Astros vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Friday, May 1st

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HOU @ BOS

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Astros @ Red Sox Matchup Details

Teams : Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox

Date : Todays Game is on Friday, May 1st
Time : 01/05/26 19:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Houston Astros Game Today

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 venue in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Caleb Durbin pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.

,Caleb Durbin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

,In the last 7 days, Caleb Durbin’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.9-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph in recent games.

,Carlos Narvaez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

,Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

,Carlos Narvaez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last season’s 92.6-mph mark.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run ability.

,Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

,Hitting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today.

,Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Jarren Duran’s BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

,Jarren Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Burrows in today’s matchup.

,Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Carlos Narvaez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 13.8% to 20%.

,In the past 14 days, Carlos Narvaez’s 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Trevor Story has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Trevor Story will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Hitting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have the upper hand today.

,Marcelo Mayer has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Marcelo Mayer will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Caleb Durbin’s true offensive talent to be a .301, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .058 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .243 wOBA.

,Marcelo Mayer has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last 7 days.

,Caleb Durbin’s launch angle of late (6.8° over the last week) is considerably higher than his 3.5° seasonal mark.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

,The shallowest LF fences among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park.

,In terms of his home runs, Marcelo Mayer has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 14.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.2.

,Wilyer Abreu will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

,When it comes to his BABIP skill, Roman Anthony is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Roman Anthony is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Roman Anthony will hold the platoon advantage over Michael Burrows in today’s matchup.

,Roman Anthony hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jarren Duran ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Roman Anthony ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Roman Anthony will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story, Willson Contreras).

,Mike Burrows has used his four-seam fastball 13.1% less often this season (26%) than he did last season (39.1%).

,Mike Burrows has notched a 12.9% Swinging Strike rate this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

,Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Willson Contreras has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last year’s 95.8-mph EV.

,Over the last two weeks, Trevor Story’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 96-mph recently.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Trevor Story’s true offensive talent to be a .309, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .076 disparity between that mark and his actual .233 wOBA.

Negatives with the Boston Red Sox Game Today

When it comes to his home run ability, Caleb Durbin ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Fenway Park has the 2nd-tallest fence height (on average) among all parks.

,Fenway Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense.

,Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 4th-least humidity on the slate at 35%.

,Carlos Narvaez’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

,In the last two weeks, Wilyer Abreu’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 5.7%.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Wilyer Abreu’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 94 mph to 91.9 mph.

,Jarren Duran’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 91.8-mph EV last year has decreased to 89.4-mph.

,Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 44.3% to 35.5%.

,Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, going from 35.5% on the season to 30% over the last two weeks.

,The #12 park in MLB for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

,Hitting from the same side that Michael Burrows throws from, Trevor Story will have a disadvantage today.

,Trevor Story has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 9.9% rate last season has fallen to 3.9% this season.

,Trevor Story’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased lately, going from 38.2% on the season to 31% over the last two weeks.

,Marcelo Mayer is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

,Marcelo Mayer’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 83.4-mph over the last 14 days.

,Caleb Durbin’s BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Michael Burrows will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Caleb Durbin today.

,Marcelo Mayer’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 23.5% on the season to 9.1% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Batting from the same side that Michael Burrows throws from, Willson Contreras meets a tough challenge today.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Willson Contreras’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 98.6 mph to 96.5 mph.

,Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, decreasing from 41.7% on the season to 30.4% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 12th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs.

,Michael Burrows will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez in today’s matchup.

,Roman Anthony has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Roman Anthony’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.7%.

,Wilyer Abreu has been lucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .258 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .230 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Fenway Park grades out as the #24 stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mike Burrows today.

,Mike Burrows has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 9.38 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.62 — a 0.76 K/9 difference.

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