Blue Jays @ Dodgers Matchup Details

Positives for the Toronto Blue Jays Game Today

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

The #6 field in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.

Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks.

Batting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Davis Schneider will have an advantage today.

Out of every team today, the 6th-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

As it relates to his home run talent, Davis Schneider ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the best stadium in the game for RHB home runs.

Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league parks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 6th-best venue in the majors for left-handed batting average.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Alexander Freeland will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Max Scherzer in today’s game.

Alexander Freeland will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Alexander Freeland has been hot recently, posting a 92.2-mph average exit velocity over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the best venue in baseball for left-handed home runs.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Shohei Ohtani is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Shohei Ohtani will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today.

Myles Straw will hold the platoon advantage over Clayton Kershaw in today’s game.

Myles Straw’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 19.6% on the season to 37.5% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Myles Straw has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .286 figure is a fair amount lower than his .314 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Clayton Kershaw in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent.

The underlying talent of the Toronto Blue Jays projected batting order today (.323 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .334 wOBA this year.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future,Clayton Kershaw will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats in all categories.

Clayton Kershaw’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (63.9% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

With 8 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Clayton Kershaw will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.

Considering the 1.37 difference between Clayton Kershaw’s 5.76 K/9 and his 7.13 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and should see better results going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Max Muncy is penciled in 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Max Muncy will have the upper hand in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Max Muncy ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Max Muncy will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Mookie Betts is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Mookie Betts will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Will Smith will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Compared to last year, Will Smith has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 36.4% to 49.8% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Max Scherzer in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Alejandro Kirk (the Blue Jays’s expected catcher today) grades out as a good pitch framer.

Given that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Max Scherzer (43.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.

In his last game started, Max Scherzer performed well and gave up 2 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Max Scherzer in the 92nd percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

Checking in at the 83rd percentile, Max Scherzer has compiled a 25.5% strikeout rate this year.

Batting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Michael Conforto will have the upper hand today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Michael Conforto will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Michael Conforto has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .191 figure is a fair amount lower than his .231 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his home run ability, Michael Conforto ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Ty France is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Ty France will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw today.

Ty France has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 8.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 17.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Over the last week, Teoscar Hernandez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.3% up to 27.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best batter in baseball as it relates to his batting average skill.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have an edge today.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When estimating his batting average ability, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Bo Bichette is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Bo Bichette will have the upper hand in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Bo Bichette ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alejandro Kirk ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alejandro Kirk will hold the platoon advantage over Clayton Kershaw in today’s game.

Alejandro Kirk has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year’s 89.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 18th-best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average skill.

Freddie Freeman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Freddie Freeman will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Ernie Clement is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Ernie Clement will have the handedness advantage over Clayton Kershaw in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Andy Pages will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Andy Pages has compiled a .282 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nathan Lukes’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nathan Lukes has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 5.7% seasonal rate to 11.4% in the last two weeks.

Buddy Kennedy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today’s game.

By putting up a .364 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Buddy Kennedy is ranked in the 97th percentile for hitting ability.

Negatives with the Los Angeles Dodgers Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 19th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

67% of the time that Davis Schneider has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Davis Schneider today.

Davis Schneider has been lucky this year, posting a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .045 disparity.

With a .200 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Davis Schneider finds himself in the 4th percentile.

Grading out in the 8th percentile, Davis Schneider sits with a .203 batting average since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Freeland in the 18th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Alexander Freeland is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Alexander Freeland pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.

Alexander Freeland has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the last week.

In the last 7 days, Alexander Freeland’s swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 0% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Shohei Ohtani has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 22.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Over the past week, Shohei Ohtani’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.3%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.371) suggests that Shohei Ohtani has had some very good luck this year with his .409 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his home runs, Shohei Ohtani has been lucky this year. His 44.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.4.

Myles Straw is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a left-handed starter this year, Myles Straw has been pinch hit for 34% of the time.

Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Myles Straw today.

Myles Straw’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 88.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 83.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

When estimating his home run ability, Myles Straw ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clayton Kershaw is projected to throw 82 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Will Smith (the Dodgers’s expected catcher in today’s game) projects as a weak pitch framer.

The #1 venue in baseball for boosting home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.6% underlying K%.

Dodger Stadium grades out as the #23 venue in the league for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In today’s matchup, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.7% rate (98th percentile).

Typically, bats like Max Muncy who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.

Max Muncy’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (22.9°) is significantly lower than his 26.4° figure last year.

Despite posting a .372 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Max Muncy has been lucky given the .024 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.

Max Scherzer will hold the platoon advantage over Mookie Betts today.

Extreme flyball hitters like Mookie Betts tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.

Over the past 14 days, Mookie Betts’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 90.3 mph to 86.6 mph.

Posting a .242 BABIP this year, Mookie Betts has performed in the 3rd percentile.

Mookie Betts has notched a .286 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 17th percentile.

Will Smith is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Hitting from the same side that Max Scherzer throws from, Will Smith will not have the upper hand today.

Typically, bats like Will Smith who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Scherzer.

In the last week, Will Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.7% down to 0%.

Will Smith’s launch angle of late (-7.5° in the past week’s worth of games) is considerably lower than his 18.9° seasonal figure.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the best on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games,Max Scherzer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Max Scherzer wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and put up 1 Ks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 17th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Michael Conforto is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Michael Conforto has been pulled from the game early 18% of the time.

Over the past week, Michael Conforto’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.

Michael Conforto has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph dropping to 86.1-mph in the past week.

By putting up a .283 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Michael Conforto finds himself in the 14th percentile.

Ty France has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ty France in today’s game.

Ty France has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past two weeks.

Over the last week, Ty France’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.6%.

In terms of power, Ty France is positioned in the 15th percentile, having averaged 9 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Ty France’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.3-mph EV last year has dropped to 90.5-mph.

Posting a 3.43 K/BB rate this year, Ty France has shown weak plate discipline, placing in the 25th percentile.

Max Scherzer will have the handedness advantage against Teoscar Hernandez today.

Today, Teoscar Hernandez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (80th percentile).

From last season to this one, Teoscar Hernandez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 96.3 mph to 93.2 mph.

Teoscar Hernandez’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, going from 41.4% on the season to 30.8% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Teoscar Hernandez’s launch angle recently (6.3° over the last two weeks) is considerably worse than his 9.4° seasonal angle.

Teoscar Hernandez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 28.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 24.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today.

Bo Bichette has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.

Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Bo Bichette’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (4.4° in the last 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 9.3° seasonal angle.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

Alejandro Kirk has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alejandro Kirk in today’s matchup.

Alejandro Kirk has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Alejandro Kirk’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 91.9-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 83.1-mph over the past week.

In terms of his batting average, Freddie Freeman has had some very good luck this year. His .307 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .269.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Freddie Freeman has had some very good luck this year. His .369 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

Ernie Clement will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ernie Clement’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (7.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.4°.

From last year to this one, Ernie Clement’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 18.8% to 13.9%.

In terms of his batting average, Ernie Clement has experienced some positive variance this year. His .290 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .270.

Using Statcast data, Ernie Clement grades out in the 9th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 6.900.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 11th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.297) may lead us to conclude that Ernie Clement has been lucky this year with his .315 actual wOBA.

Andy Pages is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

Max Scherzer will have the handedness advantage over Andy Pages today.

Typically, batters like Andy Pages who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.

Over the last 7 days, Andy Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 91.7 mph to 89.5 mph.

There has been a significant decline in Andy Pages’s launch angle from last year’s 20.6° to 16.8° this season.

Nathan Lukes is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Nathan Lukes will have a tough matchup today.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nathan Lukes today.

Nathan Lukes has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 85.3-mph over the past 14 days.

Nathan Lukes’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 41.7% on the season to 22.7% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Buddy Kennedy in the 18th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Buddy Kennedy is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Buddy Kennedy today.

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