Reds @ D-Backs Matchup Details

Positives for the Cincinnati Reds Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.

Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Ryne Nelson.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Chase Field grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ketel Marte projects as the 10th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Pavin Smith ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Pavin Smith ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Pavin Smith will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Littell in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Pavin Smith will hold that advantage today.

Austin Hays is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for righty batting average.

Austin Hays has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year’s 91.6-mph mark.

Austin Hays’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (20° in the past 14 days) is a significant increase over his 16° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Gavin Lux is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Gavin Lux will have an advantage today.

Gavin Lux has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 3.9% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past 7 days.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 4.9% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last 7 days.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 7.5% to 11.1%.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 11.1% on the season to 36.4% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Last season, Jose Trevino had an average launch angle of 6.8° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 9.8°.

Jose Trevino’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 9.2% on the season to 25% over the last 7 days.

As it relates to his home runs, Jose Trevino has experienced some negative variance this year. His 10.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.2.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

In the past week, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.8%.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino profiles as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Zack Littell was on point in his previous game started and notched 7 strikeouts.

Considering the 0.81 gap between Zack Littell’s 6.14 K/9 and his 6.95 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see better results in the future.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season,In his last start, Zack Littell was on point and conceded 1 ER.

Miguel Andujar’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Miguel Andujar is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

Miguel Andujar has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last year’s 84.1-mph mark.

Last year, Miguel Andujar had an average launch angle of 2.4° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 8°.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Zack Littell.

Geraldo Perdomo will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last year’s 88.1-mph average.

TJ Friedl is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, TJ Friedl will have an advantage in today’s game.

TJ Friedl has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 90th percentile with a 1.47 K/BB rate.

Blaze Alexander’s BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Blaze Alexander will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Blaze Alexander has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.

Blaze Alexander’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 13% on the season to 24% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Alek Thomas will have an advantage today.

Alek Thomas will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Over the past 7 days, Alek Thomas’s maximum exit velocity (a strong proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 108.9-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in MLB.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Noelvi Marte has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last year’s 87-mph EV.

In the last 7 days, Noelvi Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph recently.

Noelvi Marte has recorded a .352 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Corbin Carroll is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage in today’s game.

Ryne Nelson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats in all categories.

Among all SPs, Ryne Nelson’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 78th percentile this year.

The 3rd-worst projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 5th-worst park in MLB for LHB home runs.

In the majors, the 10th-highest average fence height are at Chase Field.

In today’s matchup, Elly De La Cruz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (81st percentile).

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Elly De La Cruz in today’s game.

In the past 7 days, Elly De La Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams in action today.

Elly De La Cruz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 14.8% on the season to 0% over the past week.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Zack Littell,Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Ketel Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 96.8-mph average last season has fallen to 94.3-mph.

When it comes to his batting average, Ketel Marte has been lucky this year. His .293 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .260.

Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF fences among all parks.

Pavin Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 95.2-mph average last season has lowered to 91.7-mph.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Pavin Smith has been lucky this year. His .351 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.

Ryne Nelson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Hays in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Austin Hays today.

The #5 venue in MLB for suppressing home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

In the past week, Austin Hays’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.

Gavin Lux hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Gavin Lux will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Lux has experienced some positive variance this year. His .330 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .309.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 17th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 20th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Ke’Bryan Hayes will be in a tough position today.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ke’Bryan Hayes in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Trevino in the 5th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Jose Trevino is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Ryne Nelson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Trevino today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Trevino in the 17th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Batting from the same side that Zack Littell throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 81.6-mph over the last two weeks.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 45.8% on the season to 26.7% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Zack Littell in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Zack Littell is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

The #2 stadium in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best venue in Major League Baseball for batting average.

Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Zack Littell in today’s matchup.

Zack Littell has gone to his slider 5.9% less often this season (34%) than he did last season (39.9%).

Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Miguel Andujar will have a tough matchup today.

Miguel Andujar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Miguel Andujar in today’s game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Miguel Andujar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.5% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 14th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Geraldo Perdomo’s launch angle of late (3.1° over the last week) is quite a bit lower than his 15.4° seasonal angle.

Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Geraldo Perdomo has experienced some positive variance given the .052 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 21st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 14th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

In today’s game, TJ Friedl is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.8% rate (96th percentile).

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for TJ Friedl in today’s matchup.

TJ Friedl’s BABIP skill is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

TJ Friedl’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 84.6-mph in the past 7 days.

Blaze Alexander is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

Zack Littell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Blaze Alexander today.

Blaze Alexander has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Blaze Alexander’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13% down to 0%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.209) provides evidence that Blaze Alexander has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .241 actual batting average.

Alek Thomas is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Alek Thomas’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (5.6° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit worse than his 9.1° seasonal mark.

Using Statcast data, Alek Thomas is in the 14th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .289.

Alek Thomas’s 4° launch angle (a reliable stat to study a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in Major League Baseball: 3rd percentile.

Noelvi Marte is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage over Noelvi Marte in today’s game.

In today’s matchup, Noelvi Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (76th percentile).

Noelvi Marte will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Corbin Carroll pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

In his previous start, Ryne Nelson struggled when it came to striking batters out and only managed to post 2 Ks.

Ryne Nelson has utilized his four-seamer 8.8% more often this season (64.8%) than he did last year (56%).

Ryne Nelson has put up a .244 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest mound aces in Major League Baseball on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

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