Padres vs Cubs match player stats | Playoffs 2025 Tuesday, September 30th

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SD @ CHC

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Padres @ Cubs Matchup Details

Teams : San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Postseason Series :
Date : Todays Game is on Tuesday, September 30th
Time : 30/09/25 15:08:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the San Diego Padres Game Postseason Today

Jackson Merrill’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the best pitching conditions of all games on the slate.

Jackson Merrill has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Matt Shaw pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Matt Shaw will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Matt Shaw has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 6.9% seasonal rate to 13.6% over the past two weeks.

Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today.

By putting up a 1.76 K/BB rate this year, Carson Kelly has displayed impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 79th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Carson Kelly ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Carson Kelly’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 16.7% on the season to 27.3% over the last week.

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.

Wrigley Field ranks as the #22 ballpark in the league for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In the majors, Wrigley Field’s RF dimensions are the 5th-deepest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 91st percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Wrigley Field as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

Given that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Nick Pivetta (40.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.

Nick Pivetta has gone to his curveball 5.8% more often this year (22.3%) than he did last year (16.5%).

Nick Pivetta has been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .241 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Nico Hoerner will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Nico Hoerner has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 87.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Ian Happ is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Matthew Boyd in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent.

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Matthew Boyd in the 75th percentile among all SPs in MLB.

Matthew Boyd will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats across the board.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors.

Kyle Tucker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Kyle Tucker will have the upper hand in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Ryan O’Hearn grades out in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (18.6% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Ryan O’Hearn’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 40.8% to 47.3%.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Manny Machado will have an edge in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Jake Cronenworth has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 95.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 15% on the season to 25% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

With a 1.55 K/BB rate this year, Jake Cronenworth has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the upper hand today.

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Luis Arraez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

In the last 7 days, Luis Arraez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 1.1% up to 7.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 3rd-best batter in the majors when estimating his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson’s launch angle this season (13.6°) is considerably higher than his 10.2° angle last season.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.340) suggests that Gavin Sheets has had bad variance on his side this year with his .323 actual wOBA.

Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Freddy Fermin will have an advantage in today’s game.

Freddy Fermin has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph EV.

Compared to his seasonal average of 13.7°, Freddy Fermin has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.2° mark over the past two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Michael Busch ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Busch is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

Michael Busch will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today’s game.

When estimating his home run ability, Michael Busch ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Negatives with the Chicago Cubs Game Postseason Today

The #5 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.

Hitting from the same side that Matthew Boyd throws from, Jackson Merrill will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

The #7 venue in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

The league’s 7th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Wrigley Field.

Matt Shaw is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Matt Shaw will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Wrigley Field profiles as the #22 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the worst among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 12th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Carson Kelly will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Carson Kelly has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 10.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 4.5% over the last two weeks.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Xander Bogaerts in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts has paced 12.1 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 21st percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Pivetta to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Nick Pivetta has been lucky this year, notching a 2.87 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.01 — a 1.14 gap.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Chicago Cubs with a 20.9% underlying K%.

Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home run skill, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.2°, Nico Hoerner has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.9°) over the past 14 days.

Ian Happ has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days.

Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 20.1% to 15.4%.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Boyd is projected to throw 76 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate today.

The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the San Diego Padres.

Carson Kelly, the Cubs’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.8% underlying K%.

Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Kyle Tucker has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Ryan O’Hearn has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Matthew Boyd will have the handedness advantage over Ryan O’Hearn today.

Ryan O’Hearn will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Manny Machado in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

Matthew Boyd will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth today.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 48.8% to 40.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 0th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Hitting from the same side that Matthew Boyd throws from, Luis Arraez meets a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Nick Pivetta will hold the platoon advantage against Dansby Swanson in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 88.4-mph in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 23rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Batting from the same side that Matthew Boyd throws from, Gavin Sheets will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Freddy Fermin is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Freddy Fermin will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Freddy Fermin has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .280 rate is inflated compared to his .261 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Michael Busch has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.

Michael Busch pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Michael Busch has been lucky this year, compiling a .369 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .346 — a .023 difference.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Seiya Suzuki in today’s game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Seiya Suzuki are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Seiya Suzuki’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 91.5-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 88.4-mph in the past two weeks.

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