Padres vs Phillies match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Wednesday, July 2nd

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Padres vs Phillies match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Wednesday, July 2nd

SD @ PHI

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Series Game 3 Matchup Details

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Wednesday, July 2nd
02/07/25 18:15:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Phillies Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Jackson Merrill’s launch angle of late (25.8° over the last 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 13.8° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for long-balls.

Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as baseball’s 3rd-best home run batter.

Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s matchup.

Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 18th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Nick Castellanos will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Nick Castellanos has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 16.1% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 10th-best batter in the majors when estimating his batting average ability.

Trea Turner is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Trea Turner will hold that advantage today.

Trea Turner has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 93.2-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Manny Machado is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

Manny Machado will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jake Cronenworth has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jake Cronenworth’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.5% up to 33.3%.

Jake Cronenworth has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 97.3-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today’s game.

Max Kepler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s game.

Max Kepler will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has suffered from bad luck this year. His .297 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.

Luis Arraez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 85.6-mph over the course of the season to 87.8-mph lately.

Luis Arraez’s launch angle of late (22.2° in the last week’s worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 13.3° seasonal figure.

When assessing his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 13th-best batter in the game.

Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage today.

Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage today.

Alec Bohm’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Alec Bohm will hold that advantage today.

Alec Bohm has recorded a .284 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brandon Marsh will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s game.

Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

Brandon Marsh will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Over the last 7 days, Brandon Marsh’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10% up to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Cristopher Sanchez in the 85th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

Cristopher Sanchez has averaged 91.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his metrics across the board.

Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last year’s 90.8-mph mark.

Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 13.6% on the season to 19.5% over the past 14 days.

Gavin Sheets has performed at a clip of 24.1 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 77th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Sporting a .340 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Gavin Sheets has performed in the 76th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Bryson Stott will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Compared to last season, Bryson Stott has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.2% to 21.1% this season.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Phillies Series Game 3

The #7 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.

Citizens Bank Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

Cristopher Sanchez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Merrill in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Jackson Merrill’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 90.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 86-mph in the last week.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #24 ballpark in the game for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Xander Bogaerts today.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 11°, Xander Bogaerts has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.9°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

By putting up a 11.600 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Xander Bogaerts has performed in the 20th percentile for power.

Kyle Schwarber’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 99.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 97.2-mph in the past two weeks.

Kyle Schwarber has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 29.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side this year. His .390 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .355.

Dylan Cease will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Castellanos today.

As it relates to plate discipline, Nick Castellanos’s ability is quite bad, putting up a 3.76 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 21st percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Trea Turner will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Trea Turner’s 31% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 42.6%.

Trea Turner has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .295 rate is a fair amount higher than his .279 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Manny Machado has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 11.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past 7 days.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jake Cronenworth faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Cronenworth in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

In the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.4% down to 0%.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 48.8% to 37.3%.

Max Kepler’s BABIP ability is projected in the 13th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Max Kepler is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Max Kepler has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 12.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 14 days.

When assessing his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Luis Arraez has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez today.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph mark last season has lowered to 85.6-mph.

Bryce Harper’s footspeed has fallen off this year. His 27.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.81 ft/sec now.

Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Alec Bohm will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Over the last 7 days, Alec Bohm’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 92.4 mph to 82.8 mph.

Alec Bohm’s launch angle this year (6.8°) is significantly worse than his 10° figure last season.

Brandon Marsh is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

17% of the time that Brandon Marsh has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Brandon Marsh’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, decreasing from 16.5% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

The San Diego Padres (17.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Gavin Sheets will have a tough challenge today.

Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Bryson Stott is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Bryson Stott’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 82.6-mph over the last week.

Bryson Stott’s launch angle of late (1.5° in the past 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 15.4° seasonal figure.

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