Red Sox vs Cubs match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Sunday, July 20th

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Red Sox vs Cubs match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Sunday, July 20th

BOS @ CHC

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Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Sunday, July 20th
20/07/25 14:20:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Red Sox vs Cubs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

When it comes to his home run skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.

Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Cade Horton today.

Hitters such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Horton who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ceddanne Rafaela’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Among all parks, Wrigley Field’s LF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.

Ceddanne Rafaela has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 20.7% in the past two weeks.

In the past 14 days, Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.7-mph over the course of the season to 102.2-mph lately.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 16.5% to 19.8%.

Marcelo Mayer will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Horton in today’s matchup.

Marcelo Mayer has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Batting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage in today’s game.

Roman Anthony has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Considering that flyball hitters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Cade Horton and his 42.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in today’s game matching up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

Cade Horton’s high utilization rate of his fastball (53% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Cade Horton has notched a 2.18 K/BB rate this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Boston Red Sox hitters collectively rank among the elite in baseball this year () as it relates to their 90.8-mph average exit velocity.

Wrigley Field projects as the #4 field in baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Cade Horton will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Among all starters, Cade Horton’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.

Cade Horton’s 2495-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 92nd percentile out of all SPs.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Carson Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today.

Carson Kelly will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Carson Kelly has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.6% rate last season to 12.4% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average ability.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Nico Hoerner will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet today.

Nico Hoerner will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage today.

In the past 14 days, Ian Happ’s 21.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.8%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.339) suggests that Ian Happ has been unlucky this year with his .311 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Trevor Story has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 95.3-mph in the past two weeks.

In the last two weeks, Trevor Story’s 22.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.3%.

When estimating his home run talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story has posted a .327 BABIP this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Alex Bregman tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Horton.

In the past two weeks, Abraham Toro’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph recently.

Abraham Toro’s launch angle this season (15.3°) is considerably better than his 12.1° figure last season.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 9th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitters such as Kyle Tucker with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Garrett Crochet who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Dansby Swanson will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 97.5-mph over the past 7 days.

Garrett Crochet projects as the 3rd-best starting pitcher in the majors right now when estimating his strikeout talent, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Garrett Crochet has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 8.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

Garrett Crochet’s four-seamer usage has decreased by 13% from last season to this one (53.7% to 40.7%) .

Jon Berti will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jon Berti will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jon Berti has been unlucky this year. His .234 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .309.

Jon Berti is in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (51.9% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Berti in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Horton today.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Over the last 14 days, Pete Crow-Armstrong has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 14.3% to 24.1%.

When estimating his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Seiya Suzuki will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball hitters like Seiya Suzuki tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Over the past 14 days, Carlos Narvaez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 99.1-mph in recent games.

Carlos Narvaez has recorded a .340 BABIP this year, placing in the 90th percentile.

Negative Match Player Stats with Red Sox vs Cubs Series Game 3

The #7 field in baseball for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

Wrigley Field has the 7th-highest average fence height in the majors.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate today.

In today’s matchup, Wilyer Abreu is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.5% rate (85th percentile).

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team playing today.

Wrigley Field grades out as the #21 field in baseball for lefty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

Batting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Wrigley Field profiles as the #21 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Marcelo Mayer is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Marcelo Mayer in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball bats like Roman Anthony tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Horton.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Roman Anthony in today’s matchup.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

Wrigley Field grades out as the #23 field in baseball for walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In Major League Baseball, Wrigley Field’s right field fences are the 5th-deepest.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cade Horton is projected to throw 81 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

Grading out in the 15th percentile, Cade Horton has recorded a 16.9% K% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Despite posting a .385 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carson Kelly has been lucky given the .059 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

Nico Hoerner has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Nico Hoerner’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.5-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 82.4-mph in the past two weeks.

Ian Happ has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will bat from his weak side (0) today against Garrett Crochet,Ian Happ has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Trevor Story encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Cade Horton throws from, Alex Bregman will have a disadvantage today.

Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Abraham Toro in the 23rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Abraham Toro is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Garrett Crochet will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Tucker today.

Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

In terms of plate discipline, Dansby Swanson’s skill is quite bad, posting a 3.94 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 21st percentile.

The Chicago Cubs (20.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters on the slate today.

With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Garrett Crochet faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Given that flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Garrett Crochet and his 46% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today’s matchup facing 3 opposing GB batters.

Garrett Crochet will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Berti in the 4th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Jon Berti is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

Jon Berti has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Jon Berti who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Garrett Crochet.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 9.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

Garrett Crochet will have the handedness advantage against Pete Crow-Armstrong in today’s matchup.

Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Seiya Suzuki has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 18.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Cade Horton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carlos Narvaez in today’s matchup.

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