Red Sox @ Padres Matchup Details

Positives for the Boston Red Sox Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best stadium in the majors for LHB home runs.

On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu’s launch angle this season (24°) is quite a bit better than his 19° mark last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 16.6% on the season to 27.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 7th-best stadium in the league for RHB home runs.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal average of 11.7°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.2° figure in the past week.

In terms of his home runs, Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky this year. His 20.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.3.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an edge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Jackson Merrill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Masataka Yoshida’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the league, Petco Park’s centerfield fences are the shallowest.

Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta in today’s game.

Batters such as Masataka Yoshida with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Masataka Yoshida has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last year’s 88-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Roman Anthony ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Roman Anthony will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today.

Extreme flyball batters like Roman Anthony are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Xander Bogaerts has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.9% seasonal rate to 14% in the last two weeks.

In notching a .276 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Xander Bogaerts finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 5th-best field in the league for strikeouts.

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

Considering the 1.24 discrepancy between Nick Pivetta’s 2.73 ERA and his 3.97 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and ought to see negative regression in the future.

Nick Pivetta has averaged 17.5 outs per start this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

When it comes to his home run skill, Trevor Story ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Trevor Story has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

In the last week, Trevor Story’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.5%.

Checking in at the 91st percentile, Trevor Story sports a .335 BABIP this year.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Alex Bregman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season’s 90.9-mph EV.

Alex Bregman has compiled a .391 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Ryan O’Hearn is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

Ryan O’Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Walker Buehler today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Ryan O’Hearn will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Walker Buehler’s overall pitching ability is in the 17th percentile out of all starters in the league currently.

The San Diego Padres have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future,Walker Buehler will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Ramon Laureano’s BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ramon Laureano is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ramon Laureano has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 92.5-mph in the last two weeks.

When estimating his home run skill, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Manny Machado will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Manny Machado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 96.7-mph in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today.

Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to plate discipline, Jake Cronenworth’s talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.68 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 82nd percentile.

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

Luis Arraez will have the handedness advantage over Walker Buehler today.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Freddy Fermin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Freddy Fermin will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Negatives with the San Diego Padres Game Today

Wilyer Abreu has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

This year, Wilyer Abreu has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Petco Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 6th-most favorable for pitching on the slate.

Today, Wilyer Abreu is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (82nd percentile).

The #8 stadium in the game for suppressing base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela today.

Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

The #8 ballpark in baseball for suppressing base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jackson Merrill’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 6.3%.

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

This year, Masataka Yoshida has been pinch hit for in 21% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Masataka Yoshida in today’s matchup.

There has been a significant decline in Masataka Yoshida’s launch angle from last season’s 10.5° to 3.4° this season.

Roman Anthony will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Roman Anthony has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph dropping to 87.9-mph over the past 7 days.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Roman Anthony’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (3.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 10.4°.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Walker Buehler will have the handedness advantage against Xander Bogaerts in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 85-mph over the last week.

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Nick Pivetta (39.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Boston’s projected batting order.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 5th-worst park in the game for BABIP.

Nick Pivetta will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats across the board.

Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Story in today’s matchup.

Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage over Alex Bregman in today’s game.

Typically, hitters like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In the past week, Alex Bregman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Ryan O’Hearn has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.

Ryan O’Hearn has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days.

Ryan O’Hearn has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 22.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 17.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Walker Buehler has gone to his secondary pitches 6.3% more often this season (61%) than he did last season (54.7%).

Walker Buehler has been unlucky this year, notching a 5.74 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.00 — a 0.74 deviation.

Walker Buehler has averaged 14.8 outs per start this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Walker Buehler in the 19th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.9% underlying K%.

Walker Buehler’s 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.6-mph fall off from last season’s 95.1-mph figure.

Checking in at the 9th percentile, Walker Buehler compiled a 7.7% Swinging Strike% this year.

Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Ramon Laureano in today’s matchup.

Ramon Laureano’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (15.2°) is considerably lower than his 19.9° angle last year.

Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, notching a .381 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .324 — a .057 discrepancy.

Ramon Laureano’s launch angle of late (10.3° in the past 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 13.9° seasonal angle.

Batting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Manny Machado will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .368 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Manny Machado has had positive variance on his side given the .018 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.

Manny Machado’s launch angle in recent games (2.8° in the last 7 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 14.5° seasonal angle.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

Jake Cronenworth has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the last 7 days.

In the last 14 days, Jake Cronenworth’s 6.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

This year, Jake Cronenworth’s flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 20th percentile at 90 mph.

When assessing his home run skill, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.9-mph average last year has dropped off to 85.5-mph.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 85.5-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 82-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

In the past week, Luis Arraez has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power).

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jarren Duran in today’s game.

Jarren Duran’s launch angle in recent games (2.8° over the past week) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.8° seasonal angle.

When it comes to his home run talent, Freddy Fermin ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Walker Buehler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Fermin today.

Latest San Diego Padres Matches

• Padres vs Giants match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Sunday, September 13th
• Padres vs Giants match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Saturday, September 12th
• Padres vs Giants match player stats | 2026 Friday, September 11th
• Nationals vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, September 9th
• Nationals vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Tuesday, September 8th
• Nationals vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Monday, September 7th
• Yankees vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Sunday, September 6th
• Yankees vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Saturday, September 5th
• Yankees vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Friday, September 4th
• Padres vs Reds match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, September 2nd

Latest Boston Red Sox Matches

• Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Sunday 13th 2026
• Royals vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Sunday, September 13th
• Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Saturday 12th 2026
• Royals vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Saturday, September 12th
• Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Friday 11th 2026
• Royals vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Friday, September 11th
• Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Wednesday 9th 2026
• Angels vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, September 9th
• Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Odds MLB – Tuesday 8th 2026
• Angels vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Series Game 2 Tuesday, September 8th

---