Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Red Sox vs Cubs Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.

Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Colin Rea in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

The 4th-shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.

Ceddanne Rafaela has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 20.7% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 94.7-mph.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 16.5% to 19.8%.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Ceddanne Rafaela grades out in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .348.

Hitting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Marcelo Mayer has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.

Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage over Colin Rea in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Masataka Yoshida tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Colin Rea.

With a .333 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Masataka Yoshida finds himself in the 78th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Roman Anthony’s BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Roman Anthony is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Roman Anthony has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Roman Anthony ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Matt Shaw will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Shaw has had bad variance on his side this year. His .252 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .298.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Carson Kelly has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 6.6% rate last year to 12.4% this season.

Carson Kelly has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.4% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the past two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Carson Kelly ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Colin Rea has used his four-seamer 24.8% more often this season (44.7%) than he did last season (19.9%).

Colin Rea’s 2203-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Colin Rea has been lucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 3.91 mark is a good deal lower than his 4.90 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

Colin Rea has put up a 4.90 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the things a pitcher can most influence) this year, placing in the 20th percentile.

Boston Red Sox hitters jointly rank near the top of baseball this year () as it relates to their 90.8-mph average exit velocity.

The #4 field in baseball for boosting strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

Considering that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Colin Rea (36% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Colin Rea will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 18th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Nico Hoerner has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 2.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the last week.

In the last week’s worth of games, Nico Hoerner’s 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.8%.

As it relates to plate discipline, Nico Hoerner’s talent is quite good, putting up a 1.4 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 89th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Lucas Giolito.

Ian Happ has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Trevor Story has big-time power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Story.

Trevor Story has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark.

Over the past 14 days, Trevor Story’s 22.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year’s 89-mph average.

In the past two weeks, Abraham Toro’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph recently.

Abraham Toro’s launch angle this season (15.3°) is considerably higher than his 12.1° figure last year.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 9th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Dansby Swanson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph figure.

Dansby Swanson’s launch angle this season (14.1°) is considerably higher than his 10.2° angle last year.

Lucas Giolito has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future,When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Lucas Giolito in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Michael Busch has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 16.2% seasonal rate to 36% over the last 14 days.

When estimating his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Seiya Suzuki has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.5% rate last year to 18.8% this season.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Over the last 14 days, Carlos Narvaez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 99.1-mph in recent games.

Grading out in the 90th percentile, Carlos Narvaez has notched a .340 BABIP this year.

Over the last 14 days, Carlos Narvaez has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 20.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 8.8°.

Negative Match Player Stats with Red Sox vs Cubs

This year, Wilyer Abreu has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst ballpark in the league for run-scoring.

In the majors, the 7th-highest average fence height are at Wrigley Field.

The weather report calls for the 5th-most favorable pitching weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hurlers.

Wrigley Field grades out as the #21 field in baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

The #10 venue in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

Colin Rea will have the handedness advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela today.

Marcelo Mayer is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Marcelo Mayer has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 19% of the time.

In Major League Baseball, Wrigley Field’s right field fences are the 5th-deepest.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Masataka Yoshida today.

Among every team today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

Roman Anthony will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 2.9°, Roman Anthony has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.7°) in the past two weeks.

Matt Shaw is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

Lucas Giolito will have the handedness advantage against Matt Shaw in today’s game.

When estimating his home run ability, Matt Shaw ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Batting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Carson Kelly faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Carson Kelly has been lucky this year, notching a .385 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .059 deviation.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

The #7 field in the league for suppressing walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

Colin Rea has recorded an 8.6% Swinging Strike percentage this year, grading out in the 17th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Colin Rea in the 25th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Nico Hoerner has a tough challenge today.

When assessing his home run ability, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ian Happ is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of every team playing today.

Ian Happ’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 94.5-mph average last year has dropped off to 92.3-mph.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Trevor Story has a tough challenge today.

Colin Rea will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today’s matchup.

Typically, bats like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Colin Rea.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Abraham Toro in the 23rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Abraham Toro is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Tucker are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Dansby Swanson will be in a tough position in today’s game.

The Chicago Cubs projected batting order projects as the 3rd-best on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Lucas Giolito today.

Lucas Giolito’s 2231-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 24th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Lucas Giolito has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.36 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.42 — a 1.06 gap.

Chicago Cubs bats as a unit grade out 4th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 9.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Busch’s true offensive talent to be a .344, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .051 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .395 wOBA.

In today’s matchup, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.9% rate (92nd percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive ability to be a .326, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .031 deviation between that figure and his actual .357 wOBA.

Lucas Giolito will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seiya Suzuki today.

Extreme groundball bats like Seiya Suzuki tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

Hitting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Carlos Narvaez will be at a disadvantage today.

Carlos Narvaez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

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