Todays Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Reds vs Guardians Matchup Today

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

The #5 venue in the game for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.

Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

Given Jakob Junis’s large platoon split, Bo Naylor will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Out of every team today, the worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Andres Gimenez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jakob Junis in today’s matchup… and even better, Junis has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Lane Thomas is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Lane Thomas pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

The #5 field in the league for boosting BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.

Angel Martinez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Angel Martinez pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Ty France is penciled in 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Among all parks, Progressive Field’s left field fences are the 2nd-shallowest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tanner Bibee in the 85th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

Tanner Bibee has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as a good pitch framer.

Tanner Bibee will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats in all categories.

When it comes to his home run talent, Bo Naylor ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Bo Naylor will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Brayan Rocchio will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Over the past 7 days, Noelvi Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.9-mph in recent games.

Noelvi Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 41.7% on the season to 62.5% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Andres Gimenez will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Andres Gimenez has been unlucky this year. His .283 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .310.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Jake Fraley will have an edge today.

Jake Fraley pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, TJ Friedl will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

TJ Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Kyle Manzardo will have the handedness advantage against Jakob Junis in today’s game… and moreover, Junis has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in Major League Baseball when estimating his BABIP skill.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Tanner Bibee.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Ty France has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 93.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 10th-best field in the majors for base hits.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.7° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#1 overall).

In the last week’s worth of games, Jake Fraley’s 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jhonkensy Noel in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Jhonkensy Noel pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Santiago Espinal’s launch angle this year (14.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 11.3° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Josh Naylor is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Given Jakob Junis’s large platoon split, Josh Naylor will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jonathan India ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Manzardo will hold that advantage today.

Santiago Espinal’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Angel Martinez will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Naylor will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jakob Junis must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 58.6% of the time, placing in the 76th percentile.

Jakob Junis has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 6.97 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.89 — a 0.92 K/9 disparity.

Brayan Rocchio’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (19° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 11.5° seasonal angle.

Jhonkensy Noel will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Noelvi Marte’s true offensive talent to be a .288, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .040 disparity between that figure and his actual .248 wOBA.

Noelvi Marte’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to measure power) has been 111.5 mph this year, placing in the 78th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Over the past 7 days, Elly De La Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.7% down to 7.1%.

In the past 14 days, Jonathan India has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 21.6° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.6°.

Negative Match Player Stats with Reds vs Guardians

Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.

From last season to this one, Jose Ramirez’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 44.3% to 39%.

In terms of his batting average, Jose Ramirez has been lucky this year. His .274 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .250.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Naylor in the 7th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Bo Naylor is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

This year, Bo Naylor has been pulled from the game early in 15% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

Bo Naylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

In the majors, Progressive Field’s CF dimensions are the 7th-deepest.

Andres Gimenez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 84.1-mph over the last week.

Andres Gimenez’s launch angle this season (8.8°) is significantly lower than his 12.9° figure last year.

Progressive Field ranks as the #24 stadium in the league for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Because of Jakob Junis’s large platoon split, Lane Thomas will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game.

Lane Thomas’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 94.8-mph average last season has dropped off to 89.9-mph.

Hitting from the same side that Tanner Bibee throws from, Tyler Stephenson has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Tyler Stephenson in today’s matchup.

Tyler Stephenson has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .342 mark is a fair amount higher than his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his home run ability, Angel Martinez ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The switch-hitting Angel Martinez will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Jakob Junis… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Junis’s large platoon split.

In the past 14 days, Angel Martinez’s 4.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.4%.

Angel Martinez has been cold recently, notching a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the last 14 days.

Tanner Bibee will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ty France in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ty France in today’s game.

Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2278 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2363 rpm).

Given the 0.34 discrepancy between Tanner Bibee’s 9.72 K/9 and his 9.38 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and should perform worse going forward.

Progressive Field profiles as the #24 field in baseball for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his home run ability, Brayan Rocchio ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brayan Rocchio is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

This year, Brayan Rocchio has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Noelvi Marte is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Tanner Bibee throws from, Noelvi Marte will not have the upper hand today.

Noelvi Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 17th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.6) provides evidence that Jose Ramirez has been lucky this year with his 33.3 actual HR/600.

When assessing his home run talent, Jake Fraley ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Jake Fraley has been pulled from the game early 15% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

TJ Friedl will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, TJ Friedl’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.3%.

TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 24.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 14.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Manzardo in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Kyle Manzardo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

In today’s matchup, Kyle Manzardo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38% rate (76th percentile).

Kyle Manzardo’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, going from 39.4% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.

Elly De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Despite posting a .351 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has had positive variance on his side given the .020 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Tanner Bibee in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall pitching abilities.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games, Jhonkensy Noel is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Jhonkensy Noel has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 13% of the time.

Because of Jakob Junis’s large platoon split, Jhonkensy Noel will be at a tremendous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s matchup.

Over the past 14 days, Jhonkensy Noel’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.6% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 7th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Tanner Bibee throws from, Santiago Espinal will not have the upper hand today.

Bo Naylor has posted a .197 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In terms of his batting average, Kyle Manzardo has had some very good luck this year. His .246 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.

Josh Naylor’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 39.9% on the season to 16.7% over the past week.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.0) implies that Josh Naylor has been lucky this year with his 30.1 actual HR/600.

Grading out in the 3rd percentile, Josh Naylor sits with a .240 BABIP this year.

Batting from the same side that Tanner Bibee throws from, Jonathan India encounters a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jonathan India in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Jonathan India’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 2.9%.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Noelvi Marte in today’s game.

TJ Friedl’s BABIP ability is projected in the 6th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Placing in the 11th percentile, TJ Friedl has posted a .218 batting average this year.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 21.6°, Kyle Manzardo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (16.8°) in the last 14 days.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Santiago Espinal in today’s game.

Santiago Espinal’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 87.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 82.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Josh Naylor’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, going from 14% on the season to 7.7% over the last 14 days.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Fraley in today’s matchup.

Jake Fraley’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 83.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 73.8-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jhonkensy Noel in the 25th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jakob Junis to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Given his large platoon split, Jakob Junis encounters a tough challenge squaring off against 7 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in this outing.

Playing on the road typically lessens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jakob Junis in today’s game.

The Cleveland Guardians have been the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward, Jakob Junis was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and gave up 1 ER.

Jakob Junis has posted a 3.60 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.8°, Andres Gimenez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.6°) in the past two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brayan Rocchio ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The switch-hitting Brayan Rocchio will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Jakob Junis… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Junis’s large platoon split.

Jonathan India’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 89.3-mph EV last season has fallen off to 87.2-mph.

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