Mets @ D-Backs Matchup Details

Positives for the New York Mets Game Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball.

,Juan Soto is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

,Chase Field profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to better offense.

,The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Ryne Nelson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his metrics in all categories.

,Ryne Nelson’s slider rate has jumped by 7.3% from last year to this one (12.6% to 19.9%) .

,Out of all starting pitchers, Ryne Nelson’s fastball velocity of 95.6 mph is in the 78th percentile this year.

,Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Carson Benge will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Carson Benge may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

,In the past week, Carson Benge’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.1-mph over the course of the season to 104.6-mph lately.

,Ildemaro Vargas is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

,Ildemaro Vargas will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s launch angle this year (8°) is considerably better than his 3.2° figure last season.

,Alek Thomas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan McLean in today’s game.

,Alek Thomas will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,Alek Thomas’s launch angle this season (11.3°) is significantly better than his 4.3° figure last year.

,Chase Field projects as the #2 park in MLB for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Despite posting a .266 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcus Semien has experienced some negative variance given the .054 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

,Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Geraldo Perdomo will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,In the last 14 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.1-mph over the course of the season to 90.7-mph lately.

,The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Nolan McLean will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nolan McLean in today’s game.

,Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nolan McLean has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.2% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

,Ketel Marte projects as the 19th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,As it relates to his batting average skill, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Bo Bichette is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,When estimating his home run skill, Mark Vientos ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Mark Vientos is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

,When it comes to his home run skill, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Francisco Alvarez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.

,Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Adrian Del Castillo will have an edge in today’s game.

,Extreme flyball hitters like Adrian Del Castillo tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.

,In the past two weeks, Carson Benge’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Gabriel Moreno will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,MJ Melendez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, MJ Melendez will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Alek Thomas’s launch angle of late (15.1° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 11.3° seasonal angle.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Over the past 7 days, Gabriel Moreno’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.9% up to 22.2%.

,Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 35.6% on the season to 60% in the past week’s worth of games.

,When assessing his home run skill, Adrian Del Castillo ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Brett Baty is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage over Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brett Baty stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

,Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

,Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB today.

,Extreme flyball hitters like Brett Baty tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

,When estimating his home run talent, MJ Melendez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Mark Vientos has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.4% seasonal rate to 38.5% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Batting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an edge today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Bats such as Bo Bichette with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryne Nelson who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage today.

,Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 16.8% to 20.5%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nolan McLean in the 89th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

,In his last game started, Nolan McLean was firing on all cylinders and compiled 8 strikeouts.

,Placing in the 98th percentile, Nolan McLean has compiled a 31.3% Strikeout% this year.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Game Today

In Major League Baseball, the 10th-highest average fence height are at Chase Field.

,Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Juan Soto in today’s game.

,In today’s game, Corbin Carroll is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.6% rate (85th percentile).

,Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 94.5-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 88-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,Corbin Carroll’s launch angle this season (9.9°) is significantly worse than his 16.8° angle last season.

,Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, falling from 11.5% on the season to 0% in the past week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the worst field in MLB for strikeouts.

,Given that groundball batters have a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Ryne Nelson and his 37.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot today squaring off against 3 opposing GB bats.

,Carson Benge is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

,The 3rd-deepest CF fences among all parks are found in Chase Field.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Carson Benge today.

,When estimating his home run talent, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The #5 park in the game for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ildemaro Vargas will bat from his bad side against Nolan McLean in today’s matchup.

,Ildemaro Vargas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Alek Thomas is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Alek Thomas has been pinch hit for 12% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

,Extreme flyball batters like Alek Thomas generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nolan McLean.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 20th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Marcus Semien is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Marcus Semien will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Marcus Semien hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 80th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 11th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,In today’s matchup, Geraldo Perdomo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (76th percentile).

,From last season to this one, Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.2% to 9%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nolan McLean in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

,Because flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Nolan McLean (49.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.

,In his last outing, Nolan McLean was in good form and conceded 2 ER.

,Alek Thomas’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 89.3-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 84.8-mph in the last 14 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Nolan McLean,In today’s matchup, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (95th percentile).

,Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Bo Bichette will be in a tough position in today’s game.

,In today’s matchup, Bo Bichette is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.2% rate (98th percentile).

,Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bo Bichette in today’s game.

,Bo Bichette’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.6-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 83.3-mph over the past week.

,Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage over Mark Vientos in today’s matchup.

,Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,Mark Vientos will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Sporting a 3.78 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Mark Vientos has shown bad plate discipline, checking in at the 20th percentile.

,Francisco Alvarez is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

,Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Francisco Alvarez encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Francisco Alvarez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Francisco Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Adrian Del Castillo’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,18% of the time that Adrian Del Castillo has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

,Adrian Del Castillo has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .232 rate is a fair amount higher than his .201 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Batting from the same side that Nolan McLean throws from, Gabriel Moreno faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,In today’s game, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.7% rate (98th percentile).

,MJ Melendez’s BABIP talent is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,MJ Melendez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,MJ Melendez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Over the last week, MJ Melendez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.6% down to 0%.

,Extreme flyball hitters like Marcus Semien tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

,MJ Melendez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 93.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 90.3-mph over the last week.

,Chase Field ranks as the #24 ballpark in the game for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 43.9% to 35.6%.

,When it comes to his home runs, Adrian Del Castillo has been lucky since the start of last season. His 20.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.2.

,Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brett Baty today.

,Brett Baty has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.

,Brett Baty’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 79.2-mph in the past 7 days.

,There has been a significant decline in Bo Bichette’s launch angle from last season’s 8.7° to 4.7° this year.

,Tallying 13.4 outs per outing this year on average, Ryne Nelson places him the 11th percentile.

,The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season,Ildemaro Vargas’s BABIP talent is projected in the 11th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Extreme groundball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.

,Over the last 14 days, Ildemaro Vargas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.

,Adrian Del Castillo has exhibited weak plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 12th percentile with a 6.26 K/BB rate.

,There has been a significant decline in Ketel Marte’s launch angle from last year’s 15.3° to 7.9° this year.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks (20.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate.

,Brett Baty’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, going from 10.1% on the season to 0% over the past week.

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