Cardinals @ Padres Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positives for the St. Louis Cardinals Series Game 2 Game Today

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the most humid conditions on the slate today at 85%.

,Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 16th-best hitter in the majors.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

,In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,In Major League Baseball, Petco Park’s CF dimensions are the shallowest.

,Hitting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Victor Scott II has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 92.2-mph over the last two weeks.

,Victor Scott II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 12.5% on the season to 25% over the last week.

,Alec Burleson’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Jackson Merrill is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

,Freddy Fermin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Freddy Fermin will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Sung-Mun Song will have the handedness advantage against Michael McGreevy in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Sung-Mun Song will hold that advantage today.

,The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker).

,It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Cory Blaser) in charge of the strike zone today.

,Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Griffin Canning will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,In his previous game started, Griffin Canning performed well and accumulated 7 strikeouts.

,Miguel Andujar is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

,Miguel Andujar hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Miguel Andujar will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Manny Machado is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.

,Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

,By putting up a .367 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ivan Herrera finds himself in the 92nd percentile for hitting ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Church in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Nathan Church will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning today.

,Masyn Winn has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 9.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 13.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Griffin Canning in today’s matchup.

,Nolan Gorman has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.5% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past week.

,Nolan Gorman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 94.1-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

,Griffin Canning has been lucky since the start of last season, compiling a 3.65 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.49 — a 0.84 discrepancy.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Ramon Laureano has a ton of pop (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (26.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Laureano.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Andujar in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Ramon Laureano has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 7 days.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) projects as a good pitch framer.

,With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Michael McGreevy should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

,Nathan Church’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 18.2% on the season to 22.2% in the last week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

,Batting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, JJ Wetherholt will have an advantage in today’s game.

,JJ Wetherholt hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,By putting up a .288 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ivan Herrera has performed in the 92nd percentile.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jackson Merrill will have the handedness advantage against Michael McGreevy today.

,Michael McGreevy’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (58.7% vs. 53.1% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

,Manny Machado will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,The Barrel% of Jordan Walker has significantly improved, with an increase from 11.2% last year to 20.5% this season.

Negatives with the San Diego Padres Series Game 2 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 19th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

,Petco Park profiles as the #24 field in the majors for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Petco Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense.

,Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Among every team playing today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

,Petco Park ranks as the #22 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Michael McGreevy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

,Over the last 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.6% down to 0%.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Victor Scott II ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Victor Scott II is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,18% of the time that Victor Scott II has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,Among every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

,Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Alec Burleson’s launch angle lately (0.4° in the last two weeks) is significantly worse than his 7.2° seasonal mark.

,Jackson Merrill’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 47.9% to 37.1%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddy Fermin in the 17th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

,Batting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Freddy Fermin will be in a tough position in today’s game.

,Freddy Fermin’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 89.1-mph EV last year has dropped off to 87.1-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sung-Mun Song in the 16th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Sung-Mun Song is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Out of all starters, Griffin Canning’s fastball spin rate of 2150 rpm ranks in the 19th percentile since the start of last season.

,Michael McGreevy will have the handedness advantage against Miguel Andujar in today’s game.

,Miguel Andujar’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 13.2% to 9.7%.

,In the last 7 days, Miguel Andujar’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.7%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Miguel Andujar’s true offensive skill to be a .302, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .054 difference between that figure and his actual .356 wOBA.

,Batting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Manny Machado faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Manny Machado’s launch angle in recent games (0.8° in the last week’s worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 7.8° seasonal angle.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.3% down to 0%.

,Gavin Sheets has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 86.4-mph over the past week.

,Gavin Sheets’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 16% on the season to 0% over the past week.

,Griffin Canning will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ivan Herrera today.

,Ivan Herrera has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

,Nathan Church is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Nathan Church has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 13% of the time.

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nathan Church today.

,The #7 ballpark in baseball for suppressing batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

,As it relates to his home run skill, Masyn Winn ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Masyn Winn is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Griffin Canning throws from, Masyn Winn will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 7th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

,Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 84th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

,Nolan Gorman will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Posting a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Nolan Gorman is positioned in the 16th percentile for offensive ability.

,It may be best to expect worse results for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

,Petco Park projects as the #24 park in MLB for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,Michael McGreevy will hold the platoon advantage against Ramon Laureano in today’s game.

,In the last 14 days, Ramon Laureano’s 8.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 12th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Pedro Pages is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

,Griffin Canning will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages today.

,In today’s matchup, Pedro Pages is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (80th percentile).

,Hitting from the same side that Griffin Canning throws from, Jordan Walker will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jordan Walker in today’s matchup.

,Generating 14.3 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Griffin Canning ranks in the 12th percentile.

,Jordan Walker has been lucky this year, putting up a .406 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .073 discrepancy.

,Jordan Walker has put up a .273 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 8th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Victor Scott II will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Victor Scott II’s launch angle this season (6°) is quite a bit lower than his 14.8° figure last year.

,The San Diego Padres have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future,Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael McGreevy in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for JJ Wetherholt in today’s matchup.

,In the past 14 days, Jackson Merrill’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.4% down to 3.7%.

,Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle this year (2.9°) is considerably worse than his 9.6° figure last season.

,In the last week, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.6%.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ivan Herrera in today’s matchup.

,Over the past week, Ivan Herrera’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.

,Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.6-mph mark last year has fallen off to 84.1-mph.

,When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael McGreevy in the 6th percentile among all SPs in the game.

,Michael McGreevy’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 6th percentile among all starters.

,Placing in the 6th percentile, Michael McGreevy notched a 6.7% Swinging Strike% this year.

,Manny Machado’s launch angle this season (7.8°) is considerably worse than his 14.4° figure last season.

,Nathan Church has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 20.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 0.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Nathan Church has notched a .262 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 25th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

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