Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Pirates vs Reds Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best park in baseball for LHB home runs.

The weather report calls for temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Will Benson will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes in today’s matchup.

Will Benson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Last year, Will Benson had an average launch angle of 14.5° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18.5°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Yorke in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the league for righty home runs.

Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest left field fences among all parks.

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team in action today.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #4 park in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Joey Bart has posted a .347 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ty France ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ty France has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jonathan India ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #4 ballpark in the league for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Paul Skenes.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Bryan De La Cruz has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz as the 20th-best batter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Oneil Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF fences among all parks.

Hunter Greene projects as the 14th-best starting pitcher in baseball currently as it relates to his strikeout skill, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Billy Cook).

Paul Clemons grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be behind the plate today.

With 7 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Hunter Greene ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher metrics in all categories, and Hunter Greene will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 79th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

TJ Friedl will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes in today’s game.

TJ Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Jake Fraley will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.

Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Jake Fraley will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Noelvi Marte will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Despite posting a .249 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Noelvi Marte has had bad variance on his side given the .038 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .287.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Over the last two weeks, Noelvi Marte’s 68.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Bryan De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 94.1-mph over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Joey Bart, the Pirates’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #1 park in the league for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Paul Skenes will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

When estimating his strikeout ability, Paul Skenes projects as the 7th-best starter in the game right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Throwing 95.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Paul Skenes ranks in the 93rd percentile.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Will Benson).

Paul Skenes was rolling in his previous GS and notched 7 strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Negative Match Player Stats with Pirates vs Reds Series Game 3

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Will Benson is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

This year, Will Benson has been pinch hit for in 34% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.268) implies that Will Benson has had some very good luck this year with his .290 actual wOBA.

Nick Yorke is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Nick Yorke will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Nick Yorke will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Nick Yorke has been cold of late, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) over the last 7 days.

Putting up a lowly an 83.2-mph average exit velocity in the past 7 days, Nick Yorke has been in a slump in recent games.

Joey Bart is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Joey Bart will be in a tough position today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joey Bart in today’s matchup.

Joey Bart has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Joey Bart’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 93.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 88.5-mph in the past 14 days.

Paul Skenes will hold the platoon advantage against Ty France in today’s matchup.

Ty France has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 14 days.

Over the past 7 days, Ty France’s 5.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.4%.

Paul Skenes will have the handedness advantage over Jonathan India today.

In the last two weeks, Jonathan India’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

In the last 7 days, Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 90.4 mph to 83.6 mph.

Jonathan India’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 16.1% on the season to 6.7% over the last week.

Ranking in the 25th percentile for power, Jonathan India has averaged 12.4 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Elly De La Cruz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.2°, Elly De La Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.1°) in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Elly De La Cruz’s true offensive talent to be a .331, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .019 gap between that mark and his actual .350 wOBA.

Paul Skenes will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today’s game.

Tyler Stephenson has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Stephenson has had positive variance on his side this year. His .341 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.

When it comes to his home run skill, Isiah Kiner-Falefa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a tough challenge today.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88.8-mph average last season has fallen to 85.7-mph.

Over the past two weeks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 87.6 mph to 83.1 mph.

Hunter Greene will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan De La Cruz in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryan De La Cruz today.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Bryan De La Cruz’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (6.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 16.6°.

Based on Statcast data, Bryan De La Cruz grades out in the 20th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .287.

Grading out in the 13th percentile, Bryan De La Cruz sports a .280 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Oneil Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

In the last week, Oneil Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16% down to 0%.

Oneil Cruz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, going from 13.2% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

As it relates to plate discipline, Oneil Cruz’s skill is quite bad, putting up a 3.89 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 17th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Hunter Greene to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 50 pitches.

Given that groundball batters hold a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Hunter Greene and his 40.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in this game facing 1 opposing GB hitters.

Hunter Greene has utilized his slider 5.8% less often this year (34.7%) than he did last year (40.5%).

Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 9°, Bryan Reynolds has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.2°) over the last 14 days.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 13.7% on the season to 5.6% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Yorke in the 20th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.4°, Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly in recent games (3.8° in the past 14 days).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 7th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

In the past week, TJ Friedl’s 6.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.6%.

As it relates to his home runs, TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance this year. His 25.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.4.

TJ Friedl has posted a .224 batting average this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Fraley in the 14th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Jake Fraley has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 15% of the time.

There has been a significant decline in Jake Fraley’s launch angle from last year’s 16.3° to 10.6° this season.

In terms of his batting average, Jake Fraley has been very fortunate this year. His .275 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .232.

Noelvi Marte is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Paul Skenes will have the handedness advantage against Noelvi Marte in today’s game.

Noelvi Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Noelvi Marte’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.

Noelvi Marte’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Paul Skenes as the 2nd-best starting pitcher in the majors right now.

Paul Skenes is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all parks — in this game.

Paul Skenes was on point in his last outing and gave up 1 ER.

Paul Skenes’s 98.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 100th percentile out of all starters.

Over his previous 3 GS, Paul Skenes has suffered a substantial decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2243 rpm over the entire season to 2161 rpm in recent games.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.285) suggests that Jake Fraley has had some very good luck this year with his .312 actual wOBA.

This year, Will Benson’s 12.2% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 18th percentile among his peers.

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