
MIL @ LAD


Series Game 3 Matchup Details
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Sunday, July 20th
20/07/25 16:10:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Brewers vs Dodgers Series Game 3 Matchup Today
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the 8th-best ballpark in the league for righty batting average.
Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Joey Ortiz will have an advantage today.
Joey Ortiz’s launch angle this season (14.1°) is considerably better than his 9.6° figure last season.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Ortiz’s true offensive ability to be a .301, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .046 difference between that mark and his actual .255 wOBA.
The #1 park in the league for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.
Dodger Stadium has the 2nd-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.
Jackson Chourio’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jackson Chourio is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.
Hitting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Jackson Chourio will have an edge in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.
Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Batting from the opposite that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Caleb Durbin will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Caleb Durbin’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, going from 34.2% on the season to 55% in the past 14 days.
Sporting a 1.24 K/BB rate this year, Caleb Durbin has demonstrated strong plate discipline, grading out in the 94th percentile.
Caleb Durbin’s launch angle recently (17.7° in the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 13.5° seasonal angle.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball.
Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the best field in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.
Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium’s centerfield fences are the 9th-shallowest.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 8th-best ballpark in the majors for lefty batting average.
Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Shohei Ohtani will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Projected catcher William Contreras projects as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Jose Quintana has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
Jose Quintana has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, compiling a 6.06 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.79 — a 0.74 K/9 deviation.
Compared to their .348 overall projected rate, the .335 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.
Jose Quintana is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.
In his previous outing, Jose Quintana was in good form and conceded 0 ER.
Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Clayton Kershaw (44.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
Clayton Kershaw will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his metrics in all categories.
Clayton Kershaw’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (63.1% this year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Clayton Kershaw has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.22 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.45 — a 1.24 K/9 difference.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Clayton Kershaw’s overall pitching skill ranks in the 76th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball currently.
It may be wise to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
Clayton Kershaw is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Mookie Betts ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.
Mookie Betts will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today’s game.
Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Will Smith projects as the 17th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Will Smith is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.
Will Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today’s game.
Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Tommy Edman will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Jose Quintana in this game.
Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Tommy Edman will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Tommy Edman’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 36.9% to 48.2%.
As it relates to his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Freddie Freeman is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.
Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Freddie Freeman will hold that advantage in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
William Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.
William Contreras will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today’s matchup.
William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Miguel Rojas will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana today.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Miguel Rojas will hold that advantage in today’s game.
This season, Miguel Rojas has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 88.7 mph compared to last year’s 86.6 mph mark.
In terms of plate discipline, Miguel Rojas’s ability is quite impressive, sporting a 1.63 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 88th percentile.
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Christian Yelich is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Christian Yelich is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.
Compared to his seasonal average of 1.4°, Christian Yelich has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 40.5° mark over the past 7 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.
Andrew Vaughn is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.
Andrew Vaughn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in today’s game.
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Andy Pages ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Andy Pages is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.
Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Andy Pages will have an edge in today’s matchup.
Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Last year, Brice Turang had an average launch angle of 3.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 9.9°.
Brice Turang’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 15.4% on the season to 40% in the past week’s worth of games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Isaac Collins will get to bat from his better side against Clayton Kershaw in this game.
With a 1.75 K/BB rate this year, Isaac Collins has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 78th percentile.
Isaac Collins has recorded a .334 BABIP this year, checking in at the 86th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esteury Ruiz in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.
Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Esteury Ruiz will have the upper hand today.
Esteury Ruiz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Esteury Ruiz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Negative Match Player Stats with Brewers vs Dodgers Series Game 3
Joey Ortiz is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.
Joey Ortiz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense grades out as the 5th-strongest among all the teams in action today.
Joey Ortiz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.8-mph mark last year has fallen to 85.5-mph.
In notching a 9.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Joey Ortiz has performed in the 14th percentile for power.
Jackson Chourio will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.4) may lead us to conclude that Jackson Chourio has had some very good luck this year with his 22.6 actual HR/600.
Sporting a 4.51 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Chourio has shown poor plate discipline, grading out in the 13th percentile.
From last year to this one, Jackson Chourio’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16% to 13%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 10th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.
Caleb Durbin is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.
Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Caleb Durbin in today’s matchup.
In the last two weeks, Caleb Durbin’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 88.8 mph to 81.3 mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 12th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.
Caleb Durbin has been cold recently, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Jose Quintana will hold the platoon advantage against Shohei Ohtani today.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (37.1) suggests that Shohei Ohtani has had positive variance on his side this year with his 43.8 actual HR/600.
Shohei Ohtani has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .409 rate is inflated compared to his .380 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jose Quintana in the 9th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jose Quintana is projected to throw 81 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.
It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Chad Fairchild) in charge of the strike zone today.
Dodger Stadium profiles as the #24 field in MLB for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Because flyball batters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jose Quintana and his 44.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this outing matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for home runs.
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clayton Kershaw is projected to throw 74 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least on the slate today.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Will Smith (the Dodgers’s expected catcher today) projects as a weak pitch framer.
The Milwaukee Brewers have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in this matchup.
Mookie Betts has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.
Placing in the 7th percentile, Mookie Betts sports a .247 BABIP this year.
Will Smith has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .323 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .284 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Will Smith’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (16.6°) is significantly lower than his 21.3° mark last season.
Despite posting a .413 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Will Smith has had some very good luck given the .049 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .364.
Tommy Edman is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
Tommy Edman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 79.8-mph over the past 14 days.
Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.8°, Tommy Edman has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-4.1°) in the last two weeks.
With a .287 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Tommy Edman grades out in the 22nd percentile.
Tommy Edman has notched a .233 BABIP this year, checking in at the 1st percentile.
Tommy Edman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 17.1% to 13.6%.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (9.8) provides evidence that Tommy Edman has experienced some positive variance this year with his 20.6 actual HR/600.
Batting from the same side that Jose Quintana throws from, Freddie Freeman has a tough challenge in today’s game.
In the last two weeks, Freddie Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 94.4 mph to 87 mph.
Freddie Freeman has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .359 rate is a good deal higher than his .321 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Extreme groundball hitters like William Contreras tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Clayton Kershaw.
Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for William Contreras in today’s matchup.
William Contreras has struggled with his Barrel%; his 10% rate last season has dropped to 4.5% this year.
William Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, falling from 8.5% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.
William Contreras has performed at a clip of 11.0 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 20th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
When estimating his home run skill, Miguel Rojas ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Miguel Rojas is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
In today’s matchup, Miguel Rojas is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.6% rate (75th percentile).
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.6) implies that Miguel Rojas has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 13.9 actual HR/600.
Miguel Rojas’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 46.3% to 37.8%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Miguel Rojas has had some very good luck this year. His .309 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .265.
Hitting from the same side that Clayton Kershaw throws from, Christian Yelich meets a tough challenge in today’s game.
Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Clayton Kershaw.
Christian Yelich will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Christian Yelich has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 79-mph in the past 14 days.
Christian Yelich’s launch angle this season (1.4°) is significantly lower than his 5.1° figure last year.
Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Andrew Vaughn in today’s game.
Andrew Vaughn has posted a .266 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 10th percentile.
Andrew Vaughn has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 8th percentile with a 5.25 K/BB rate.
Andrew Vaughn’s speed has declined this year. His 26.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.79 ft/sec now.
Over the last 14 days, Andy Pages’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.
Andy Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 91.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 82.7-mph over the past 14 days.
Andy Pages’s launch angle recently (-7.7° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit worse than his 16.3° seasonal mark.
Andy Pages has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 27.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 19.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Andy Pages has exhibited poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 17th percentile with a 4.31 K/BB rate.
When assessing his home run talent, Brice Turang ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
Clayton Kershaw will have the handedness advantage against Brice Turang in today’s matchup.
Extreme groundball hitters like Brice Turang are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clayton Kershaw.
Brice Turang will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.
Isaac Collins is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.
Isaac Collins will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.
In the last 14 days, Isaac Collins’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.
Over the past 14 days, Isaac Collins’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 89.2 mph to 83.5 mph.
Isaac Collins’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (-2.3° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit lower than his 9° seasonal figure.
Esteury Ruiz is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.
Esteury Ruiz’s quickness has dropped off this season. His 29.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.56 ft/sec now.
Using Statcast data, Esteury Ruiz is in the 15th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .196.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esteury Ruiz in the 18th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.
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