Phillies @ Reds Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Philadelphia Phillies Series Game 3 Game Today

Bryson Stott’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Bryson Stott is penciled in 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 88°.

,Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today’s matchup… and even better, Singer has a huge platoon split.

,Bryson Stott has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

,The #1 field in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

,J.T. Realmuto has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

,The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams today.

,Throwing 92.2 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Brady Singer places in the 80th percentile.

,It is anticipated that we will see a Huge Pitchers Umpire (Mike Estabrook) in charge of the strike zone in this game.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher metrics across the board, and Brady Singer will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Among all starters, Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate of 2438.2 rpm is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

,Alec Bohm’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Alec Bohm is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Alec Bohm has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

,Noelvi Marte is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

,In the league, Great American Ball Park’s LF fences are the 5th-shallowest.

,Noelvi Marte will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today’s game… and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.

,Edwin Arroyo pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Edwin Arroyo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,When assessing his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 park in baseball for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The 8th-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Great American Ball Park.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,Spencer Steer is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

,Spencer Steer will hold the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo today… and even more favorably, Luzardo has a large platoon split.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 6th-best batter in MLB when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

,Elly De La Cruz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Brady Singer has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in baseball on balls in play this year with a .314 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

,Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

,Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

,Eugenio Suarez will hold the platoon advantage over Jesus Luzardo today… and even more favorably, Luzardo has a large platoon split.

,Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,Given Jesus Luzardo’s large platoon split, Tyler Stephenson will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

,Tyler Stephenson has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage today.

,JJ Bleday pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Extreme flyball bats like JJ Bleday generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and JJ Bleday will hold that advantage today.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 11th-best batter in the game.

,Bryce Harper is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

,Bryce Harper will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today’s matchup… and moreover, Singer has a huge platoon split.

,Noelvi Marte’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky this year, putting up a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .051 gap.

,When estimating his BABIP talent, Justin Crawford is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Because of Brady Singer’s huge platoon split, Justin Crawford will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

,Justin Crawford has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,JJ Bleday’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 18.4% to 21.6%.

,The Cincinnati Reds have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games,Because of his large platoon split, Jesus Luzardo meets a tough challenge being matched up with 8 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side in today’s matchup.

,Because of Brady Singer’s huge platoon split, Gabriel Rincones will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.

,Gabriel Rincones has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.1% seasonal rate to 20% over the past 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,Sal Stewart is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

,Sal Stewart will hold the platoon advantage over Jesus Luzardo today… and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.

,Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Bryce Harper has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Brady Singer today… and the cherry on top, Singer has a huge platoon split.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league’s 3rd-best home run hitter.

,Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Brady Singer in today’s matchup… and even better, Singer has a huge platoon split.

,When estimating his home run ability, Matt McLain ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Matt McLain will have the handedness advantage over Jesus Luzardo in today’s matchup… and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.

,Matt McLain has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the game.

,Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Jesus Luzardo has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 6.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Compared to his seasonal average of 12.3°, J.T. Realmuto has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 18.1° angle in the past 14 days.

,Edwin Arroyo’s BABIP ability is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Elly De La Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, JJ Bleday ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jesus Luzardo projects as the 14th-best starter in the game currently when it comes to his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Cincinnati Reds with a 25.5% underlying K%.

,Jesus Luzardo was firing on all cylinders in his previous game started and compiled 7 strikeouts.

,Matt McLain will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

,Matt McLain’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 16% to 22.5%.

Negatives with the Cincinnati Reds Series Game 3 Game Today

Bryson Stott will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Bryson Stott’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 92.4 mph to 85 mph.

,J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

,Brady Singer will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.T. Realmuto in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Singer’s huge platoon split.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for J.T. Realmuto today.

,J.T. Realmuto’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, falling from 41.1% on the season to 34.8% over the last two weeks.

,With a .276 wOBA in the last two weeks’ worth of games, J.T. Realmuto has been struggling at the plate.

,Tyler Stephenson, the Reds’s expected catcher today, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Because of his huge platoon split, Brady Singer will have a tough matchup matching up with 6 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s game.

,Brady Singer’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (90.6 mph) below where it was last year (91.6 mph).

,Brady Singer has utilized his sinker 6.4% more often this year (47.2%) than he did last year (40.8%).

,Given Brady Singer’s huge platoon split, Alec Bohm will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

,Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,From last season to this one, Alec Bohm’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 49% to 39.3%.

,Ranking in the 16th percentile, Alec Bohm has put up a .282 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

,Placing in the 3rd percentile, Alec Bohm has notched a .232 BABIP this year.

,Typically, batters like Noelvi Marte who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jesus Luzardo.

,Noelvi Marte has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the last 7 days.

,There has been a significant decline in Noelvi Marte’s launch angle from last year’s 12.9° to 7.2° this year.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.0) suggests that Noelvi Marte has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 23.8 actual HR/600.

,With a .291 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Noelvi Marte has performed in the 19th percentile for hitting ability.

,When estimating his home run talent, Edwin Arroyo ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Edwin Arroyo is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

,Over the last 14 days, Edwin Arroyo’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 87.8 mph to 79.8 mph.

,Edwin Arroyo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, falling from 15.3% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

,In the last 14 days, Edwin Arroyo has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brandon Marsh in today’s game.

,Brandon Marsh’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 92-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 88.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Marsh’s true offensive talent to be a .322, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .037 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .359 wOBA.

,Brandon Marsh has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 4th percentile with a 5.43 K/BB rate.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Spencer Steer is in the 23rd percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .298.

,As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will face a mismatch against Jesus Luzardo and his large platoon split today.

,Typically, bats like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jesus Luzardo.

,It may be best to expect positive regression for the Philadelphia Phillies offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best park in the majors for home runs.

,Spencer Steer has put up a .218 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Eugenio Suarez’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Eugenio Suarez’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 90.2-mph mark last season has decreased to 86.7-mph.

,Using Statcast data, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 4th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .201.

,By putting up a 3.79 K/BB rate this year, Eugenio Suarez has displayed weak plate discipline, ranking in the 16th percentile.

,Eugenio Suarez has posted a .210 batting average this year, ranking in the 13th percentile.

,Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

,Utilizing Statcast metrics, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 24th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .230.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Bleday in the 10th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,JJ Bleday is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

,Given Jesus Luzardo’s large platoon split, JJ Bleday will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today.

,Over the past two weeks, JJ Bleday’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%.

,JJ Bleday has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 83-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Bryce Harper will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Bryce Harper has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

,In the past week, Bryce Harper’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.7%.

,Noelvi Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined of late, decreasing from 35.4% on the season to 29.6% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Justin Crawford is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Justin Crawford will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Justin Crawford’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 80.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,Compared to his seasonal mark of 2.2°, Justin Crawford has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.4°) in the past 14 days.

,Over the past 14 days, Justin Crawford has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jesus Luzardo as the 10th-best starting pitcher in the league currently.

,Jesus Luzardo is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.

,Jesus Luzardo has relied on his four-seam fastball 9.1% less often this year (24.8%) than he did last season (33.9%).

,Jesus Luzardo’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Rincones in the 20th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

,Gabriel Rincones is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Gabriel Rincones has been pulled from the game early 37% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

,Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gabriel Rincones in today’s matchup.

,Sal Stewart has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 14.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 7.1% over the past week.

,Over the past week, Sal Stewart’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 93.4 mph to 90.9 mph.

,Over the last 7 days, Sal Stewart’s 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.6%.

,Alec Bohm’s launch angle lately (1.8° in the last two weeks) is significantly worse than his 9.2° seasonal mark.

,Utilizing Statcast metrics, Alec Bohm grades out in the 13th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 8.800.

,Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Schwarber today.

,Over the past week, Kyle Schwarber’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 19.3% down to 0%.

,Kyle Schwarber’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 16.6% on the season to 0% in the past two weeks.

,Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year, notching a .393 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .370 — a .023 difference.

,Matt McLain is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

,Matt McLain’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 93.1-mph figure last season has fallen to 90.4-mph.

,With a .286 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Matt McLain is positioned in the 14th percentile for hitting ability.

,Matt McLain has posted a .282 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

,Matt McLain has recorded a .327 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Justin Crawford in the 1st percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Eugenio Suarez has notched a .285 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 19th percentile.

,Utilizing Statcast metrics, Bryson Stott is in the 21st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 12.300.

,J.T. Realmuto is in the 25th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (13.5% rate this year).

,JJ Bleday has put up a .263 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 5th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,In the past 14 days, Sal Stewart’s 13.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.4%.

,Tyler Stephenson’s launch angle recently (6.3° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 18.4° seasonal figure.

,Jesus Luzardo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,This season, there has been a decline in Matt McLain’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.17 ft/sec last year to 28.58 ft/sec currently.

,Using Statcast data, Matt McLain is in the 11th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .216.

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