PHI @ SD
Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, July 11th
11/07/25 21:40:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Phillies vs Padres Matchup Today
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.
Petco Park grades out as the #5 stadium in MLB for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.
Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Jackson Merrill will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
In the past week, Jackson Merrill has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, putting up a 26.6° angle.
Ryan Bergert will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his metrics in all categories.
Among all starters, Ryan Bergert’s fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm grades out in the 79th percentile this year.
Jose Iglesias’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Jose Iglesias will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Despite posting a .249 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Iglesias has experienced some negative variance given the .032 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 5th-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.
Xander Bogaerts’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.
Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as MLB’s 3rd-best home run hitter.
Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Batting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Kyle Schwarber will not have the upper hand in today’s game.
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Kyle Schwarber’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (17.3°) is a significant increase over his 13.6° figure last season.
Kyle Schwarber’s 18.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 96th percentile this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.
The shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Nick Castellanos’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (17°) is a significant increase over his 13.9° figure last year.
Based on Statcast data, Nick Castellanos ranks in the 77th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .339.
As it relates to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 12th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Trea Turner is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.
Trea Turner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.
Trea Turner’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 15.9% to 18.9%.
Trea Turner’s quickness has improved this season. His 29.56 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 30.15 ft/sec now.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.
Manny Machado will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today’s matchup.
Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today.
Jake Cronenworth’s footspeed has increased this season. His 27.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.29 ft/sec now.
Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.
Omar Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Max Kepler in today’s game.
Max Kepler has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.2% rate last year to 12.6% this season.
Max Kepler has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season’s 88.8-mph EV.
Compared to last season, Max Kepler has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.8% to 17.9% this season.
Max Kepler has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .302 figure is a good deal lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
When estimating his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Luis Arraez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Bryce Harper projects as the 15th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.
Hitting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Bryce Harper will have a tough matchup today.
Bryce Harper’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 13.3% to 19.8%.
J.T. Realmuto’s BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 9.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 14.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Sporting a .332 BABIP this year, J.T. Realmuto finds himself in the 84th percentile.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky this year, putting up a .302 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .026 gap.
Ranger Suarez projects as the 19th-best SP in the majors right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Recording 93.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Ranger Suarez falls in the 86th percentile.
Petco Park grades out as the #26 field in the league for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Ranger Suarez is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.
Ranger Suarez has posted a 24.3% Strikeout% this year, placing in the 75th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.
Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.
This season, Alec Bohm has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.4 mph compared to last year’s 90.3 mph mark.
Alec Bohm’s footspeed has improved this year. His 26.25 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.7 ft/sec now.
Utilizing Statcast metrics, Alec Bohm ranks in the 91st percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .284.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Omar Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Marsh in today’s game.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Brandon Marsh ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
This year, Brandon Marsh has an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, which is among the best in baseball at the 78th percentile.
Brandon Marsh has recorded a .343 BABIP this year, placing in the 88th percentile.
Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last year’s 87.8-mph EV.
Based on Statcast metrics, Gavin Sheets ranks in the 78th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .340.
Hitting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Bryson Stott will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Bryson Stott’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 16.2% to 20.2%.
Bryson Stott’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Bryson Stott has had some very poor luck this year. His .291 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .310.
Negative Match Player Stats with Phillies vs Padres
Jackson Merrill is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.
This matchup is projected to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Ranger Suarez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Merrill today.
Ranking in the 25th percentile for power, Jackson Merrill has averaged 11.5 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.
The #4 field in the majors for suppressing batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Bergert to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
Ryan Bergert struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous start and notched 2 Ks.
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryan Bergert has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54.4% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Jose Iglesias is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
Petco Park projects as the #23 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
In today’s game, Jose Iglesias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.6% rate (83rd percentile).
As it relates to his home run ability, Jose Iglesias ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Xander Bogaerts’s 5.2% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) grades out in the 23rd percentile this year.
Xander Bogaerts has performed at a clip of 10.8 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 19th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Power-wise, Xander Bogaerts finds himself in the 14th percentile, having hit 7.5 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.
Xander Bogaerts grades out in the 11th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (11.8% rate this year).
Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Schwarber in today’s game.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.3) suggests that Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year with his 42.2 actual HR/600.
Batting from the opposite that Omar Cruz throws from, Nick Castellanos will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
Nick Castellanos will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Nick Castellanos has shown weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 21st percentile with a 3.98 K/BB rate.
Batting from the opposite that Omar Cruz throws from, Trea Turner will have an advantage today.
Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trea Turner in today’s matchup.
Trea Turner has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly recently, notching a 4.6° angle on such balls over the past week.
Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.
Ranger Suarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today’s game.
This year, Jake Cronenworth’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to study power) grades out in the 20th percentile at 90.1 mph.
From last year to this one, Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 47.2% to 38.3%.
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 48.8% to 38.8%.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly recently, putting up a 5.8° angle on such balls in the last 7 days.
In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks in just the 14th percentile with a 8.1° launch angle, which is among the most groundball-inducing angles in baseball.
Max Kepler is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
Max Kepler pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Max Kepler in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.
As it relates to his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Ranger Suarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Arraez in today’s matchup.
Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.9-mph mark last season has lowered to 85.6-mph.
When it comes to his home runs, Luis Arraez has been very fortunate this year. His 8.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.2.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryce Harper in today’s game.
Bryce Harper has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly recently, notching a -10.3° angle on such balls in the past 7 days.
J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.
J.T. Realmuto will hold the platoon advantage against Omar Cruz today.
J.T. Realmuto has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.
It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
Ranger Suarez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.
Ranger Suarez has utilized his four-seamer 6% less often this year (13.5%) than he did last year (19.5%).
The San Diego Padres (18.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams today.
Ranger Suarez’s 89.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph decrease from last year’s 90.8-mph mark.
Out of all SPs, Ranger Suarez’s fastball spin rate of 1932 rpm grades out in the 4th percentile this year.
With a 0.08 discrepancy between Ranger Suarez’s 8.53 K/9 and his 8.45 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see negative regression going forward.
Alec Bohm will hold the platoon advantage over Omar Cruz in today’s game.
Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alec Bohm in today’s matchup.
Brandon Marsh is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game.
Brandon Marsh will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.
Brandon Marsh’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (11.3°) is considerably lower than his 15.8° mark last year.
Brandon Marsh has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly in recent games, posting a -3° angle on such balls over the last week.
Batting from the same side that Ranger Suarez throws from, Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.
Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 17.5% to 13.1%.
Bryson Stott is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bryson Stott in today’s game.
In the past week’s worth of games, Bryson Stott has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a 4.5° angle.
Using Statcast metrics, Bryson Stott is in the 21st percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 11.600.
Bryson Stott’s speed has declined this year. His 29.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.52 ft/sec now.
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