Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Cardinals vs D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Miles Mikolas in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Adrian Del Castillo will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Adrian Del Castillo’s 11.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

Adrian Del Castillo and his 19.8° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 91st percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

Posting a .379 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Adrian Del Castillo is positioned in the 98th percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Victor Scott II will have an edge in today’s game.

Victor Scott II has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 89.8-mph.

Checking in at the 79th percentile, Victor Scott II sports a .322 BABIP this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Merrill Kelly’s overall pitching skill grades out in the 85th percentile among all SPs in the majors currently.

Merrill Kelly has averaged 92.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 84th percentile.

It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Gabe Morales) behind the plate today.

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Merrill Kelly in the 81st percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average.

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 17.6% on the season to 26.1% in the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.5) suggests that Willson Contreras has been unlucky this year with his 18.8 actual HR/600.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has a pitch-to-contact profile (17th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

Eugenio Suarez will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

In the last 7 days, Eugenio Suarez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.7% up to 22.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Josh Naylor is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Josh Naylor will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Josh Naylor will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Sporting a 1.45 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has displayed favorable plate discipline, placing in the 87th percentile.

Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.8% to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage today.

In the last two weeks, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 18.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Geraldo Perdomo will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Geraldo Perdomo’s launch angle in recent games (31.3° in the last 7 days) is considerably higher than his 14.3° seasonal mark.

Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 13% to 20.9%.

Posting a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Geraldo Perdomo is ranked in the 86th percentile for offensive ability.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.315 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .333 wOBA this year.

It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) grades out as a good pitch framer.

Miles Mikolas’s 2212-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eugenio Suarez, James McCann, Blaze Alexander, Adrian Del Castillo).

Miles Mikolas’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.2% compared to 49% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

Ivan Herrera’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Ivan Herrera has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.8-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph mark.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 84th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 25.500.

Pedro Pages has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.6-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pedro Pages’s true offensive talent to be a .281, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .024 gap between that mark and his actual .257 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

There has been a significant improvement in Alec Burleson’s launch angle from last season’s 13.4° to 17.1° this year.

Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Alek Thomas will have the upper hand today.

Batters such as Alek Thomas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Alek Thomas will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Alek Thomas has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.5-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 91.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge today.

Brendan Donovan’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 45.8% to 54.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Brendan Donovan has been hot recently, posting a .347 wOBA in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

When it comes to his home runs, Brendan Donovan has had some very poor luck this year. His 12.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.9.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Despite posting a .252 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has been unlucky given the .055 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Jordan Walker’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to measure power) has been 116.5 mph this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an edge in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Corbin Carroll will hold that advantage today.

Corbin Carroll has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.3% rate last year to 15.4% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Masyn Winn’s launch angle this year (17.1°) is significantly better than his 13° mark last season.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.0) implies that Masyn Winn has had bad variance on his side this year with his 11.7 actual HR/600.

Negative Match Player Stats with Cardinals vs D-Backs Series Game 3

Adrian Del Castillo’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 21st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

The 3rd-deepest centerfield dimensions in the majors are found in Chase Field.

The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

When it comes to his batting average, Adrian Del Castillo has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .312 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .191.

Among all stadiums, the 10th-tallest average fence height are at Chase Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 5th-worst field in the league for LHB home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 17th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Victor Scott II is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 21st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for BABIP.

Merrill Kelly has relied on his slider 5.3% less often this season (6.5%) than he did last year (11.8%).

Merrill Kelly’s 91.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 15th percentile among all starters.

Merrill Kelly has recorded a .248 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

Placing 7th-highest in the league this year, St. Louis Cardinals bats as a unit have notched a 15.3° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

The #8 venue in the game for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

In his last start, Merrill Kelly didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.

Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Willson Contreras meets a tough challenge today.

Willson Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 5th-worst stadium in baseball for RHB home runs.

Willson Contreras will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Miles Mikolas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eugenio Suarez in today’s game.

Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Miles Mikolas.

Eugenio Suarez has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .373 figure is quite a bit higher than his .314 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Josh Naylor’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 89.1-mph seasonal average has decreased to 83.6-mph over the last 14 days.

Josh Naylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 93.7-mph figure last season has dropped to 88.9-mph.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) implies that Josh Naylor has experienced some positive variance this year with his .294 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 7th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Merrill Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today’s game.

Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage over Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 6.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 14 days.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 91.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 84.2-mph over the last week.

Geraldo Perdomo’s BABIP talent is projected in the 17th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past week’s worth of games, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.3% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive ability to be a .309, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .036 disparity between that figure and his actual .345 wOBA.

When assessing his home run talent, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mikolas to throw 75 pitches in this matchup (4th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Given that groundball batters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Miles Mikolas and his 35.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in this matchup facing 2 opposing GB bats.

Miles Mikolas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Miles Mikolas’s 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decline from last year’s 93.1-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Miles Mikolas in the 11th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Ivan Herrera meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ivan Herrera in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Pedro Pages ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pedro Pages is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Pedro Pages has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 10% of the time.

Merrill Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages in today’s matchup.

Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alec Burleson today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Alec Burleson’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 91.5 mph to 89.3 mph.

Alek Thomas is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Alek Thomas has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time.

Over the past 14 days, Alek Thomas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brendan Donovan in today’s matchup.

Brendan Donovan’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 87.1-mph over the last 14 days.

Jordan Walker is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jordan Walker will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

In today’s game, Jordan Walker is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

As it relates to his home runs, Corbin Carroll has been lucky this year. His 34.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.4.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Masyn Winn will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

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