Phillies @ Cubs Matchup Details

Positives for the Philadelphia Phillies Game Today

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.

,Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Colin Rea in today’s matchup.

,Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea doesn’t generate many whiffs (15th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Moises Ballesteros in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

,Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Moises Ballesteros will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Moises Ballesteros has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Moises Ballesteros will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Grading out in the 87th percentile, J.T. Realmuto has notched a .327 BABIP since the start of last season.

,When assessing his BABIP talent, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Brandon Marsh is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

,Batting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage today.

,Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 9th-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average ability.

,Trea Turner is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

,Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums.

,Using Statcast data, Trea Turner is in the 78th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .342.

,Trea Turner has notched a .293 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Michael Busch is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Michael Busch will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Carson Kelly ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today.

,Carson Kelly has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last year’s 89-mph EV.

,Carson Kelly’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 42.8% to 56.1%.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Aaron Nola’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 75th percentile out of all SPs in baseball right now.

,Aaron Nola has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

,Wrigley Field ranks as the #21 park in the majors for batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,In Major League Baseball, Wrigley Field’s RF dimensions are the 5th-deepest.

,When assessing his home run talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage over Aaron Nola in today’s matchup.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 92.1-mph now compared to just 89.3-mph then.

,Brandon Marsh has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 90.8-mph.

,When estimating his home run ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

,Adolis Garcia’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 17.7% to 20.8%.

,When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Dansby Swanson pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Dansby Swanson will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Dansby Swanson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 16.8% to 20%.

,Bryce Harper projects as the 11th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

,Batting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge in today’s game.

,Bryce Harper has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ian Happ is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

,As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Aaron Nola in today’s matchup.

,Ian Happ will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Ian Happ has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 10.1% rate last year to 16.7% this season.

,As it relates to his BABIP ability, Justin Crawford is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Justin Crawford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colin Rea in today’s matchup.

,Justin Crawford has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Justin Crawford has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 2.4% seasonal rate to 9.1% in the last 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 3rd-best park in the game for strikeouts.

,Colin Rea will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats in all categories.

,Colin Rea has used his change-up 5.2% more often this season (17.5%) than he did last season (12.3%).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 11th-best batter in MLB when estimating his batting average skill.

,Nico Hoerner is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

,Nico Hoerner will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

,Nico Hoerner has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 87.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 85.7-mph figure.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Seiya Suzuki will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

,Seiya Suzuki has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .342 mark is a fair amount lower than his .384 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Dansby Swanson’s launch angle lately (18.4° over the past week) is considerably better than his 13.4° seasonal mark.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Moises Ballesteros in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive talent to be a .316, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .076 disparity between that figure and his actual .240 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Aaron Nola in the 79th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

,In his previous outing, Aaron Nola was rolling and compiled 7 strikeouts.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colin Rea today.

,Bryson Stott has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,In terms of plate discipline, Bryson Stott’s skill is quite impressive, sporting a 1.77 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 79th percentile.

,Carson Kelly has been hot recently, posting a a 16% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the league.

,Kyle Schwarber has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 21% rate last season to 27.8% this season.

,Nico Hoerner’s launch angle this year (15.8°) is quite a bit better than his 12.4° angle last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Trea Turner ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Trea Turner’s launch angle lately (19.6° in the past week) is quite a bit higher than his 14.8° seasonal angle.

,Over the last week, Justin Crawford’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.6-mph over the course of the season to 91.7-mph of late.

Negatives with the Chicago Cubs Game Today

Wrigley Field has the 7th-tallest fences in the league.

,Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-coldest temperature on the schedule today at 44°.

,Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Schwarber in today’s game.

,Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (42.2) suggests that Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 45.8 actual HR/600.

,Moises Ballesteros is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

,When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Moises Ballesteros has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 55% of the time.

,The #4 park in the league for suppressing offensive stats to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

,J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Wrigley Field projects as the #26 field in MLB for overall right-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Colin Rea will hold the platoon advantage against J.T. Realmuto in today’s game.

,The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team playing today.

,Brandon Marsh will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Hitting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Trea Turner will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 8th-worst ballpark in the league for lefty batting average.

,Moises Ballesteros’s quickness has decreased this year. His 25.96 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 22.99 ft/sec now.

,This year, Michael Busch has been pinch hit for in 15% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Michael Busch pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 79th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Carson Kelly is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Batting from the same side that Aaron Nola throws from, Carson Kelly will have a disadvantage today.

,The Chicago Cubs projected offense grades out as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

,Aaron Nola will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,Chicago Cubs hitters collectively grade out 5th- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 9.8% Barrel%.

,As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 3rd-best in the game.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.2% rate last season has dropped to 4.2% this year.

,Brandon Marsh has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 7 days.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Brandon Marsh’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.6%.

,Batting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Adolis Garcia will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Adolis Garcia has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.

,Wrigley Field profiles as the #24 stadium in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Batting from the same side that Aaron Nola throws from, Alex Bregman has a tough challenge today.

,Over the past 7 days, Alex Bregman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

,Alex Bregman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 83.8-mph over the past week.

,Dansby Swanson is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Aaron Nola will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dansby Swanson in today’s matchup.

,Dansby Swanson’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 89.4-mph seasonal average has fallen to 86.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryce Harper today.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.2) implies that Bryce Harper has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 28.0 actual HR/600.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Colin Rea in the 25th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching skills.

,The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

,It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Philadelphia Phillies offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

,Colin Rea’s 2139-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 11th percentile among all starting pitchers.

,Given the 0.84 disparity between Colin Rea’s 3.92 ERA and his 4.76 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season and should perform worse in future games.

,Justin Crawford is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

,This year, Justin Crawford has been pinch hit for in 16% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

,When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Colin Rea in the 20th percentile among all SPs in the majors.

,Colin Rea struggled when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and notched 2 Ks.

,Ranking in the 23rd percentile, Colin Rea put up a 9.1% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season.

,J.T. Realmuto has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Aaron Nola will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner in today’s game.

,Nico Hoerner has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 8.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 3.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Aaron Nola will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seiya Suzuki in today’s game.

,Over the past 14 days, Seiya Suzuki has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

,Moises Ballesteros has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .398 mark is a good deal higher than his .333 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nico Hoerner’s true offensive ability to be a .321, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .077 gap between that mark and his actual .398 wOBA.

,Considering the 0.32 gap between Aaron Nola’s 9.33 K/9 and his 9.01 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and should see negative regression in future games.

,Bryson Stott is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Bryson Stott has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time.

,There has been a decrease in Michael Busch’s average exit velocity this season, from 92.2 mph last year to 82.9 mph now,Bryson Stott will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adolis Garcia in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 5th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,From last season to this one, Trea Turner’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 91.8 mph to 88.1 mph.

,When estimating his home run ability, Justin Crawford ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

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