Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Nationals vs D-Backs Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

James Wood will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today’s matchup.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so James Wood stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best batter in the league when estimating his BABIP skill.

The #2 park in the majors for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.

Daylen Lile will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daylen Lile has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Chase Field grades out as the #3 venue in the game for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

With 9 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Merrill Kelly meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

Merrill Kelly’s 91-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph decrease from last year’s 92-mph mark.

Merrill Kelly has utilized his cut-fastball 7.5% less often this year (17.7%) than he did last year (25.2%).

Merrill Kelly has averaged 94.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Considering that groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Merrill Kelly (42.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 6 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats across the board, and Merrill Kelly will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ketel Marte projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Sporting a .396 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Ketel Marte has performed in the 99th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Pavin Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin in today’s matchup.

Pavin Smith will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Pavin Smith has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 93.3-mph in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

The #2 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Eugenio Suarez has strong power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin is a pitch-to-contact type (21st percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Eugenio Suarez will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Josh Naylor ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Josh Naylor will have the handedness advantage over Jake Irvin in today’s matchup.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Merrill Kelly.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Luis Garcia Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Merrill Kelly today.

Josh Bell has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year’s 92.8-mph EV.

Josh Bell has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .166 figure is a good deal lower than his .217 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Despite posting a .262 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Josh Bell has suffered from bad luck given the .052 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an advantage in today’s game.

Nathaniel Lowe will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

Nathaniel Lowe has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.328) provides evidence that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has suffered from bad luck this year with his .305 actual wOBA.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Geraldo Perdomo will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.8-mph average to last season’s 88.1-mph average.

In the past two weeks, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.9-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Gabriel Moreno will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Gabriel Moreno has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season’s 90-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage in today’s game.

Robert Hassell III will have the handedness advantage over Merrill Kelly today.

Robert Hassell III will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jose Tena will have the upper hand today.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jose Tena stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Jose Tena has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 6.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 13.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alek Thomas will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today.

Alek Thomas will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Alek Thomas has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph average.

When it comes to his home runs, Alek Thomas has suffered from bad luck this year. His 4.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.1.

Projected catcher Keibert Ruiz profiles as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jake Irvin will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

Recording 18.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Jake Irvin places him the 95th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage over Jake Irvin today.

Corbin Carroll will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Negative Match Player Stats with Nationals vs D-Backs

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 6th-worst ballpark in the game for left-handed home runs.

The 3rd-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Chase Field.

In Major League Baseball, the 10th-tallest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.

Extreme groundball hitters like James Wood usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for James Wood in today’s game.

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 5th-best out of all the teams in action today.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, James Wood has been very fortunate this year. His .403 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .354.

When it comes to his home run talent, Daylen Lile ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Daylen Lile is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Daylen Lile in today’s matchup.

Daylen Lile has been cold in recent games, limping his way to a .247 wOBA over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent level.

The Washington Nationals projected batting order ranks as the 5th-worst on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Chase Field grades out as the #26 field in the league for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Merrill Kelly struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last GS and put up 1 Ks.

Ketel Marte is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Jake Irvin in this game.

Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Ketel Marte has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Over the last 14 days, Ketel Marte’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.9%.

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

33% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Pavin Smith’s launch angle this season (8.8°) is considerably lower than his 12.7° figure last season.

In the past two weeks, Pavin Smith’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.1%.

Batting from the same side that Jake Irvin throws from, Eugenio Suarez will be at a disadvantage today.

Eugenio Suarez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 39.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 33.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranking in the 3rd percentile, Eugenio Suarez has posted a .218 BABIP this year.

The #6 field in the league for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Josh Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Over the last two weeks, Josh Naylor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.

Josh Naylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.7-mph figure last year has fallen to 88.9-mph.

Josh Naylor’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, falling from 14.9% on the season to 0% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 1st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Keibert Ruiz in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 85.7 mph to 82.5 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 18th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Luis Garcia Jr. are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Garcia Jr. in today’s game.

Luis Garcia Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 18th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Josh Bell is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

Extreme flyball batters like Nathaniel Lowe tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nathaniel Lowe in today’s matchup.

Posting a .214 batting average this year, Nathaniel Lowe has performed in the 19th percentile.

Jake Irvin will hold the platoon advantage against Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 14 days.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 91.9 mph to 83.1 mph.

Over the past two weeks, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 16th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Geraldo Perdomo has experienced some positive variance given the .062 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

When assessing his home run ability, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Jake Irvin throws from, Gabriel Moreno meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Gabriel Moreno hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Gabriel Moreno’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, falling from 13.8% on the season to 0% over the past 14 days.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Gabriel Moreno has had positive variance on his side this year. His .331 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .289.

CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for CJ Abrams in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, CJ Abrams’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.4% down to 0%.

CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, compiling a .363 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .040 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Robert Hassell III in the 15th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Robert Hassell III is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Extreme flyball bats like Robert Hassell III usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Robert Hassell III in the 16th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Jose Tena is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Typically, bats like Jose Tena who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Merrill Kelly.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Tena today.

When estimating his home run skill, Jose Tena ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alek Thomas in the 25th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Alek Thomas is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

16% of the time that Alek Thomas has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Alek Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.

Alek Thomas’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 38.7% on the season to 0% in the past 14 days.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future,Jake Irvin was rolling in his last GS and allowed 2 ER.

Jake Irvin’s curveball rate has increased by 6.3% from last year to this one (31.3% to 37.6%) .

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jake Irvin in the 14th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.2% underlying K%.

In the last 14 days, Corbin Carroll’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15%.

In terms of his home runs, Corbin Carroll has experienced some positive variance this year. His 37.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.7.

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