Pirates vs D-Backs match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Thursday, May 7th

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PIT @ ARI

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Pirates @ D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Teams : Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Series Game 3
Date : Todays Game is on Thursday, May 7th
Time : 07/05/26 15:40:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Pittsburgh Pirates Series Game 3 Game Today

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for left-handed batting average.

,The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up 16° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

,Geraldo Perdomo will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

,Ketel Marte projects as the 19th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

,Mitch Keller has recorded 17.6 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.

,It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Brennan Miller) calling pitches today.

,Mitch Keller has put up a 2.96 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.

,Spencer Horwitz will have the handedness advantage over Zac Gallen in today’s matchup.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Spencer Horwitz has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

,Spencer Horwitz has compiled a .341 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile.

,Ildemaro Vargas is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

,Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Ildemaro Vargas will hold that advantage today.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s launch angle this year (8°) is considerably better than his 3.2° angle last year.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Corbin Carroll is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Konnor Griffin as the 2nd-best hitter in the game when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best park in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average.

,Konnor Griffin has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph to 93.1-mph in the past week.

,Ranking in the 99th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.73 ft/sec this year, Konnor Griffin is very fast.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

,Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Alek Thomas will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Alek Thomas will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

,The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Zac Gallen.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Over the past 7 days, Bryan Reynolds’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.6% up to 18.2%.

,Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s matchup.

,The 5th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

,The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Pittsburgh Pirates has been 119 mph this year, putting them as the #1 club in the game by this standard.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Gabriel Moreno will hold that advantage today.

,Gabriel Moreno has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.2% seasonal rate to 40% in the last week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage today.

,Oneil Cruz projects as the 12th-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Henry Davis has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.6% seasonal rate to 30% over the past 7 days.

,Henry Davis has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 95.6-mph.

,When it comes to his batting average, Henry Davis has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .166 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Gonzales in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Hitting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.1-mph over the course of the season to 90.7-mph in recent games.

,Over the past 7 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s 12.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 9.3%.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Marcell Ozuna’s launch angle this year (22.9°) is a significant increase over his 14.6° figure last year.

,Alek Thomas’s launch angle of late (35° in the past 7 days) is considerably higher than his 11.8° seasonal figure.

,When estimating his home run skill, Henry Davis ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Henry Davis has been unlucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 14.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 24.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an edge in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Ryan O’Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

,Batting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Ryan O’Hearn will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s 18.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

,Ketel Marte will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today.

,Nolan Arenado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal EV of 86.4-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna’s true offensive ability to be a .334, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .088 gap between that mark and his actual .246 wOBA.

,Using Statcast metrics, Marcell Ozuna is in the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .340.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Konnor Griffin in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,In the past week, Marcell Ozuna’s 61.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.8%.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 15.6°, Spencer Horwitz has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.3° mark in the past week’s worth of games.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Adrian Del Castillo will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Adrian Del Castillo has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past 7 days.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.1% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-most strikeout-prone batting order on the slate.

,Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zac Gallen today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

,Ryan O’Hearn may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

,Nolan Arenado has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 8.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 3 Game Today

When it comes to his home run skill, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all stadiums.

,Among all major league parks, the 10th-highest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.

,Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 20.2% to 9.3%.

,As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Mitch Keller in today’s matchup.

,In today’s game, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.8% rate (95th percentile).

,Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 10.3% on the season to 0% over the past week.

,The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Mitch Keller will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.

,Mitch Keller will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

,Spencer Horwitz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,This season, Spencer Horwitz’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 8.4% last year to just 1.2% this year.

,When it comes to his home run talent, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 5th-worst venue in baseball for lefty home runs.

,As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ildemaro Vargas will bat from his bad side against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

,Ildemaro Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Oneil Cruz in today’s game.

,Oneil Cruz’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 95.9-mph seasonal average has lowered to 93.9-mph over the past 7 days.

,In the last week, Oneil Cruz’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.8%.

,Based on Statcast metrics, Oneil Cruz grades out in the 18th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .224.

,Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 84th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Corbin Carroll’s launch angle this year (8°) is significantly lower than his 16.8° angle last year.

,Over the last two weeks, Corbin Carroll’s 24% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 37.3%.

,Konnor Griffin is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Zac Gallen will have the handedness advantage against Konnor Griffin in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Konnor Griffin in today’s matchup.

,Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Brandon Lowe has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 34.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 29.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.1% underlying K%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 4th-worst stadium in the game for strikeouts.

,Alek Thomas is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.

,Alek Thomas has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 7 days.

,Alek Thomas has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 83.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Alek Thomas’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 38.5% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,Bryan Reynolds has been lucky this year, compiling a .360 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .029 disparity.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 17th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,18% of the time that Adrian Del Castillo has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Adrian Del Castillo’s 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 35.7%.

,When it comes to his batting average, Adrian Del Castillo has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .235 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .201.

,Zac Gallen will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats across the board.

,Zac Gallen has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .333 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

,Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 5th-worst ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs.

,Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage over Gabriel Moreno today.

,Gabriel Moreno has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Arizona Diamondbacks bats collectively rank 29th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 90.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

,Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 46.4% to 37.1%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Henry Davis in the 8th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,Henry Davis is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

,This year, Henry Davis has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Hitting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Nick Gonzales has a tough challenge in today’s game.

,In today’s matchup, Nick Gonzales is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.6% rate (79th percentile).

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Gonzales in today’s game.

,Nick Gonzales’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81.6-mph over the last 7 days.

,From last season to this one, Nick Gonzales’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 92.2 mph to 86 mph.

,Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,Batting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Marcell Ozuna will be at a disadvantage today.

,Marcell Ozuna will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Marcell Ozuna has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 85.9-mph over the past week.

,Tallying 13.9 outs per start this year on average, Zac Gallen falls in the 15th percentile.

,Zac Gallen has compiled a 7.5% Swinging Strike rate this year, grading out in the 10th percentile.

,Ildemaro Vargas has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 8°, Corbin Carroll has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.4°) over the past two weeks.

,Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has exhibited some bad exit velocity benchmarks of late, averaging just 87.3-mph on his flyballs in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Ryan O’Hearn will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Ryan O’Hearn has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 7 days.

,Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.4°, Ryan O’Hearn has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.6°) over the last 14 days.

,When assessing his home run ability, Nick Gonzales ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 11th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 90.3-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 83.3-mph over the past 7 days.

,Ketel Marte’s launch angle this year (7.4°) is a significant dropoff from his 15.3° angle last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Nolan Arenado is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Nolan Arenado will have a disadvantage today.

,Geraldo Perdomo’s BABIP skill is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Lowe’s true offensive skill to be a .334, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .042 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.

,Batting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Henry Davis will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

,There has been a decrease in Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity this season, from 86.8 mph last year to 83.5 mph now,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.259) may lead us to conclude that Adrian Del Castillo has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .290 actual wOBA.

,In the last 7 days, Konnor Griffin’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.9%.

,Spencer Horwitz’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.3-mph EV last year has dropped off to 85.3-mph.

,Ryan O’Hearn has been lucky this year, posting a .367 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .033 deviation.

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