Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Mariners Series Game 3 Matchup Today

When it comes to his home run ability, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Dominic Canzone will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Dominic Canzone has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 106.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 93.6-mph.

In notching a .325 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Dominic Canzone grades out in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Bryan Woo as the 17th-best SP in the majors right now.

Recording 19.1 outs per start this year on average, Bryan Woo places in the 97th percentile.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Houston Astros offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the worst venue in the game for batting average.

When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Bryan Woo in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

The Houston Astros have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brice Matthews, Chas McCormick, Cam Smith).

T-Mobile Park projects as the #2 field in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Cole Young will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today’s matchup.

Cole Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Cole Young will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Cole Young has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.8% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the last two weeks.

Cole Young’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 16.7% on the season to 23.5% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cole Young in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Benjamin Williamson has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Benjamin Williamson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Over the past two weeks, Benjamin Williamson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 84.6-mph over the course of the season to 86.6-mph of late.

As it relates to his home runs, Benjamin Williamson has suffered from bad luck this year. His 2.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.7.

By putting up a .354 BABIP this year, Benjamin Williamson grades out in the 95th percentile.

Benjamin Williamson’s BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cam Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Cam Smith has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Cam Smith is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In notching a .275 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Cam Smith grades out in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Christian Walker is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Christian Walker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 14.5% on the season to 23.5% over the past 14 days.

Christian Walker has been unlucky this year, putting up a .289 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .037 gap.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Victor Caratini’s launch angle this season (15.6°) is quite a bit better than his 9.1° angle last season.

Victor Caratini has paced 24.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 76th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Grading out in the 76th percentile for power, Victor Caratini has paced 25.2 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jose Altuve ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Jose Altuve has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.7% seasonal rate to 15.6% in the past 14 days.

Jose Altuve’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (19.2° over the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 15.6° seasonal figure.

Jose Altuve’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, J.P. Crawford will have an advantage today.

J.P. Crawford has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Mauricio Dubon has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 12.1% to 21.8%.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Mauricio Dubon’s 29.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.8%.

By putting up a 1.73 K/BB rate this year, Mauricio Dubon has displayed strong plate discipline, ranking in the 79th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Randy Arozarena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today.

Over the last 14 days, Randy Arozarena has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.3% to 23.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 80th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Jorge Polanco tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Chas McCormick has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Chas McCormick’s launch angle this year (25.5°) is a considerable increase over his 15.1° figure last year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.284) implies that Chas McCormick has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .264 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his home runs, Chas McCormick has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 9.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 13.9.

As it relates to his home run ability, Luke Raley ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Luke Raley will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage today.

Luke Raley has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 88.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Hunter Brown projects as the 15th-best starter in Major League Baseball right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hunter Brown has averaged 94.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 92nd percentile.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Seattle Mariners offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

As it relates to his strikeout skill, Hunter Brown projects as the 19th-best starting pitcher in baseball currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Cal Raleigh projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme flyball batters like Cal Raleigh usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 11th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average ability.

Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Julio Rodriguez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

In the last week, Julio Rodriguez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.1% up to 33.3%.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Julio Rodriguez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Yainer Diaz has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 8.6% seasonal rate to 20.8% in the last 14 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Yainer Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.6-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph in recent games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Compared to his seasonal average of 12°, Yainer Diaz has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 16.9° mark over the past two weeks.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Mariners Series Game 3

Dominic Canzone is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

T-Mobile Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which tends to lead to less offense.

This game is predicted to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.3°, Dominic Canzone has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-4.5°) over the past 14 days.

From last season to this one, Dominic Canzone’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.1% to 10.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the worst park in baseball for run-scoring.

The #1 park in MLB for suppressing batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

Todd Tichenor profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be behind the plate in today’s game.

The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in T-Mobile Park.

Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

Bryan Woo’s high usage percentage of his fastball (70.6% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Bryan Woo has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the game on balls in play this year with a .247 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cole Young in the 23rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Cole Young is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Matthews in the 9th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Brice Matthews is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

T-Mobile Park profiles as the #30 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Brice Matthews ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Brice Matthews will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 5th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Benjamin Williamson is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Benjamin Williamson encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Logan Gilbert will have the handedness advantage over Cam Smith in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cam Smith today.

In the last week, Cam Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.

Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Christian Walker faces a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christian Walker in today’s matchup.

Christian Walker has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 11.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 14th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Victor Caratini will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Victor Caratini’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 86-mph over the past 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.6°, Victor Caratini has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.3°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Jose Altuve has a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Altuve in today’s matchup.

Jose Altuve has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 78.5-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Over the past two weeks, J.P. Crawford’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Over the last 7 days, J.P. Crawford’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 89.6 mph to 74.4 mph.

Despite posting a .350 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.P. Crawford has been very fortunate given the .026 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

Logan Gilbert will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 9th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Hunter Brown will have the handedness advantage against Randy Arozarena today.

Randy Arozarena has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .356 rate is a fair amount higher than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jorge Polanco has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 30.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 24.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Grading out in the 16th percentile, Jorge Polanco sports a .260 BABIP this year.

Chas McCormick is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Chas McCormick has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 21% of the time.

Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Chas McCormick has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Luke Raley is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Luke Raley’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 97-mph average last year has decreased to 88.7-mph.

Over the past week, Luke Raley’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14%.

Considering that flyball hitters have a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Hunter Brown and his 49% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in this matchup matching up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

Hunter Brown will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Hunter Brown’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (59.9 vs. 53% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Given the 0.46 difference between Hunter Brown’s 10.72 K/9 and his 10.27 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to perform worse the rest of the season.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Hunter Brown in this game.

Despite posting a .414 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cal Raleigh has had positive variance on his side given the .057 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .357.

Hunter Brown will hold the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today’s game.

Julio Rodriguez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 14% on the season to 7.4% over the past 14 days.

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Logan Gilbert will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today’s matchup.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

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