goldschmidt’s true offensive skill to be a .334, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .040 gap between that mark and his actual .294 wOBA.
Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Larnach will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.
The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.
Matt Wallner is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
Matt Wallner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s matchup.
Matt Carpenter’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 35.2% to 47.2%.
Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
In the past 7 days, Carlos Santana’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.4% up to 23.5%.
In the last two weeks, Carlos Santana’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 96-mph lately.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien as the 11th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his BABIP talent.
Edouard Julien will hold the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.
Brendan Donovan is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the game’s 14th-best home run hitter.
Victor Scott will hold the platoon advantage against Pablo Lopez today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run skill.
Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Willi Castro’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (14.1°) is considerably higher than his 11.1° figure last year.
Willi Castro’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 17.5% on the season to 28.6% in the last 7 days.
Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Over the past 7 days, Masyn Winn’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.4% up to 13.3%.
Nolan Arenado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal EV of 89.9-mph.
As it relates to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado’s talent is quite impressive, sporting a 2.03 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 76th percentile.
Matt Wallner will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brendan Donovan ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Batting from the opposite that Pablo Lopez throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand today.
Alec Burleson’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Ryan Jeffers will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
In the past week, Ryan Jeffers’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.5% up to 25%.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Sonny Gray’s overall pitching talent is in the 94th percentile among all SPs in baseball currently.
Sonny Gray has averaged 17.7 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 90th percentile.
It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
Rob Drake profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be behind the plate today.
Pablo Lopez’s four-seamer percentage has increased by 6% from last year to this one (34.5% to 40.5%) .
Out of all starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez’s fastball spin rate of 2206 rpm is in the 21st percentile this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.
Pablo Lopez projects as the 19th-best starting pitcher in the game currently when assessing his strikeout talent, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Pablo Lopez has averaged 94.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 86th percentile.
Pablo Lopez has put up a 13% Swinging Strike% this year, checking in at the 86th percentile.
Carlos Santana’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 15.7% on the season to 31.4% in the last 14 days.
Sonny Gray projects as the 18th-best starter in the league right now as it relates to his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Minnesota Twins with a 25.4% underlying K%.
Sonny Gray’s cutter usage has spiked by 5.4% from last year to this one (13.1% to 18.5%) .
Sonny Gray’s 2532-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 96th percentile out of all starters.
In the past week, Masyn Winn’s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.1%.
Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Edouard Julien will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Edouard Julien’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (19.9°) is considerably higher than his 16.9° angle last season.
Victor Scott has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 4.3% seasonal rate to 10% in the last two weeks.
Victor Scott has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .159 mark is considerably lower than his .264 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Last year, Willson Contreras had an average launch angle of 8.1° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 12°.
Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 15% on the season to 31% over the last two weeks.
Negative Match Player Stats with Cardinals vs Twins Series Game 2
The league’s 5th-tallest fences can be found at Target Field.
Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alec Burleson today.
Alec Burleson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph dropping to 87.5-mph over the past week.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.0) suggests that Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year with his 27.9 actual HR/600.
Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
Lars Nootbaar will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Max Kepler is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Among all major league stadiums, Target Field’s CF fences are the 10th-deepest.
Max Kepler has struggled with his Barrel%; his 12.2% rate last year has lowered to 6.7% this year.
Max Kepler’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 93.4-mph average last year has fallen to 89.1-mph.
Trevor Larnach has been pinch hit for 41% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.
The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest among every team today.
Trevor Larnach’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (2.3° in the past 14 days) is considerably worse than his 11.7° seasonal mark.
Lars Nootbaar’s 5.6° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in the game: 5th percentile.
Willi Castro’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 87.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 82.6-mph over the last 7 days.
Willi Castro’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 48.3% on the season to 21.4% in the last 7 days.
Matt Carpenter is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
This year, Matt Carpenter has been pinch hit for in 19% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.
Matt Carpenter will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.
Hitting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Royce Lewis will have a disadvantage in today’s game.
Royce Lewis pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
Royce Lewis’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 94.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 87.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Batting from the same side that Pablo Lopez throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have a tough challenge in today’s game.
Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Paul Goldschmidt today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.
Hitting from the same side that Pablo Lopez throws from, Nolan Arenado will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.
Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
Nolan Arenado will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.
This year, Matt Wallner has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 31% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.
Matt Wallner has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 27.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last week.
Matt Wallner’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 15.3% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Carpenter in the 4th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Santana in the 1st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.
Carlos Santana is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.
The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Sonny Gray, The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 17th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.
Edouard Julien has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.
33% of the time that Edouard Julien has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.
Edouard Julien has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and will be challenged by the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Brendan Donovan has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
Brendan Donovan will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Brendan Donovan’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (8.8°) is significantly worse than his 12.3° mark last season.
In the last week, Brendan Donovan has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power).
When estimating his home run ability, Victor Scott ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Victor Scott is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.
Victor Scott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Victor Scott in today’s game.
Sonny Gray will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Jeffers in today’s game.
In today’s game, Ryan Jeffers is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.5% rate (89th percentile).
Ryan Jeffers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 17.1% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Royce Lewis’s true offensive talent to be a .339, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .041 gap between that figure and his actual .380 wOBA.
Over the past week, Paul Goldschmidt’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.
Ranking in the 21st percentile for power, Willi Castro has hit 11.3 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 18th percentile when assessing his home run talent.
Pablo Lopez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn today.
Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
There has been a decrease in Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity this year, from 88.8 mph last year to 85.8 mph now, The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 16th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.
Willson Contreras, the Cardinals’s expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Target Field grades out as the #6 ballpark in the game for BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
The Minnesota Twins have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in this game.
Sonny Gray will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.7-mph mark last season has fallen to 87.5-mph.
Despite posting a .321 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has had some very good luck given the .029 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .292.
Despite posting a .322 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willi Castro has had positive variance on his side given the .021 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Pablo Lopez as the 19th-best starter in Major League Baseball currently.
Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Pablo Lopez will hold that advantage today.
Pablo Lopez will have the handedness advantage over Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s game.
Willson Contreras’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 95.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 87.5-mph over the last 7 days.
Willson Contreras has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .365 rate is a fair amount higher than his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.8% underlying K%.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.0) may lead us to conclude that Ryan Jeffers has had some very good luck this year with his 32.3 actual HR/600.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.303) implies that Carlos Santana has experienced some positive variance this year with his .329 actual wOBA.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (40.3) provides evidence that Royce Lewis has been very fortunate this year with his 47.1 actual HR/600.
As it relates to his home runs, Edouard Julien has experienced some positive variance this year. His 19.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.4.
Edouard Julien has compiled a .210 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
In the last two weeks, Victor Scott’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 90.2 mph to 87.2 mph.
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