Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Dodgers Matchup Today

The weather report calls for the 5th-most favorable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Ben Casparius will hold the platoon advantage against 7 opposing hitters today.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Ben Casparius will hold that advantage today.

Ben Casparius’s 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 90th percentile out of all starters.

Out of all SPs, Ben Casparius’s fastball spin rate of 2432 rpm grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith as the 7th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Cam Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

The #1 park in baseball for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.

The 9th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Dodger Stadium.

Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.

Dodger Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the league for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith in the 76th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the best ballpark in the game for left-handed home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 7th-best venue in the game for left-handed batting average.

Shohei Ohtani will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Despite posting a .285 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has experienced some negative variance given the .042 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

Christian Walker’s 17.8° launch angle (an advanced metric to assess a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in MLB: 84th percentile.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.

Victor Caratini hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

Over the last 14 days, Victor Caratini has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 9.5% to 26.1%.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Isaac Paredes, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jose Altuve ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Tallying 92 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Lance McCullers Jr. falls in the 79th percentile.

Lance McCullers Jr.’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (73% this year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

Lance McCullers Jr. has notched a 24.6% strikeout rate this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Lance McCullers Jr. is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all major league parks — today.

Lance McCullers Jr. was firing on all cylinders in his last start and gave up 0 ER.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Mookie Betts usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Smith in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Will Smith generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Will Smith will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Michael Conforto will have an edge in today’s game.

Michael Conforto will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 78th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Michael Conforto has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 41° angle in the last week.

Mauricio Dubon’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mauricio Dubon has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 90.4-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 88.1-mph.

Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 12.1% to 19.5%.

Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 19.5% on the season to 36% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Tommy Edman will hold that advantage today.

Tommy Edman has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .244 rate is considerably lower than his .286 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 20th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Teoscar Hernandez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

When estimating his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 15th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Freddie Freeman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Freddie Freeman will have an edge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Miguel Rojas will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

This season, Miguel Rojas has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 89 mph compared to last year’s 86.6 mph mark.

Utilizing Statcast data, Miguel Rojas grades out in the 83rd percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .271.

By putting up a 1.63 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Miguel Rojas has shown impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 89th percentile.

Jake Meyers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Jake Meyers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

Jake Meyers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 91.9-mph.

Jake Meyers’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Andy Pages has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Andy Pages are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..

Cooper Hummel has displayed some good exit velocity indicators lately, averaging 99.9-mph on his flyballs over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Yainer Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Yainer Diaz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.7-mph EV.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Dodgers

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Casparius to throw 78 pitches today (least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Projected catcher Will Smith profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Dodger Stadium profiles as the #23 park in the league for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ben Casparius will hold the platoon advantage over Cam Smith today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cam Smith in today’s matchup.

Cam Smith has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph dropping to 88.2-mph over the past week.

Cam Smith has been lucky this year, compiling a .344 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .320 — a .024 difference.

Shohei Ohtani’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 42.2% on the season to 15.4% in the last two weeks.

Shohei Ohtani has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .418 rate is inflated compared to his .384 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Ben Casparius will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christian Walker today.

Christian Walker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Over the past two weeks, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 6.5%.

Christian Walker’s BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Victor Caratini in today’s game.

Victor Caratini has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 85.6-mph over the last 14 days.

By putting up a .268 BABIP this year, Victor Caratini is ranked in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 3rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Ben Casparius will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Isaac Paredes in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball hitters like Isaac Paredes generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Casparius.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Isaac Paredes today.

Over the last 14 days, Isaac Paredes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 90.2 mph to 81.9 mph.

Hitting from the same side that Ben Casparius throws from, Jose Altuve will not have the upper hand today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Jose Altuve has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.

Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 84.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 81.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 20.3% underlying K%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher today) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Lance McCullers Jr. (47.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Los Angeles’s projected offense.

Lance McCullers Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.

Given the 2.23 deviation between Lance McCullers Jr.’s 6.61 ERA and his 4.38 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to positively regress in the future.

Lance McCullers Jr. will have the handedness advantage over Mookie Betts in today’s matchup.

Mookie Betts’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 90.8-mph seasonal average has dropped to 87.1-mph over the last 14 days.

Mookie Betts’s launch angle this season (17.6°) is significantly worse than his 21.4° figure last season.

In the past week’s worth of games, Mookie Betts’s 7.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 20.3%.

In notching a .250 BABIP this year, Mookie Betts finds himself in the 10th percentile.

Will Smith is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Lance McCullers Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Will Smith in today’s game.

Will Smith’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (16.8°) is considerably lower than his 21.3° mark last year.

In the last 7 days, Will Smith’s 10% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 48.9%.

Despite posting a .415 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Will Smith has had some very good luck given the .053 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .362.

Michael Conforto’s BABIP skill is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Michael Conforto is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

20% of the time that Michael Conforto has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

Michael Conforto has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 9.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week.

Michael Conforto has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the past 7 days.

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the same side that Ben Casparius throws from, Mauricio Dubon will be in a tough position today.

In today’s matchup, Mauricio Dubon is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.6% rate (93rd percentile).

Mauricio Dubon will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home run ability, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tommy Edman is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Tommy Edman will bat from his bad side against Lance McCullers Jr. in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.

Over the last two weeks, Tommy Edman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 89.9 mph to 83.1 mph.

Batting from the same side that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Teoscar Hernandez has a tough challenge today.

Teoscar Hernandez has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.

Over the past 7 days, Teoscar Hernandez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%.

Teoscar Hernandez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, going from 16.2% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) provides evidence that Freddie Freeman has been very fortunate this year with his .375 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 18th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Miguel Rojas is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

32% of the time that Miguel Rojas has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Lance McCullers Jr. will have the handedness advantage over Miguel Rojas in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Ben Casparius will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Meyers in today’s game.

Jake Meyers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.

Jake Meyers’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (8.1°) is significantly worse than his 12.5° figure last season.

Checking in at the 10th percentile for power, Jake Meyers has hit 5.1 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.284) provides evidence that Jake Meyers has experienced some positive variance this year with his .302 actual batting average.

Batting from the same side that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Andy Pages will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Andy Pages has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.

As it relates to his home runs, Andy Pages has experienced some positive variance this year. His 30.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.7.

Andy Pages has shown bad plate discipline this year, ranking in the 12th percentile with a 4.64 K/BB rate.

Despite posting a .358 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Andy Pages has had some very good luck given the .024 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cooper Hummel in the 22nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Cooper Hummel is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

Cooper Hummel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cooper Hummel in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 20.3°, Cooper Hummel’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly of late (6.5° in the past 14 days).

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Ben Casparius throws from, Yainer Diaz will not have the upper hand today.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

In the last 14 days, Yainer Diaz’s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14%.

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