Phillies @ Marlins Matchup Details

Positives for the Philadelphia Phillies Game Today

Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

,The 5th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.

,The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 12° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Agustin Ramirez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Over the past week, Agustin Ramirez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 96.7-mph in recent games.

,When it comes to his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Otto Lopez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Otto Lopez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

,Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

,Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.6) implies that Adolis Garcia has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his 20.0 actual HR/600.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 9th-best batter in the majors when estimating his batting average skill.

,Trea Turner is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

,Trea Turner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Trea Turner’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 16.1% on the season to 31.6% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Rafael Marchan hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Rafael Marchan’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, rising from 34.5% on the season to 62.5% in the last 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Connor Norby will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Connor Norby has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 94.8-mph.

,Connor Norby’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 18.3% to 21.4%.

,When it comes to his BABIP ability, Justin Crawford is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Justin Crawford will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Hitters such as Justin Crawford with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Eury Perez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

,In the last 7 days, Justin Crawford’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15%.

,Given Zack Wheeler’s large platoon split, Graham Pauley will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Graham Pauley will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,In the last 7 days, Graham Pauley’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.5%.

,When it comes to his BABIP skill, Owen Caissie is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Owen Caissie will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today… and even better, Wheeler has a large platoon split.

,Owen Caissie hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Owen Caissie will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,Alec Bohm hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Alec Bohm has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 93.4-mph.

,Alec Bohm’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 43% on the season to 57.9% in the past week.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the majors.

,Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

,Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Eury Perez in today’s game.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 95th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .376.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Eury Perez in the 91st percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher metrics across the board, and Eury Perez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,In his last outing, Eury Perez was in good form and posted 8 strikeouts.

,Eury Perez’s 97.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 97th percentile among all SPs.

,Bryce Harper projects as the 10th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.

,Bryce Harper will have the handedness advantage against Eury Perez in today’s game.

,Bryce Harper has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 95.5-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Because of Zack Wheeler’s large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Stowers will hold that advantage today.

,Brandon Marsh is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Brandon Marsh will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today’s game.

,Brandon Marsh has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.

,Since the start of last season, Brandon Marsh has an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, which is among the best in MLB at the 81st percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

,Bryson Stott will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez today.

,Bryson Stott has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.2-mph average to last year’s 87.6-mph average.

,Bryson Stott’s launch angle recently (22.2° over the past week) is considerably better than his 11.7° seasonal angle.

,When assessing his overall offensive skill, Otto Lopez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as MLB’s 3rd-best home run hitter.

,Kyle Schwarber’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 17.6% to 22%.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Trea Turner ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Trea Turner has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 89.1-mph mark.

,When estimating his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jakob Marsee is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

,Jakob Marsee will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today’s game… and even better, Wheeler has a large platoon split.

,Jakob Marsee will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

,Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.289) may lead us to conclude that Jakob Marsee has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .253 actual batting average.

,Zack Wheeler projects as the 6th-best SP in the majors right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Compared to the average hurler, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an extra 7.8 adjusted pitches each outing.

,The 5th-worst projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Miami Marlins.

,The Miami Marlins have been the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles LoanDepot Park as the 3rd-worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for home runs.

,Alec Bohm has been unlucky this year, putting up a .193 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .126 disparity.

,Xavier Edwards is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Zack Wheeler) in this game.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Xavier Edwards will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Xavier Edwards has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.7% seasonal rate to 11.4% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Eury Perez’s overall pitching talent grades out in the 79th percentile among all SPs in the majors right now.

,Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in MLB in this game.

,When assessing his strikeout talent, Zack Wheeler projects as the 11th-best SP in Major League Baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Owen Caissie).

,Among all starters, Zack Wheeler’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.

,Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.1) implies that Jakob Marsee has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his 10.0 actual HR/600.

,Bryson Stott has been unlucky this year, compiling a .243 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .072 disparity.

,When it comes to his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.200) may lead us to conclude that Rafael Marchan has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .178 actual batting average.

,When assessing his batting average talent, Xavier Edwards is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the Miami Marlins Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the 3rd-worst stadium in MLB for righty home runs.

,LoanDepot Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense.

,Considering Zack Wheeler’s large platoon split, Agustin Ramirez will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today.

,The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 4th-strongest among all the teams playing today.

,Agustin Ramirez’s launch angle in recent games (5.2° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit worse than his 8.8° seasonal figure.

,Because of Zack Wheeler’s large platoon split, Otto Lopez will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

,Over the past 7 days, Otto Lopez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11% down to 0%.

,Batting from the same side that Eury Perez throws from, Adolis Garcia meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,In today’s matchup, Adolis Garcia is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.9% rate (82nd percentile).

,Adolis Garcia will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,The #13 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.

,Eury Perez will have the handedness advantage against Trea Turner today.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner in today’s game.

,Trea Turner’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 91.8-mph EV last season has fallen to 89.3-mph.

,Rafael Marchan’s BABIP skill is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Rafael Marchan is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

,The #3 venue in MLB for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.

,The switch-hitting Rafael Marchan will bat from his bad side (0) today against Eury Perez,Connor Norby is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

,Given Zack Wheeler’s large platoon split, Connor Norby will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.

,In the past week, Connor Norby’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 21.4%.

,Justin Crawford is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

,11% of the time that Justin Crawford has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,In today’s matchup, Justin Crawford is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.3% rate (77th percentile).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Marchan in the 6th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Graham Pauley in the 6th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Graham Pauley is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

,31% of the time that Graham Pauley has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,Owen Caissie is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

,Owen Caissie has been pinch hit for 21% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles LoanDepot Park as the 13th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average.

,Alec Bohm is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Eury Perez will hold the platoon advantage over Alec Bohm in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alec Bohm in today’s game.

,Graham Pauley pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Kyle Schwarber will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Kyle Schwarber has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 20.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 6.3% in the past week’s worth of games.

,The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Eury Perez in this game.

,Eury Perez’s high usage rate of his fastball (53.8% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

,From last season to this one, Agustin Ramirez’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 11.9% to 8%.

,Bryce Harper has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bryce Harper in today’s game.

,Kyle Stowers pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 79th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Kyle Stowers has had some very good luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .287 mark is considerably higher than his .272 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Today, Brandon Marsh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.4% rate (89th percentile).

,Brandon Marsh will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Brandon Marsh’s 15% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

,Bryson Stott is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Bryson Stott has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

,Bryson Stott has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

,Otto Lopez’s launch angle recently (-8.8° in the past week) is considerably lower than his 5.5° seasonal angle.

,Over the last two weeks, Owen Caissie’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.6% down to 0%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Justin Crawford in the 5th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,The 4th-deepest RF dimensions in the majors are found in LoanDepot Park.

,Jakob Marsee has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 8.1% rate last year has dropped off to 2.6% this season.

,Zack Wheeler will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Zack Wheeler’s high usage rate of his fastball (58% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

,Zack Wheeler has put up a .268 BABIP since the start of last season, making him one of the luckiest hurlers in Major League Baseball on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 1st percentile when assessing his home run skill.

,Xavier Edwards has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.

,Xavier Edwards has been lucky this year, posting a .391 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .080 disparity.

,It may be best to expect better numbers for the Philadelphia Phillies offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

,With a 5.11 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the things most within a pitcher’s control), Eury Perez places in the 24th percentile.

,Zack Wheeler has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling an 11.70 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.41 — a 1.29 K/9 disparity.

,Jakob Marsee’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 17.4% to 9%.

,Brandon Marsh’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 54.2% on the season to 45% in the past 7 days.

,As it relates to his home runs, Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 28.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.2.

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