Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Pirates vs Padres Matchup Today

Spencer Horwitz’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Petco Park.

On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.

Spencer Horwitz will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Pivetta today.

Using Statcast metrics, Spencer Horwitz grades out in the 77th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .333.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Spencer Horwitz ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Petco Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his batting average skill, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 42% to 50.8%.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Xander Bogaerts has suffered from bad luck this year. His .299 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Petco Park projects as the #9 ballpark in the majors for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall pitching skills.

The #6 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Nick Pivetta will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In his last game started, Nick Pivetta was on point and allowed 0 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 92nd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.5% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-most strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

The #3 park in MLB for boosting strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

Elias Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Elias Diaz has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 4.3% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks.

Elias Diaz’s launch angle this year (16.4°) is a considerable increase over his 7.3° figure last season.

Elias Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 15.5% on the season to 33.3% in the past two weeks.

Mitch Keller has averaged 94.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

In his previous start, Mitch Keller performed well and gave up 1 ER.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 2.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 11.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Despite posting a .258 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ke’Bryan Hayes has suffered from bad luck given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

Bryan Reynolds’s BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Nick Pivetta.

Over the last 14 days, Bryan Reynolds has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.1% to 33.3%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 46.8% to 52.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Jake Cronenworth has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .243 figure is a good deal lower than his .277 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the league.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

With a .359 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Fernando Tatis Jr. is positioned in the 90th percentile for offensive skills.

Extreme flyball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has posted a .293 batting average this year, grading out in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded a .280 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Luis Arraez will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 2nd-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.3) implies that Andrew McCutchen has been unlucky this year with his 9.4 actual HR/600.

Andrew McCutchen has shown good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 89th percentile with a 1.37 K/BB rate.

Tyler Wade will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

Tyler Wade will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball’s 7th-best home run hitter.

Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Oneil Cruz has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 15.7% rate last season to 22.1% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Alexander Canario is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Over the past 14 days, Alexander Canario has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 27° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.4°.

Alexander Canario has been hot lately, posting a a 25% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) in the last two weeks.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Alexander Canario has been unlucky this year. His .295 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Gavin Sheets has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 108.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 95-mph.

By putting up a .361 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Gavin Sheets is ranked in the 85th percentile.

Henry Davis’s speed has increased this season. His 27.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.18 ft/sec now.

Negative Match Player Stats with Pirates vs Padres

12% of the time that Spencer Horwitz has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The #6 venue in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the 2nd-best pitching conditions on the slate today.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Spencer Horwitz in today’s game.

Spencer Horwitz has been cold lately, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) over the past 14 days.

Petco Park ranks as the #23 park in baseball for left-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Petco Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

Spencer Horwitz has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, lifting balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Jackson Merrill has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 19.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 14 days.

Jackson Merrill’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, falling from 21.3% on the season to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Jackson Merrill has been lucky this year, compiling a .386 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .345 — a .041 difference.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Mitch Keller will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Xander Bogaerts in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 8th-worst venue in MLB for righty base hits.

In the past two weeks, Xander Bogaerts’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.5%.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

Because of his reverse platoon split, Nick Pivetta will have a disadvantage squaring off against 6 bats in the projected batting order of the same handedness in this matchup.

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all parks today.

Nick Pivetta has gone to his slider 9% less often this season (20.2%) than he did last year (29.2%).

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Mitch Keller will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Elias Diaz today.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Elias Diaz has had some very good luck this year. His .274 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .255.

Elias Diaz has paced 12.7 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 25th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 12th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Henry Davis, the Pirates’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue among all parks in this game.

Mitch Keller will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Mitch Keller has relied on his slider 8.8% more often this season (33.9%) than he did last season (25.1%).

The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

Mitch Keller’s 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.3-mph decline from last season’s 94.5-mph figure.

Mitch Keller has recorded an 8.2% Swinging Strike rate this year, checking in at the 16th percentile.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Ke’Bryan Hayes will not have the upper hand today.

In today’s matchup, Ke’Bryan Hayes is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.6% rate (99th percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bryan Reynolds in today’s game.

There has been a significant decline in Bryan Reynolds’s launch angle from last season’s 9.1° to 4.4° this year.

Placing in the 22nd percentile, Bryan Reynolds has posted a .220 batting average this year.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Manny Machado has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks.

Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 93.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 86-mph in the last two weeks.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.9-mph EV last season has dropped to 89.5-mph.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Jake Cronenworth’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (6.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.3°.

From last year to this one, Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.5% to 11.3%.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 15.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

There has been a significant decline in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle from last year’s 9.7° to 6.4° this year.

When estimating his home run ability, Isiah Kiner-Falefa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 0th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.9-mph average last year has lowered to 84.6-mph.

Over the last 14 days, Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 84.6 mph to 60.4 mph.

Over the past two weeks, Luis Arraez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.9%.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Andrew McCutchen today.

Andrew McCutchen will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Andrew McCutchen has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

As it relates to his home run talent, Tyler Wade ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler Wade is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler Wade ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tyler Wade’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 83.7-mph mark last year has decreased to 80.4-mph.

Tyler Wade’s launch angle this season (8.7°) is a significant dropoff from his 14.5° figure last season.

Oneil Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Over the past 14 days, Oneil Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 22.1% down to 0%.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.1°, Oneil Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-23°) in the past 14 days.

When it comes to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has experienced some positive variance this year. His 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.7.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Alexander Canario meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Alexander Canario will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Alexander Canario’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 91.1-mph seasonal average has fallen to 81.4-mph over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 16.8°, Gavin Sheets has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2°) in the past 14 days.

Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 17.5% to 11.1%.

Henry Davis is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Henry Davis has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Henry Davis in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Henry Davis today.

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