Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Royals vs Blue Jays Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Addison Barger in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Addison Barger is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for lefty home runs.

In MLB, Rogers Centre’s centerfield fences are the 10th-shallowest.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.9-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Addison Barger ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Addison Barger will hold the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo in today’s matchup.

Joey Loperfido has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Joey Loperfido will have an advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an edge in today’s game.

Daulton Varsho will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Daulton Varsho has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.4% rate last year to 17.6% this season.

When assessing his home run skill, Daulton Varsho ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Salvador Perez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.

In the last 7 days, Salvador Perez’s 53.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

The #3 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.

Seth Lugo has averaged 95.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has gone to his secondary offerings 6.5% more often this season (64%) than he did last season (57.5%).

The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward,It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

Chris Bassitt’s 90.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.8-mph decrease from last year’s 92.6-mph mark.

Chris Bassitt has averaged 94.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Chris Bassitt was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and notched 7 strikeouts.

Given Chris Bassitt’s large platoon split, Adam Frazier will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

Adam Frazier’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (15.5°) is significantly better than his 11.9° mark last year.

Adam Frazier’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (27.5° over the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 15.5° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Ty France will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ty France has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .299 mark is quite a bit lower than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Because of Chris Bassitt’s large platoon split, Mike Yastrzemski will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

Mike Yastrzemski has exhibited good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 75th percentile with a 1.82 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his home run skill, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler Heineman will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 8th-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his batting average ability.

Bo Bichette is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Bo Bichette will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Bo Bichette ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Using Statcast metrics, Ernie Clement grades out in the 80th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .273.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Jonathan India’s launch angle this season (16.8°) is significantly higher than his 13.3° figure last year.

Kyle Isbel will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt today… and even better, Bassitt has a large platoon split.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.373) suggests that Bobby Witt Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year with his .354 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Nathan Lukes is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Nathan Lukes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo in today’s game.

Maikel Garcia is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Maikel Garcia hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Maikel Garcia has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.5% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

In the last week, Maikel Garcia’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 102.5-mph recently.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Considering Chris Bassitt’s large platoon split, Vinnie Pasquantino will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

Vinnie Pasquantino has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.3% seasonal rate to 17.1% in the past 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Vinnie Pasquantino ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

John Rave will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today’s game… and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.

John Rave has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 100-mph in the last week.

John Rave has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .276 rate is deflated compared to his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Negative Match Player Stats with Royals vs Blue Jays Series Game 3

Among all major league parks, the 8th-highest fences are at Rogers Centre.

The weather report projects the 5th-best pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Addison Barger’s true offensive skill to be a .319, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .350 wOBA.

The #6 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.

Addison Barger has shown bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 25th percentile with a 3.43 K/BB rate.

In the last week, Joey Loperfido’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.

In the past 7 days, Joey Loperfido’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 89.1 mph to 82.6 mph.

Joey Loperfido’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 16.2% to 9.8%.

Joey Loperfido has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .301 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .258 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 3rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

When it comes to his batting average, Daulton Varsho has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .211 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .187.

When it comes to his home runs, Daulton Varsho has been lucky since the start of last season. His 25.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.0.

Daulton Varsho has put up a .278 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 15th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-worst ballpark in the league for right-handed BABIP.

Chris Bassitt will have the handedness advantage against Salvador Perez in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Bassitt’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Salvador Perez today.

Salvador Perez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph dropping to 85.9-mph in the past week.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.1% underlying K%.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Seth Lugo in today’s game.

Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).

Seth Lugo has recorded an 8.4% Swinging Strike% this year, checking in at the 14th percentile.

Rogers Centre grades out as the #5 park in the majors for home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Tyler Heineman (the Blue Jays’s expected catcher today) projects as a good pitch framer.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Chris Bassitt will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In his last GS, Chris Bassitt was firing on all cylinders and conceded 1 ER.

The Kansas City Royals (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate.

Chris Bassitt’s 2150-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 18th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Considering the 0.62 disparity between Chris Bassitt’s 8.85 K/9 and his 8.23 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to negatively regress in future games.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Adam Frazier ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Adam Frazier is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Adam Frazier will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

When assessing his home run ability, Adam Frazier ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ty France is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Seth Lugo throws from, Ty France will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Ty France has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Mike Yastrzemski will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Mike Yastrzemski’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

Tyler Heineman’s BABIP ability is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler Heineman is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Tyler Heineman will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Seth Lugo in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Heineman in the 12th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Seth Lugo will hold the platoon advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today.

Batting from the same side that Seth Lugo throws from, Bo Bichette meets a tough challenge today.

Bo Bichette has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 9.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 2% in the last 14 days.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Bo Bichette’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.3°.

When estimating his home run skill, Ernie Clement ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ernie Clement is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Seth Lugo throws from, Ernie Clement has a tough challenge today.

Ernie Clement’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 88.6-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.4-mph over the last 7 days.

Chris Bassitt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan India today… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Bassitt’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jonathan India in today’s game.

Jonathan India has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 85.9-mph in the last two weeks.

Kyle Isbel’s BABIP skill is projected in the 13th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Isbel is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Isbel in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Isbel in the 14th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Chris Bassitt will hold the platoon advantage over Bobby Witt Jr. in today’s game… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Bassitt’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today’s game.

Bobby Witt Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 3.4% in the past 14 days.

Nathan Lukes’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 87.8-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 84.5-mph in the last two weeks.

In the past two weeks, Nathan Lukes’s 17.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.7%.

In terms of his home runs, Nathan Lukes has had positive variance on his side this year. His 19.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.1.

When estimating his home run skill, Nathan Lukes ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Checking in at the 8th percentile, Nathan Lukes sits with a .257 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 17th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Chris Bassitt will have the handedness advantage over Maikel Garcia in today’s game… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Bassitt’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Maikel Garcia in today’s game.

Despite posting a .358 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Maikel Garcia has had positive variance on his side given the .040 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 10th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Vinnie Pasquantino will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects John Rave in the 20th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

John Rave is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, John Rave has been pulled from the game early 28% of the time.

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