Cardinals @ Cubs Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the St. Louis Cardinals Series Game 3 Game Today

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all major league parks.

,Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

,Seiya Suzuki will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today’s matchup.

,Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage today.

,Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,Javier Assad will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his metrics in all categories.

,Javier Assad has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 5.40 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.40 — a 1 K/9 discrepancy.

,When it comes to his home run talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

,JJ Wetherholt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Javier Assad today.

,JJ Wetherholt has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 92.2-mph over the last 7 days.

,In the last week, JJ Wetherholt’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Ian Happ pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Ian Happ will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Ian Happ’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.4% up to 20%.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Michael Busch is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

,Michael Busch will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

,Kevin Alcantara’s BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Kevin Alcantara will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Kevin Alcantara will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

,Michael Busch has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.4% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alec Burleson ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Hitting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage today.

,Alec Burleson has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Carson Kelly is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,Carson Kelly will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore today.

,Carson Kelly will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Based on Statcast metrics, Carson Kelly is in the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .340.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage against Javier Assad in today’s game.

,Lars Nootbaar has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph figure.

,Lars Nootbaar has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 13.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 23.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Blaze Jordan’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 21.6% on the season to 50% in the last week’s worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Dansby Swanson will have the upper hand today.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Dansby Swanson has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 8.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Lars Nootbaar’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 43.6% on the season to 50% in the last 14 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

,Ivan Herrera has recorded a .367 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 92nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Posting a .288 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ivan Herrera is ranked in the 92nd percentile.

,Nathan Church will hold the platoon advantage over Javier Assad today.

,Nathan Church has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 89.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 86.2-mph EV.

,Nathan Church’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 15.7% on the season to 20% in the last week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,Nico Hoerner will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage today.

,Nico Hoerner’s launch angle lately (20.6° over the past 14 days) is considerably higher than his 13.1° seasonal mark.

,Nico Hoerner has been unlucky this year, compiling a .292 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .026 difference.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 17th-best batter in the game as it relates to his batting average talent.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Jordan in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jimmy Crooks in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,Batting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Jimmy Crooks will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Jimmy Crooks has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 17.1° mark is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (83rd percentile).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

,Jordan Walker has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal figure of 95.4-mph.

,In notching a .373 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jordan Walker has performed in the 93rd percentile.

,Placing in the 83rd percentile, Ivan Herrera has notched a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

,The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Javier Assad in the 23rd percentile when assessing his overall pitching skills.

,Out of all starters, Javier Assad’s fastball spin rate of 2138 rpm is in the 15th percentile this year.

,Javier Assad’s high utilization rate of his fastball (58.1% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

,With a 0.8 disparity between Javier Assad’s 4.53 ERA and his 5.33 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and ought to see negative regression going forward.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the Chicago Cubs Series Game 3 Game Today

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

,Seiya Suzuki’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 91.5-mph EV last year has dropped to 89.4-mph.

,Over the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 93.5 mph to 88 mph.

,In the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.3%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Alex Bregman’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 89.9-mph EV last year has dropped off to 87.8-mph.

,Putting up a lowly an 86-mph average exit velocity over the last 14 days, Alex Bregman has been in a slump recently.

,Sporting a .230 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Alex Bregman has performed in the 24th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

,Masyn Winn is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

,Wrigley Field has the 7th-tallest average fence height among all major league stadiums.

,Hitting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Masyn Winn faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Javier Assad in the 6th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

,Javier Assad has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 10.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.9% underlying K%.

,Projected catcher Carson Kelly grades out as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Matthew Liberatore will have the handedness advantage over Pete Crow-Armstrong in today’s matchup.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 7 days.

,The 5th-deepest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.

,The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the best among all the teams today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for JJ Wetherholt in today’s game.

,Ian Happ is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

,The switch-hitting Ian Happ will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Matthew Liberatore,Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 48.4% to 35.4%.

,Matthew Liberatore will hold the platoon advantage over Michael Busch in today’s matchup.

,Michael Busch has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 17% rate last season has dropped to 11.4% this season.

,Kevin Alcantara is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Kevin Alcantara and his 0° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 4th percentile, among the lowest in the league since the start of last season.

,Grading out in the 11th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.51 ft/sec since the start of last season, Kevin Alcantara is quite slow.

,In notching a .224 batting average this year, Ian Happ is ranked in the 23rd percentile.

,Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Alec Burleson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 16.5% on the season to 4% in the last 14 days.

,Carson Kelly’s BABIP talent is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Carson Kelly’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Carson Kelly’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 92.6 mph to 87 mph.

,Lars Nootbaar will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Over the last 7 days, Lars Nootbaar’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 94.8 mph to 85.5 mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blaze Jordan in the 25th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,Blaze Jordan is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

,Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Blaze Jordan meets a tough challenge today.

,Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Dansby Swanson has notched a .223 BABIP this year, grading out in the 2nd percentile.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Masyn Winn in today’s game.

,Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Ivan Herrera will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,In today’s matchup, Ivan Herrera is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.6% rate (79th percentile).

,Nathan Church is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph dropping to 78.9-mph over the past 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

,Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Nico Hoerner has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will be challenged by the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.

,Nico Hoerner has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 82.9-mph in the past two weeks.

,This year, Seiya Suzuki’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 16.9% last year to just 8.4% this year.

,Jimmy Crooks is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

,Batting from the same side that Javier Assad throws from, Jordan Walker encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jordan Walker in today’s game.

,Ivan Herrera will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

,Jimmy Crooks will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,The Chicago Cubs have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in this matchup.

,Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Matthew Liberatore in today’s matchup.

,In his last outing, Matthew Liberatore struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.

,Matthew Liberatore’s cut-fastball percentage has dropped by 6.5% from last season to this one (10.6% to 4.1%) .

,In the last week’s worth of games, Jordan Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.2% down to 0%.

,Chicago’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Nathan Church, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

,Carson Kelly’s launch angle of late (3.4° over the last two weeks) is considerably lower than his 11.7° seasonal angle.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Blaze Jordan in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst ballpark in baseball for home runs.

,Over the past 7 days, Nico Hoerner’s 29.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.5%.

,Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nathan Church in today’s matchup.

,Checking in at the 14th percentile, Alex Bregman has put up a .160 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

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