Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Reds Matchup Today

When assessing his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

The #1 park in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Among all parks, Great American Ball Park’s right field dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his home run talent, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in MLB for righty home runs.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.5-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for bats.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The #6 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

When assessing his batting average skill, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 20th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jose Iglesias has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme flyball batters like Jose Iglesias generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

The 7th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB are found in Great American Ball Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Tyler Stephenson’s BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler Stephenson has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Gavin Lux’s BABIP skill is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gavin Lux is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Jose Trevino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

Jose Trevino will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Luis Arraez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

Luis Arraez will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez today.

When estimating his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #1 stadium in the league for boosting home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks today.

Dylan Cease has averaged 94.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 90th percentile.

When it comes to his strikeout ability, Dylan Cease projects as the 8th-best SP in the league currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson).

In his previous start, Dylan Cease was in good form and posted 7 strikeouts.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Gavin Sheets will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez today.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, TJ Friedl will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Jose Trevino, the Reds’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Nick Martinez will hold that advantage today.

Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

Spencer Steer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Reds

Elly De La Cruz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23,° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 16.5% on the season to 10% in the last week’s worth of games.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Elly De La Cruz has experienced some positive variance this year. His .365 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .330.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Dylan Cease will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christian Encarnacion-Strand in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has recorded a .239 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 19th percentile.

Posting a 10.92 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Christian Encarnacion-Strand has demonstrated weak plate discipline, placing in the 5th percentile.

By putting up a .234 BABIP since the start of last season, Christian Encarnacion-Strand grades out in the 16th percentile.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Jackson Merrill’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 93.3-mph EV last season has dropped to 91.2-mph.

When estimating his home run talent, Jose Iglesias ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Iglesias is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Jose Iglesias will have a tough challenge today.

Jose Iglesias will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity this season, from 85.8 mph last year to 83.5 mph now,Jose Iglesias’s launch angle this year (-1°) is a significant dropoff from his 8.8° angle last year.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Xander Bogaerts encounters a tough challenge today.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

In the past two weeks, Xander Bogaerts’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (3.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.6°.

In notching a 11.000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Xander Bogaerts is positioned in the 18th percentile for power.

Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Dylan Cease will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Stephenson in today’s matchup.

In the last week, Tyler Stephenson’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 49.5%.

Tyler Stephenson has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .234 figure is considerably higher than his .216 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Tyler Stephenson has notched a .225 batting average this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile.

Over the last 14 days, Tyler Stephenson’s 17.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 23.1%.

23% of the time that Gavin Lux has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

Gavin Lux’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 86.1-mph over the last 7 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.305) provides evidence that Gavin Lux has been very fortunate this year with his .333 actual wOBA.

Based on Statcast metrics, Gavin Lux is in the 8th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 7.500.

Grading out in the 15th percentile for power, Gavin Lux has averaged 7.6 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Nick Martinez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Manny Machado in today’s game.

Manny Machado has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph dropping to 90.2-mph over the past 14 days.

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 15.2% on the season to 7.9% in the last 14 days.

Despite posting a .366 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Manny Machado has had positive variance on his side given the .018 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

Jake Cronenworth will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 47.2% to 40%.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

From last season to this one, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 48.8% to 38.3%.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 93.5-mph seasonal average has decreased to 90.5-mph in the past 7 days.

Jose Trevino’s BABIP talent is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Trevino is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Trevino has been pinch hit for 10% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Jose Trevino will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Jose Trevino has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jose Trevino ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez today.

From last season to this one, Luis Arraez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.9 mph to 85.7 mph.

In terms of his home runs, Luis Arraez has been lucky this year. His 5.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.0.

Luis Arraez has hit 4.4 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 10th percentile for power.

In notching a .296 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Luis Arraez grades out in the 24th percentile for hitting ability.

Dylan Cease projects as the 20th-best pitcher in the majors right now, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Dylan Cease’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 92nd percentile among all starters.

Among all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate of 2542 rpm is in the 95th percentile this year.

With a 3.13 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the variables most within a pitcher’s control), Dylan Cease ranks in the 88th percentile.

Dylan Cease has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in the league on balls in play this year with a .339 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

Dylan Cease will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gavin Sheets today.

Gavin Sheets has been lucky this year, notching a .335 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .020 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 25th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Despite posting a .351 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 15th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

TJ Friedl’s launch angle recently (8.1° in the last week’s worth of games) is considerably lower than his 12.6° seasonal mark.

TJ Friedl’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 18.8% to 13.9%.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Nick Martinez is projected to throw 81 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least on the slate today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.7% underlying K%.

Checking in at the 17th percentile, Nick Martinez recorded an 8.6% Swinging Strike percentage this year.

The 7% Barrel% of the San Diego Padres makes them the #28 group of hitters in the league this year by this standard.

San Diego’s 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #28 squad in the game this year by this standard.

Dylan Cease will have the handedness advantage over Spencer Steer in today’s matchup.

Spencer Steer has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Spencer Steer’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 15.3% to 12.2%.

Spencer Steer’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, decreasing from 12.2% on the season to 9.1% in the last week’s worth of games.

Spencer Steer has posted a .284 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 14th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.228) provides evidence that Spencer Steer has been lucky this year with his .243 actual batting average.

Dylan Cease will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt McLain in today’s game.

Matt McLain’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 93.8-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 90.1-mph in the last 14 days.

Matt McLain’s launch angle lately (4.8° in the past 7 days) is considerably lower than his 15.9° seasonal angle.

Placing in the 10th percentile, Matt McLain has put up a .312 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

Matt McLain has put up a .191 batting average this year, ranking in the 4th percentile.

Grading out in the 12th percentile, Matt McLain has put up a .272 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

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