Rays vs Red Sox match player stats | 2026 Thursday, May 7th

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TB @ BOS

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Rays @ Red Sox Matchup Details

Teams : Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Date : Todays Game is on Thursday, May 7th
Time : 07/05/26 19:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Tampa Bay Rays Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 75th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.

,Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

,Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

,Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,Jonny DeLuca has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in the league.

,Batting from the opposite that Jake Bennett throws from, Jonny DeLuca will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Jonny DeLuca has recorded a .438 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

,Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Jake Bennett throws from, Junior Caminero will have an advantage today.

,Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,In the last 14 days, Junior Caminero’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.6-mph over the course of the season to 108-mph lately.

,Taylor Walls has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Taylor Walls’s launch angle this year (20.1°) is considerably better than his 14.9° angle last year.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 20.1°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 36° mark in the last week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

,Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Among all stadiums, Fenway Park’s right field fences are the shallowest.

,Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Jesse Scholtens today.

,When estimating his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 8th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

,Yandy Diaz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Bennett in today’s game.

,Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Carlos Narvaez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Carlos Narvaez will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Carlos Narvaez has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.8% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks.

,Carlos Narvaez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 92.6-mph EV.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 13.6°, Carlos Narvaez has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 20.3° angle over the past 14 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Batting from the opposite that Jesse Scholtens throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.

,Ben Williamson will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Bennett in today’s game.

,Ben Williamson has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

,Ben Williamson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 94.7-mph in the last 7 days.

,Ben Williamson’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 42.9% to 54.3%.

,Masataka Yoshida will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.9) may lead us to conclude that Masataka Yoshida has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 8.9 actual HR/600.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 9.2°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.6° figure in the past week.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.6) may lead us to conclude that Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his 15.1 actual HR/600.

,Hitting from the opposite that Jake Bennett throws from, Nick Fortes will have an edge today.

,Nick Fortes pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.

,Ryan Vilade is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Ryan Vilade will have the handedness advantage against Jake Bennett today.

,Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Ryan Vilade’s quickness has increased this season. His 27.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.35 ft/sec now.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty batting average.

,Hitting from the opposite that Jesse Scholtens throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Marcelo Mayer has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.

,Marcelo Mayer will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Jonathan Aranda pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Jonathan Aranda’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 48.9% on the season to 55.6% in the last 14 days.

,When it comes to his home runs, Marcelo Mayer has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 12.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.2.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.

,Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Caleb Durbin pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Despite posting a .237 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Caleb Durbin has had some very poor luck given the .061 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.

,Caleb Durbin has exhibited strong plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile with a 1.57 K/BB rate.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for batting average.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,Willson Contreras is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

,Jonny DeLuca has posted a .297 batting average since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile.

,As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

,Batting from the opposite that Jesse Scholtens throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today’s game.

,Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

,Ben Williamson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 11.2% to 20%.

,In the past 7 days, Ben Williamson’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20%.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.234) suggests that Taylor Walls has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .215 actual batting average.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 7th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Chandler Simpson has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,This season, Chandler Simpson has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 85.2 mph compared to last year’s 81.1 mph mark.

,Chandler Simpson has put up a .313 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage today.

,Despite posting a .239 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trevor Story has suffered from bad luck given the .068 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

,Checking in at the 93rd percentile, Chandler Simpson sits with a .315 batting average this year.

,The Boston Red Sox have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future,Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Griffin Jax today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,Yandy Diaz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph mark.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Williamson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Jonathan Aranda’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 14.8% to 18.9%.

,Posting a .369 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jonathan Aranda is ranked in the 93rd percentile for offensive skills.

,Wilyer Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jarren Duran ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Jake Bennett (46.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Jake Bennett will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Griffin Jax projects as the 16th-best pitcher in the league right now when it comes to his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willson Contreras, Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez).

,Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,In the last 7 days, Willson Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 18.5% up to 26.7%.

Negatives with the Boston Red Sox Game Today

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

,In MLB, the 2nd-tallest fence height (on average) are at Fenway Park.

,Fenway Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.

,According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 7th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.

,Jesse Scholtens will hold the platoon advantage over Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonny DeLuca in the 20th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jonny DeLuca in today’s game.

,Junior Caminero will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 11.9°, Junior Caminero has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.4°) over the past 14 days.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Taylor Walls ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Taylor Walls is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Masataka Yoshida has struggled with his Barrel%; his 6.7% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.

,From last season to this one, Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 46.4% to 40.4%.

,Masataka Yoshida has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a core talent for batting average), grading out in the 16th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score since the start of last season.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Yandy Diaz usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jake Bennett.

,Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Hitting from the same side that Jesse Scholtens throws from, Carlos Narvaez faces a tough challenge today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Williamson in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,Ben Williamson is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

,This year, Ben Williamson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 13% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.

,When assessing his home run skill, Masataka Yoshida ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Masataka Yoshida is in the 1st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (8.8% rate since the start of last season).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 9th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Nick Fortes is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

,When starting against a southpaw this year, Nick Fortes has been pinch hit for 17% of the time.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Vilade in the 20th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,54% of the time that Ryan Vilade has started against a southpaw this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 21st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Nick Fortes’s BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,Marcelo Mayer is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

,This year, Marcelo Mayer has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 26% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Batting from the same side that Jake Bennett throws from, Jonathan Aranda faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jonathan Aranda in today’s matchup.

,Jesse Scholtens will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Story in today’s matchup.

,Trevor Story’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 93.2-mph EV last season has fallen to 88.6-mph.

,When assessing his home run ability, Caleb Durbin ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Caleb Durbin is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

,The 3rd-worst projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

,The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future,In the last week, Marcelo Mayer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.

,Hitting from the same side that Jesse Scholtens throws from, Willson Contreras will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of the day).

,In the last week, Wilyer Abreu’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11% down to 0%.

,Jonny DeLuca has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past two weeks.

,Jonny DeLuca’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 86.2-mph in the past two weeks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 6th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,Jake Bennett will hold the platoon advantage against Chandler Simpson in today’s game.

,Typically, hitters like Chandler Simpson who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jake Bennett.

,Trevor Story has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 9.9% rate last year has dropped off to 3.3% this season.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Chandler Simpson ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Wilyer Abreu’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 82.5-mph over the last 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 10th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Batting from the same side that Jesse Scholtens throws from, Caleb Durbin will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Griffin Jax’s overall pitching talent is in the 92nd percentile among all starters in MLB currently.

,Griffin Jax has posted a 3.16 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the things a pitcher can most influence) since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile.

,Boston Red Sox batters jointly place 23rd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

,Extreme flyball batters like Ben Williamson are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Bennett.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bennett to throw 77 pitches today (3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jake Bennett in the 19th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 20% underlying K%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-worst field in baseball for strikeouts.

,In the past 7 days, Trevor Story’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 88.6 mph to 78.5 mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Griffin Jax to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.

,Ceddanne Rafaela has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.

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