Brewers @ Cardinals Series Game 5 Matchup Details

Positives for the Milwaukee Brewers Series Game 5 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

,Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.

,The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

,Hitting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, JJ Wetherholt will have an edge in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Nathan Church will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Nathan Church are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Henderson.

,Nathan Church will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Alec Burleson’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

,Batting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 87th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

,Jake Bauers is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,Jake Bauers will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

,Batting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand today.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Bauers ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The #9 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

,Masyn Winn hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage today.

,Over the last 7 days, Cooper Pratt’s 9.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 2.6%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jimmy Crooks in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Hitting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Jimmy Crooks will have an edge in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jimmy Crooks will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

,Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

,Ivan Herrera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Busch Stadium ranks as the #9 park in the game for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Christian Yelich is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Christian Yelich will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Garrett Mitchell will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,When it comes to his home run ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,The St. Louis Cardinals projected offense grades out as the 5th-best of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.

,It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Todd Tichenor) calling pitches in today’s game.

,Given that groundball batters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Logan Henderson and his 40.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot today squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Andre Pallante in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent.

,It may be best to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

,Joey Ortiz has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last year’s 86.2-mph figure.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Ortiz’s true offensive talent to be a .297, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .048 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .249 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Jimmy Crooks and his 17.1° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 83rd percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

,William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Logan Henderson in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in baseball.

,Ranking in the 86th percentile, Logan Henderson compiled a 12.8% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season.

,Grading out in the 99th percentile, Logan Henderson has compiled a 32.7% K% since the start of last season.

,Garrett Mitchell has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 16.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past two weeks.

,The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Greg Jones, Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers).

,Because groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante (56.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 6 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.

,Andre Pallante will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his metrics across the board.

,It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has utilized his secondary pitches 7.9% more often this season (50.7%) than he did last year (42.8%).

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Christian Yelich ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals Series Game 5 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs.

,Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

,JJ Wetherholt’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 94.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 92.1-mph over the last 7 days.

,Nathan Church is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

,In the league, Busch Stadium’s right field dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.

,Nathan Church has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 82.9-mph in the last week.

,Over the past 7 days, Alec Burleson’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.7%.

,When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Jake Bauers has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time.

,Out of all the teams today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Bauers in today’s matchup.

,There has been a significant decline in Lars Nootbaar’s launch angle from last year’s 15.9° to 6.7° this year.

,Lars Nootbaar’s launch angle in recent games (1.8° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit worse than his 6.7° seasonal mark.

,Jake Bauers’s launch angle this season (10.4°) is significantly lower than his 16.6° mark last year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Masyn Winn is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Busch Stadium profiles as the #30 ballpark in baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Hitting from the same side that Logan Henderson throws from, Masyn Winn faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cooper Pratt in the 11th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,Cooper Pratt is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

,Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground among all parks — generally bad for dingers.

,Andre Pallante will have the handedness advantage over Cooper Pratt in today’s matchup.

,Jimmy Crooks is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Posting a .194 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jimmy Crooks is positioned in the 4th percentile for offensive skills.

,Andre Pallante will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio in today’s matchup.

,Jackson Chourio will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year, notching a .372 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .352 — a .020 gap.

,Logan Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Ivan Herrera in today’s game.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.

,Over the last two weeks, Ivan Herrera’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 89.9 mph to 77.5 mph.

,In the last 7 days, Ivan Herrera’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.6%.

,Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Typically, hitters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.

,Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Christian Yelich in today’s game.

,Garrett Mitchell has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 18% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

,Today, Garrett Mitchell is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.8% rate (92nd percentile).

,Extreme groundball hitters like Garrett Mitchell tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

,Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.6-mph mark last season has fallen to 86.6-mph.

,Masyn Winn’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 14.8% to 10.3%.

,Logan Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Walker in today’s game.

,Compared to his seasonal mark of 12°, Jordan Walker has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.1°) in the last 14 days.

,Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has been very fortunate given the .030 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Logan Henderson in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching abilities.

,The #1 park in baseball for suppressing home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

,Logan Henderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.

,Nathan Church has notched a .262 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Christian Yelich’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 42.1% on the season to 25% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Andre Pallante has posted an 8.5% Swinging Strike% this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.

,Milwaukee’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #8 overall.

,Jimmy Crooks has notched a .164 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 24th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,This year, Joey Ortiz has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 12% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

,Andre Pallante will have the handedness advantage against Joey Ortiz today.

,By putting up a .273 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jordan Walker is positioned in the 8th percentile for hitting ability.

,Garrett Mitchell will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Andre Pallante will have the handedness advantage over William Contreras in today’s matchup.

,Extreme flyball hitters like William Contreras tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for William Contreras in today’s game.

,In the last 7 days, William Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

,Joey Ortiz has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Typically, hitters like Joey Ortiz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Andre Pallante.

,Cooper Pratt will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,Using Statcast data, Jordan Walker ranks in the 7th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .208.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Logan Henderson to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.9% underlying K%.

,Busch Stadium profiles as the #29 venue in the league for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Andre Pallante in the 20th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

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