Royals @ Cardinals Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Kansas City Royals Series Game 3 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

,On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.

,In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.

,Jordan Walker has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek has a pitch-to-contact profile (20th percentile K%) — great news for Walker.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in today’s game.

,Nathan Church will have the handedness advantage against Stephen Kolek in today’s matchup.

,Nathan Church will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 10th-best ballpark in the league for lefty batting average.

,Michael Massey will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante today.

,Extreme flyball bats like Michael Massey tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

,Michael Massey has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 4% rate last year to 11.7% this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jac Caglianone in the 80th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

,Jac Caglianone will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante in today’s game.

,Jac Caglianone hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Ranking in the 87th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.52 ft/sec this year, Nathan Church is notably toolsy.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Pedro Pages will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Carter Jensen is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Carter Jensen will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Carter Jensen has recorded a .463 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 5th-best hitter in the game.

,Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Extreme flyball batters like Bobby Witt Jr. tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

,Posting a 1.67 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Isaac Collins has shown impressive plate discipline, placing in the 85th percentile.

,Isaac Collins has put up a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Wetherholt in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

,JJ Wetherholt will have the handedness advantage over Stephen Kolek today.

,Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage today.

,Victor Scott II will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

,Maikel Garcia hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

,Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage against Andre Pallante in today’s game.

,Vinnie Pasquantino’s launch angle this season (19.6°) is quite a bit higher than his 16.2° angle last year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,Busch Stadium profiles as the #10 park in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a good pitch framer.

,Andre Pallante will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats in all categories.

,Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has relied on his non-fastballs 6.7% more often this year (49.5%) than he did last year (42.8%).

,Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Gorman usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Carter Jensen ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the worst stadium in the game for home runs.

,Because groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball bats, Stephen Kolek and his 48.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today’s game going up against 3 opposing GB bats.

,Salvador Perez is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.

,Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

,Salvador Perez has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 17.1° mark is among the highest in the majors since the start of last season (89th percentile).

,Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an advantage today.

,Kyle Isbel has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.6-mph average to last year’s 85.7-mph figure.

,Kyle Isbel’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 36.9% to 44.7%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 3rd-best hitter in the league when it comes to his batting average skill.

,The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker).

,Stephen Kolek has gone to his change-up 7.4% more often this year (19.2%) than he did last year (11.8%).

,With a 0.41 disparity between Stephen Kolek’s 6.27 K/9 and his 6.68 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to positively regress the rest of the season.

,When estimating his home run ability, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When it comes to his home run talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Kansas City’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #6 overall.

,Maikel Garcia has notched a .346 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 80th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Kyle Isbel’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 10% to 15.8%.

,Jac Caglianone has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season’s 89.4-mph average.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals Series Game 3 Game Today

The #1 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

,Batting from the same side that Stephen Kolek throws from, Jordan Walker will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

,Out of all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.

,By putting up a .273 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jordan Walker has performed in the 8th percentile for offensive skills.

,Busch Stadium grades out as the #30 stadium in the league for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Alec Burleson’s launch angle this season (8.4°) is significantly worse than his 15.2° figure last year.

,Nathan Church is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Busch Stadium has the 2nd-deepest RF fences among all major league stadiums.

,Extreme flyball hitters like Nathan Church generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Nathan Church ranks in the 25th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .262.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 7th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Michael Massey is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

,Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 4th-best among every team playing today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Massey in today’s matchup.

,Jac Caglianone is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jac Caglianone today.

,In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jac Caglianone ranks in just the 2nd percentile with a 4.3° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the majors.

,Kansas City’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Nathan Church, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

,Stephen Kolek will have the handedness advantage against Ivan Herrera today.

,In today’s matchup, Ivan Herrera is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (84th percentile).

,Extreme groundball batters like Ivan Herrera generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 9th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Pedro Pages is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

,Stephen Kolek will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages today.

,Pedro Pages has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

,Carter Jensen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 78th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Carter Jensen will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,Hitting the ball to all fields is a key talent for batting average that Carter Jensen has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his checking in at the 21st percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.

,Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage over Bobby Witt Jr. today.

,Bobby Witt Jr. has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today’s matchup.

,Bobby Witt Jr. has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 8.6° figure is among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season (20th percentile).

,Isaac Collins is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

,The switch-hitting Isaac Collins will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Andre Pallante,In today’s matchup, Isaac Collins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (78th percentile).

,Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Isaac Collins in today’s matchup.

,JJ Wetherholt has notched a .255 BABIP this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Victor Scott II ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Victor Scott II is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

,Victor Scott II has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Extreme groundball bats like Victor Scott II tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

,Hitting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Maikel Garcia has a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Maikel Garcia in today’s game.

,Maikel Garcia’s 89.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 16th percentile this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 4th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,In today’s matchup, Vinnie Pasquantino is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.1% rate (94th percentile).

,Vinnie Pasquantino will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

,Hitting the ball to all fields is an important skill for batting average that Vinnie Pasquantino has struggled with this year, as evidenced by his grading out in the 12th percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.

,Ivan Herrera has struggled with his Barrel%; his 11.5% rate last year has fallen off to 6.2% this season.

,When estimating his home run talent, Masyn Winn ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Masyn Winn is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

,Homers are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all parks.

,Hitting from the same side that Stephen Kolek throws from, Masyn Winn has a tough challenge today.

,Maikel Garcia and his 4.7° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 4th percentile, among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Andre Pallante in the 12th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

,Busch Stadium profiles as the #29 venue in the majors for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Andre Pallante (57.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 GB hitters in Kansas City’s projected lineup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 7th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 14.1%.

,This season, there has been a decline in Nolan Gorman’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 25.08 ft/sec currently.

,Stephen Kolek has averaged 81.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 20th percentile.

,Stephen Kolek will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,Among all starting pitchers, Stephen Kolek’s fastball spin rate of 2184.9 rpm ranks in the 25th percentile since the start of last season.

,Using Statcast metrics, Michael Massey grades out in the 12th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .232.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 9th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Hitting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Salvador Perez faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Salvador Perez in today’s matchup.

,Andre Pallante has compiled a 1.84 K/BB rate this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile.

,Andre Pallante’s 22nd percentile BB% (10.2% this year) shows his weak control ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Isbel in the 6th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,Kyle Isbel is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

,Typically, batters like Kyle Isbel who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.

,When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Stephen Kolek in the 11th percentile among all SPs in MLB.

,This year, Salvador Perez’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 14.6% last year to just 9.4% this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 19th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,Grading out in the 5th percentile, Jac Caglianone has posted a .263 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

,Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has dropped to 84.3-mph.

,Posting a .271 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Vinnie Pasquantino is positioned in the 23rd percentile.

,By putting up a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Nolan Gorman finds himself in the 16th percentile for offensive skills.

,Nolan Gorman does not make a lot of hard contact. If you were to take the top 5% of his batted balls by exit velocity, their average (75.7 mph) rank him as one of baseball’s worst: in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

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