Initially published on July 15 at 1:44 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Thursday, 8/21/25, at 8:45 a.m. Eastern.
Updated (again) on Wednesday, 8/27/25, at 9:07 a.m. Eastern.
Kentucky opens its season in Week 1 at Kroger Field by hosting Toledo at 12:45 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
As of July 15, most books had the Wildcats installed as 10 or 10.5-point home favorites with a total of 48.5. DraftKings had the Rockets with +295 money-line odds.
UPDATE #1: The double-digit number is long gone five weeks after I originally published this article. As of Aug. 21, most spots had reduced Kentucky to a 7.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 48 or 48.5. The Rockets were in the +220 to +245 range to win outright.
UPDATE #2 on Aug. 27: As of Wednesday morning, most spots had UK at -9 with a total of 48 points about 75 hours and change before kickoff. The line started moving back up from -7.5 on Tuesday morning (8/26). DraftKings is actually up to -9.5.
Kentucky finished 2024 with a 4-8 straight-up record and 7-5 against-the-spread mark, which was its fewest wins since Mark Stoops went 2-10 in his first season back in 2013. The ‘Cats also saw their eight-year streak of bowl game appearances ended.
Things haven’t gone much better for UK in the offseason. The ‘Cats saw two outstanding wide receivers transfer to other schools when Dane Key and Barion Brown bolted out of Lexington.
Key, who I’ve consistently called one of the SEC’s most underrated players for the last two years, took off for Nebraska. In three years at UK, he played in 38 games and produced 126 catches for 1,870 yards and 14 touchdowns. Key had 47 receptions for 715 yards and two TDs in 2024.
Brown played in 37 games during his three years at Kentucky. He caught 122 balls for 1,528 receiving yards and 11 TDs.
Brown also has five career kickoff returns for TDs, and that ranks #1 in SEC history and #11 in NCAA annals. He led the nation in kickoff returns for TDs with three in 2023 and was also #1 in average yards per KO return (36.0). Brown is an outstanding addition for LSU in 2025.
Kentucky struggled mightily on offense last year, averaging a pedestrian 20.6 points per game. The ‘Cats got mediocre QB plays with three signal callers combining for an abysmal 15/16 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Stoops and his staff are hoping to change that with the addition of Zach Calzada, who has spent the last two seasons playing FCS ball at Incarnate Word, the same program that produced Cam Ward before he played at Washington St. and Miami. In 22 starts at Incarnate Word, he completed 66.0 percent of his throws for 6,144 passing yards with a 53/17 TD-INT ratio.
Calzada started his career at Texas A&M in 2019 when he connected on 12-of-24 passes (50.0%) for 133 yards and two TDs with one interception in three games. He made 10 starts for the Aggies in 2021, completing 184-of-328 throws (56.1%) for 2,185 yards with a 17/9 TD-INT ratio.
Calzada transferred to Auburn for the 2022 campaign but didn’t play due to injuries.
According to the 247Sports Composite, UK brought in the country’s #28 overall recruiting class. The group consists of 46 commits, including 13 four-star players.
The Wildcats got hit hard by defections, but they also landed the nation’s #10 transfer-specific class. That’s a group of 25 players that includes six four-star additions and 13 transfers from Power Four programs.
The four-star imports include EDGE Kam Olds (Kent St.), OT Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green), DT David Gusta (Washington St.), OT Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico St.), EDGE Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace (South Dakota) and WR Kendrick Law (Alabama).
Olds recorded 42 tackles, seven tackles for loss, six sacks and one interception last year, while Gusta had 21 tackles, three TFL’s and one sack. Humphrey-Grace was a first-team FCS All-American after producing 64 tackles, 18.5 TFL’s and 9.5 sacks in 2024. In three seasons at Alabama, Law started eight times in 34 games and had 33 catches for 343 yards and one TD.
UK returns five starters and four of its top-six tacklers from an excellent defense that surrendered an average of only 22.1 PPG despite minimal assistance from the other side of the ball. CB Maxwell Hairston, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2023 and first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, missed five games due to an injury, too.
Hairston’s absence allowed CB DJ Waller to get four starts, though, and that’ll benefit him this year as the starting corner opposite of senior JQ Hardaway, who started all 12 games in 2024 and had 47 tackles, four passes broken up and a pair of interceptions.
Kentucky will be strong in the secondary with senior free safety Jordan Lovett and strong safety Ty Bryant back in the mix. Lovett recorded 63 tackles, two interceptions and one TFL last year, and Bryant had 46 tackles, two TFL’s and one interception.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have UK #59 at RB, #48 on the offensive line, #70 on the defensive line, #60 at LB, #36 in the secondary and #50 on special teams. The Wildcats bring back 32 lettermen and lost 30.
Steele’s preseason magazine has UK ranked #50 in his Power Rankings. Steele’s mag has UK punter Aidan Laros as a preseason second-team All-SEC selection, while Wollschlaeger and OG Josh Braun are preseason third-team All-SEC choices. Braun, another transfer like Wollschlaeger, has plenty of SEC experience, starting 32 games at Florida and Arkansas during his collegiate career.
Toledo finished 2024 with an 8-5 SU record and a 6-7 ATS mark. Jason Candle’s squad went 2-0 in games against Power Four competition, including a 48-46 win over Pitt in six overtimes at the Gameabove Bowl. The Rockets beat the Panthers outright as 6.5-point underdogs.
Toledo won outright in all three of its underdog spots last year, including a 41-17 win at Mississippi St. as a 10.5-point road underdog and 13-6 win at No. Illinois as a 2.5-point road ‘dog. The Rockets led the Bulldogs 35-3 more than midway through the third quarter.
Then-junior QB Tucker Gleason put on a show in Starkville, completing 23-of-28 passes for 285 yards and three TDs without an interception. He added 40 rushing yards on 10 attempts.
Gleason started his career at Ga. Tech in 2020. Then he transferred to Toledo and is entering his fifth season in the program after redshirting in 2021. The senior signal caller started only three times from 2021-23, but he played in 26 games and had a 12/4 TD-INT ratio with three rushing TDs.
Gleason started 12 of 13 games last year, connecting on 233-of-385 (60.5%) passes for 2,808 yards with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio. He had 364 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. Steele has Gleason as a preseason second-team All-MAC selection.
Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Toledo #58 at QB, #58 at RB, #43 at WR, #59 on the o-line, #47 on the d-line, #26 in the secondary and #33 on special teams.
Gleason’s favorite target is senior WR Junior Vandeross, a 5-foot-8 speedster. He had 85 receptions for 957 yards and five TDs in 2024.
The Rockets poached MAC rival No. Illinois’ top WR via the transfer portal. Tayvon Rudolph had 37 catches for 392 yards and one TD last season, and he also produced 179 rushing yards and two TDs on only 14 attempts for a 12.8 YPC average. In 44 games for the Huskies in four seasons, he had 153 receptions for 2,047 yards and 10 TDs.
Rudolph, who is a three-time All-MAC selection, has 474 career rushing yards and four TDs with a 10.8 YPC average. He also has 1,440 career yards on kick returns with one TD and a 23.2 yards per return average. Vandeross is a preseason first-team All-MAC pick and Rudolph is a preseason second-team All-MAC choice in Steele’s mag.
Candle is hoping that RB Chip Trayanum will bring some juice to the RB position. He was a disappointment for Stoops at UK after transferring in from Ohio St. ahead of the 2024 campaign.
Trayanum didn’t touch the field for the ‘Cats until a loss at Florida in October and was then sidelined until the last two regular-season contests. He had 101 rushing yards on 19 carries (5.3 YPC) in those three games.
Trayanum started his career at Arizona St in 2020 and 2021 before spending 2022 and 2023 at Ohio St. In 39 career games, he has 1,257 rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 5.1 YPC average. Steele’s mag has Trayanum as a preseason third-team All-MAC selection.
Toledo returns five starters from a defense that gave up an average of 23.2 PPG. DT Martez Poynter, CB Avery Smith and safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren are preseason first-team All-MAC picks in Steele’s mag, while DE Louce Julien and CB Braden Awls are preseason second-team All-MAC choices.
Smith was a second-team All-MAC selection last season when he produced 58 tackles, 14 passes broken up and two interceptions. McNeil-Warren recorded 61 tackles, four PBU, 1.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble and one interception. He led the MAC and was third in the country with four forced fumbles in 2023 when he also had 69 tackles, three PBU and two interceptions.
Awls had 72 tackles, six PBU, four interceptions for 81 return yards and one TD, three TFL’s and one fumble recovery last year. Poynter had 30 tackles, seven TFL’s and 3.5 sacks in 2024.
PREDICTION: I mentioned how Toledo went into an SEC venue and dealt out a ruthless pimpslap to Mississippi St. last year. Make no mistake, the Rockets are coming to Kroger Field with an outright victory on their mind. They’ve been road underdogs only five times since 2021, thriving in those situations with a 4-1 ATS record with a pair of outright victories. I like Toledo +10.5 for one unit.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
–Here’s a video for Southeastern 16, as Jay Greeson and I discuss the Rockets against the Wildcats on Saturday in Lexington.
-Toledo backup QB John Alan Richter was the starter when Gleason was injured in a 13-6 win at No. Illinois last season. He completed 15-of-28 passes for 152 yards and one TD without an interception. In five games last year, Richter completed 64.2 percent of his throws for 497 yards and four TDs without a pick.
-Toledo returns 43 lettermen and lost just 19.
-The ‘over’ has hit in seven straight season openers for the Rockets that have produced an average combined score of 70.0 PPG.
–For more analysis on Kentucky, check out my ‘Bets & Ballgames’ podcast on Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel, as Greeson and I break down UK’s season win total (4.5) and much more.
-Speaking of season win totals, FanDuel has Toledo’s at 8.5 (‘over’ -115, ‘under’ -105). The Rockets are +270 ‘chalk’ to win the MAC Championship Game. Ohio has the next-shortest odds at +300.