Rays @ Mariners Matchup Details

Positives for the Tampa Bay Rays Game Today

T-Mobile Park has the least fair ground in the majors,— generally good for home runs.

Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Dominic Canzone will have the upper hand today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage today.

Dominic Canzone has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season’s 89.9-mph average.

Dominic Canzone has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 94.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 77th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Junior Caminero has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last year’s 89.5-mph EV.

Over the past week, Junior Caminero’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.1-mph over the course of the season to 105.1-mph recently.

The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Considering Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Chandler Simpson will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s matchup.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Chandler Simpson grades out in the 99th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .306.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 14th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his batting average ability.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball bats like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Eugenio Suarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Luis Castillo in the 75th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Throwing 95.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Luis Castillo ranks in the 94th percentile.

The Tampa Bay Rays projected offense profiles as the 5th-worst on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst field in the game for batting average.

T-Mobile Park grades out as the #2 stadium in the league for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher metrics in all categories, and Luis Castillo will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, J.P. Crawford will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

J.P. Crawford has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 5.7% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past week’s worth of games.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.282) provides evidence that J.P. Crawford has experienced some negative variance this year with his .265 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

J.P. Crawford’s launch angle of late (21.8° over the past 7 days) is considerably better than his 11.7° seasonal figure.

When estimating his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 8th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (6.2°) is a significant increase over his 1.3° angle last year.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Given Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Brandon Lowe has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year’s 89.8-mph figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today.

Over the past week, Randy Arozarena’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.9% up to 21.4%.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage today.

Jorge Polanco has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season’s 88.3-mph EV.

Over the last 7 days, Jorge Polanco’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.7%.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The Seattle Mariners have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Garver).

Out of all starters, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph ranks in the 79th percentile this year.

The Seattle Mariners projected lineup projects as the 5th-best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

Josh Lowe is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Considering Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Josh Lowe will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Josh Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Josh Lowe’s BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Taylor Walls has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Taylor Walls’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 15.8% to 19.9%.

Taylor Walls’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 19.9% on the season to 28.6% in the past week’s worth of games.

As it relates to his batting average, Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side this year. His .222 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .238.

Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Hunter Feduccia will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball batters like Cal Raleigh tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Cal Raleigh will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Cal Raleigh ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 5th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.

Julio Rodriguez has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 8.9% seasonal rate to 17% in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Julio Rodriguez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jake Mangum has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

By putting up a .277 batting average this year, Jake Mangum has performed in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Negatives with the Seattle Mariners Game Today

Dominic Canzone is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

20% of the time that Dominic Canzone has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

T-Mobile Park grades out as the #30 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense.

This contest is projected to have the 3rd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst park in the game for run-scoring.

Dominic Canzone has been lucky this year, notching a .362 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .048 discrepancy.

Given Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Junior Caminero will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today.

Junior Caminero will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Over the past 7 days, Junior Caminero’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.1%.

T-Mobile Park ranks as the #30 park in the majors for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Chandler Simpson today.

Chandler Simpson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84-mph dropping to 79.7-mph over the last 7 days.

Hitting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.0) suggests that Eugenio Suarez has been very fortunate this year with his 48.1 actual HR/600.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Eugenio Suarez has had some very good luck this year. His .366 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .318.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Mitch Garver (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

T-Mobile Park has the 4th-shallowest RF dimensions in the league.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Luis Castillo in this game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (94.5 mph) below where it was last year (95.5 mph).

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 20.6% underlying K%.

Luis Castillo’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (68.8 compared to 63.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

When it comes to his home run talent, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

J.P. Crawford’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 91.9-mph EV last year has fallen off to 89.9-mph.

Luis Castillo will hold the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Yandy Diaz has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.

Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Brandon Lowe has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 13.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 5.9% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.323) may lead us to conclude that Brandon Lowe has experienced some positive variance this year with his .345 actual wOBA.

Batting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Randy Arozarena has a tough challenge in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Randy Arozarena’s 27.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.9%.

Randy Arozarena has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 26.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 23.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 19th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Jorge Polanco has been pinch hit for 16% of the time.

Jorge Polanco’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 92.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 88-mph in the last 14 days.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Drew Rasmussen is projected to throw 80 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate.

Given that groundball batters hold a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Drew Rasmussen and his 48.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this outing matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.

Drew Rasmussen will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 57.7% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Drew Rasmussen as the 18th-best starter in the majors currently.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Seattle Mariners offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Josh Lowe today.

In the past 7 days, Josh Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

Josh Lowe’s launch angle this year (7.5°) is quite a bit worse than his 16.8° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 14th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Taylor Walls is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When assessing his home run talent, Taylor Walls ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Luis Castillo… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 22nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Hunter Feduccia is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Feduccia in the 24th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Hunter Feduccia will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side (0) today against Drew Rasmussen,Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (36.7) provides evidence that Cal Raleigh has had positive variance on his side this year with his 50.8 actual HR/600.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.344) may lead us to conclude that Cal Raleigh has had some very good luck this year with his .391 actual wOBA.

Drew Rasmussen will have the handedness advantage over Julio Rodriguez in today’s game.

In terms of plate discipline, Julio Rodriguez’s skill is quite weak, putting up a 3.61 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 23rd percentile.

When estimating his home run skill, Jake Mangum ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Mangum is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jake Mangum will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

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