Reds @ Cardinals Matchup Details

Positives for the Cincinnati Reds Game Today

Dane Myers’s BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.

,Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,In the last 7 days, Dane Myers’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.9-mph over the course of the season to 97-mph in recent games.

,Checking in at the 75th percentile, Dane Myers has posted a .333 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Jordan Walker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

,Busch Stadium grades out as the #10 field in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Jordan Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Because of Dustin May’s large platoon split, Nathaniel Lowe will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

,The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

,Nathaniel Lowe has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 7% rate last season to 12% this season.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Spencer Steer ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Spencer Steer is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

,Spencer Steer has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 7.8% rate last season to 12.8% this year.

,Spencer Steer has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph EV.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Rhett Lowder in today’s game.

,Alec Burleson will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

,When it comes to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

,As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Dustin May) in this game.

,Elly De La Cruz’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.7-mph now compared to just 90.7-mph then.

,JJ Bleday is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,JJ Bleday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dustin May in today’s game… and even more favorably, May has a large platoon split.

,JJ Bleday will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.

,JJ Bleday’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 18.4% to 21.6%.

,Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Masyn Winn hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Masyn Winn has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 92-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jimmy Crooks in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Jimmy Crooks will have the handedness advantage over Rhett Lowder in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jimmy Crooks will hold that advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jimmy Crooks’s true offensive talent to be a .312, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .043 disparity between that figure and his actual .269 wOBA.

,It may be best to expect positive regression for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

,Dustin May conceded a monstrous 6 earned runs in his last game started.

,Cincinnati’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #8 overall.

,The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.1° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#2 overall).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 78th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Tyler Stephenson has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 11.3% seasonal rate to 42.9% over the last week.

,Tyler Stephenson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.

,Tyler Stephenson’s launch angle lately (34.5° over the last 7 days) is considerably higher than his 17.1° seasonal mark.

,Batting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, Nathan Church will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Nathan Church will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

,Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Rhett Lowder in today’s game.

,Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Sal Stewart ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Sal Stewart is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Sal Stewart has notched a .388 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 99th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Sal Stewart grades out in the 98th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .300.

,Edwin Arroyo’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 60.7% on the season to 71.4% over the last two weeks.

,Recording 93.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Rhett Lowder ranks in the 84th percentile.

,Nathaniel Lowe has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past week’s worth of games.

,Busch Stadium projects as the #10 stadium in MLB for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,With a 41.800 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Sal Stewart grades out in the 99th percentile for power.

,In terms of plate discipline, Dane Myers’s talent is quite impressive, sporting a 1.98 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 75th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Jordan in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Blaze Jordan hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Blaze Jordan will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Blaze Jordan has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 91.9-mph over the past 7 days.

,Since the start of last season, Jimmy Crooks’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to assess power) grades out in the 81st percentile at 94.3 mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,JJ Wetherholt is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, JJ Wetherholt will have an edge in today’s game.

,JJ Wetherholt hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Jose Fermin will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

,Jose Fermin has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 92.8-mph over the past week.

,Posting a .284 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jose Fermin has performed in the 92nd percentile.

,Nathan Church’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 42.6% on the season to 57.1% in the last week’s worth of games.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, JJ Bleday ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Dustin May has averaged 92.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 12.2°, Sal Stewart has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27.2° figure in the last week.

,Edwin Arroyo’s BABIP talent is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,Elly De La Cruz has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 9.6% rate last season to 15.1% this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 75th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals Game Today

Dane Myers is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

,Given Dustin May’s large platoon split, Dane Myers will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

,Dane Myers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,Dane Myers has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 7 days.

,Rhett Lowder will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Walker today.

,The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 4th-strongest among every team on the slate today.

,In the past 7 days, Jordan Walker’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 95.3 mph to 84.4 mph.

,Over the last 7 days, Jordan Walker’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13%.

,Jordan Walker has been lucky this year, notching a .370 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .345 — a .025 deviation.

,Nathaniel Lowe has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 23% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

,Busch Stadium profiles as the #29 stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,In today’s matchup, Nathaniel Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.8% rate (95th percentile).

,Nathaniel Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,Despite posting a .344 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nathaniel Lowe has had some very good luck given the .028 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.

,Given Dustin May’s large platoon split, Spencer Steer will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate today.

,Today, Spencer Steer is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (93rd percentile).

,Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Spencer Steer in today’s game.

,Using Statcast metrics, Spencer Steer is in the 23rd percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .298.

,In the majors, Busch Stadium’s right field dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.

,In the last week, Alec Burleson’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.4%.

,Dane Myers’s launch angle lately (-1° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit worse than his 16° seasonal angle.

,Elly De La Cruz has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Elly De La Cruz in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Elly De La Cruz’s true offensive skill to be a .344, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .022 deviation between that mark and his actual .366 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Bleday in the 10th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,JJ Bleday pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for JJ Bleday today.

,JJ Bleday has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 9.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 24th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

,Rhett Lowder will hold the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn today.

,Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.6-mph average last year has decreased to 87.1-mph.

,Masyn Winn’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 14.8% to 10.6%.

,Jimmy Crooks is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,This year, Jimmy Crooks has been pinch hit for in 29% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

,The #1 stadium in the majors for suppressing home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

,Dustin May will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats across the board.

,Dustin May has gone to his cut-fastball 13.2% more often this season (22.4%) than he did last season (9.2%).

,Dustin May has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 4.78 figure is considerably higher than his 3.35 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

,Tyler Stephenson is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Dustin May will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today’s matchup… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering May’s large platoon split.

,In today’s matchup, Tyler Stephenson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.7% rate (85th percentile).

,Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tyler Stephenson in today’s matchup.

,Nathan Church is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

,When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Nathan Church has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 15% of the time.

,Nathan Church has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 14 days.

,Lars Nootbaar’s launch angle this season (7.4°) is significantly lower than his 15.9° figure last year.

,Given Dustin May’s large platoon split, Sal Stewart will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s matchup.

,Sal Stewart has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Sal Stewart will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Sal Stewart has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 14.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 6.7% in the last 7 days.

,Sal Stewart’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 89.8-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 85.3-mph over the last 7 days.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Edwin Arroyo ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Edwin Arroyo is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Edwin Arroyo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Edwin Arroyo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.6% underlying K%.

,Projected catcher Tyler Stephenson profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Busch Stadium ranks as the #28 park in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Rhett Lowder in today’s matchup.

,Rhett Lowder’s 92-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 24th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

,Over the last week, Nathaniel Lowe’s 11.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.6%.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Jimmy Crooks grades out in the 4th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .194.

,Blaze Jordan is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Rhett Lowder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Blaze Jordan in today’s matchup.

,In the past 7 days, Blaze Jordan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.

,JJ Wetherholt’s launch angle lately (5.4° in the past 14 days) is quite a bit worse than his 13° seasonal angle.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 10th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Jose Fermin is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

,Rhett Lowder will have the handedness advantage against Jose Fermin today.

,Jose Fermin pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates JJ Bleday’s true offensive skill to be a .335, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .019 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .354 wOBA.

,Tyler Stephenson has notched a .230 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Jordan in the 22nd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Spencer Steer is in the 12th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .218.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 9.4°, Blaze Jordan has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7.3°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Edwin Arroyo’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 88.5-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 85.2-mph in the past 7 days.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Edwin Arroyo has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).

,When assessing his home run talent, Jose Fermin ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Over the last two weeks, Masyn Winn’s 31.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.1%.

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