Pirates @ Cardinals Matchup Details

Positives for the Pittsburgh Pirates Game Today

Nathan Church has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.

,A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 83°.

,Nathan Church will have the handedness advantage against Jared Jones in today’s game.

,Nathan Church will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Quinn Mathews throws from, Esmerlyn Valdez will have an edge in today’s game.

,Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jared Jones today.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 9th-worst among every team playing today.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today.

,Batting from the opposite that Quinn Mathews throws from, Jared Triolo will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Jared Triolo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Jared Triolo has been unlucky this year, notching a .281 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .017 difference.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Yorke in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

,Nick Yorke will hold the platoon advantage against Quinn Mathews in today’s matchup.

,Nick Yorke has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .218 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .267 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

,JJ Wetherholt will have the handedness advantage against Jared Jones in today’s matchup.

,When estimating his BABIP skill, Nick Gonzales is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Nick Gonzales is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 10th-best stadium in MLB for right-handed batting average.

,Batting from the opposite that Quinn Mathews throws from, Nick Gonzales will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 10th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average.

,Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jared Jones in today’s game.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

,Ivan Herrera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Bryan Reynolds has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 94.5-mph.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Spencer Horwitz ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Posting a 1.27 K/BB rate this year, Spencer Horwitz has displayed good plate discipline, placing in the 95th percentile.

,Bryan Reynolds’s BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When estimating his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Compared to his seasonal average of 15.9°, Brandon Lowe has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 34.5° mark in the last week.

,Brandon Lowe has averaged 29.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Esmerlyn Valdez, Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz).

,Quinn Mathews will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his metrics across the board.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Nick Yorke has been unlucky this year, notching a .251 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .289 — a .038 difference.

,Nick Yorke’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) has been 113.5 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 86th percentile.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Jose Fermin has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 2.8% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last 7 days.

,Jared Triolo’s BABIP ability is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Jared Jones’s overall pitching ability is in the 86th percentile out of all starters in baseball currently.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the worst venue in Major League Baseball for home runs.

,Jared Jones’s 97.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 99th percentile out of all starters.

,Among all starting pitchers, Jared Jones’s fastball spin rate of 2545 rpm is in the 96th percentile this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the league’s 13th-best home run batter.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Esmerlyn Valdez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jordan Walker ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Jared Jones will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jared Jones in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

,Checking in at the 90th percentile, Jared Jones notched a 13.4% Swinging Strike percentage this year.

,Ranking in the 89th percentile, Jared Jones has compiled a 27.8% Strikeout% this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Quinn Mathews has posted a colossal 6.43 ERA over his last 3 games started.

,The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Pittsburgh Pirates has been 119 mph this year, putting them as the #1 group of hitters in Major League Baseball by this stat.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,In the last week, Jose Fermin’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.4-mph recently.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the worst field in the league for left-handed home runs.

,Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium’s RF fences are the 2nd-deepest.

,Nathan Church has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

,In the past 14 days, Nathan Church’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 90.8 mph to 87.9 mph.

,Using Statcast metrics, Nathan Church ranks in the 25th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .262.

,When starting against a lefty on the mound this year, Esmerlyn Valdez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time.

,The #1 stadium in the game for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

,Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground in the majors — generally bad for homers.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Esmerlyn Valdez in today’s game.

,Esmerlyn Valdez has been lucky this year, notching a .384 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .062 gap.

,Nolan Gorman’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Nolan Gorman is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 84th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

,Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 47.3% to 40%.

,When estimating his home run ability, Jared Triolo ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jared Triolo is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,32% of the time that Jared Triolo has started against a southpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jared Triolo in today’s matchup.

,Nick Yorke is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Nick Yorke has been pulled from the game early 24% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year.

,Nick Yorke has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Yorke in today’s matchup.

,By putting up a .271 BABIP this year, JJ Wetherholt grades out in the 24th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Church in the 24th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Today, Nick Gonzales is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.5% rate (94th percentile).

,Nick Gonzales will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

,There has been a decrease in Nick Gonzales’s average exit velocity this season, from 88.9 mph last year to 86.1 mph now,Nick Gonzales’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 82.6-mph over the last two weeks.

,Nick Gonzales has been lucky this year, posting a .337 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .025 difference.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Alec Burleson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.3% down to 0%.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Alec Burleson’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

,Alec Burleson has been lucky this year, notching a .361 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .027 discrepancy.

,When estimating his home run ability, Nick Gonzales ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Batting from the same side that Jared Jones throws from, Ivan Herrera encounters a tough challenge today.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.

,Ivan Herrera has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,Ivan Herrera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, decreasing from 10.5% on the season to 0% over the last week.

,As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will bat from his bad side against Quinn Mathews today.

,Bryan Reynolds has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bryan Reynolds in today’s matchup.

,Bryan Reynolds’s launch angle of late (1.4° over the past two weeks) is a considerable dropoff from his 7.3° seasonal mark.

,Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,When starting against a southpaw this year, Spencer Horwitz has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.

,Hitting from the same side that Quinn Mathews throws from, Spencer Horwitz will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Today, Spencer Horwitz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (84th percentile).

,Bryan Reynolds’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 50.9% to 44.6%.

,Brandon Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Quinn Mathews will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Lowe in today’s matchup.

,Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

,Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Quinn Mathews is projected to throw 83 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers today.

,Busch Stadium profiles as the #27 park in the league for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The Pittsburgh Pirates have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Quinn Mathews in this game.

,Spencer Horwitz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 14.6%.

,Nolan Gorman has put up a .288 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 16th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Hitting from the same side that Quinn Mathews throws from, Oneil Cruz encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oneil Cruz in today’s matchup.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 5.9°, Oneil Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7.8°) over the last 14 days.

,Despite posting a .359 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Oneil Cruz has experienced some positive variance given the .019 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .340.

,In notching a .224 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Oneil Cruz finds himself in the 18th percentile.

,Nick Yorke and his 6.3° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 16th percentile, among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season.

,When estimating his home run skill, Nick Yorke ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Jose Fermin is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Jared Jones will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Fermin in today’s game.

,Jose Fermin pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,In the last 7 days, Jose Fermin’s 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 46.3%.

,In the past 14 days, Nathan Church’s 26.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

,Jared Triolo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 79.6-mph over the past week.

,Jared Triolo’s launch angle this season (5.2°) is significantly lower than his 14.2° angle last year.

,Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jared Jones is projected to throw 77 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of the day.

,It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

,Nolan Gorman’s quickness has dropped off this year. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.15 ft/sec now.

,Batting from the same side that Jared Jones throws from, Jordan Walker has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Despite posting a .362 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has had some very good luck given the .029 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

,Posting a .208 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jordan Walker is positioned in the 7th percentile.

,Based on Statcast metrics, Jordan Walker grades out in the 8th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .273.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future,Pittsburgh’s 11.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in baseball this year: #27 overall.

,Over the past 7 days, Brandon Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.9% down to 0%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 20th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

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