Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Rays vs Astros Series Game 4 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Taj Bradley in the 75th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

The #7 park in the majors for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

In his last GS, Taj Bradley was in good form and accumulated 7 strikeouts.

Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Taj Bradley has tallied 17 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

The league’s 3rd-tallest fences can be found at Minute Maid Park.

Taj Bradley was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.

Taj Bradley has been unlucky this year, posting a 4.38 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.28 — a 0.1 deviation.

Junior Caminero’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

In terms of power, Junior Caminero grades out in the 76th percentile, having hit 25.5 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Cam Smith will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Cam Smith has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.4% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 14 days.

Cam Smith has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 101.3-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 86.4-mph EV.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Christian Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Christian Walker has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 36.4% in the last two weeks.

Christian Walker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 99.8-mph in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Extreme groundball hitters like Victor Caratini generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Victor Caratini has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past two weeks.

Victor Caratini has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 106.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 91.5-mph.

Placing in the 79th percentile, Victor Caratini has posted a .335 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Isaac Paredes’s 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.1%.

Based on Statcast data, Isaac Paredes is in the 77th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .269.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Jose Altuve has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph to 87.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jose Altuve ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 17th-best batter in baseball when it comes to his batting average talent.

Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last year’s 91.9-mph EV.

Yandy Diaz has been unlucky this year, putting up a .288 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .348 — a .060 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today’s matchup.

Brandon Lowe has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 11.8% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past 14 days.

Brandon Lowe has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season’s 89.8-mph EV.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Josh Lowe is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Josh Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today’s matchup.

Josh Lowe has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Josh Lowe has hit one of the hardest balls in Major League Baseball over the past two weeks — 109.2-mph — which is a good proxy for recent form and raw power.

In terms of his home runs, Josh Lowe has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 16.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.6.

Jeremy Pena’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Extreme flyball bats like Jeremy Pena usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Taj Bradley.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 46.7% on the season to 55.6% in the past 14 days.

Jake Meyers has posted a .297 batting average this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Jake Meyers’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (17.3° in the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 8.6° seasonal mark.

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Hunter Brown in the 94th percentile among all starters in MLB.

Hunter Brown has averaged 95.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Victor Caratini (the Astros’s expected catcher today) is considered to be a good pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Brown as the 14th-best starting pitcher in MLB currently.

Because flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball batters, Hunter Brown and his 49.4% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s outing matching up with 3 opposing FB batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Jonathan Aranda’s 93.1-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the league since the start of last season: 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jake Mangum has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Ranking in the 90th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.91 ft/sec this year, Jake Mangum is quite quick.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Kameron Misner will have the upper hand today.

Kameron Misner has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 6.1% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the past two weeks.

Kameron Misner has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal figure of 91.4-mph.

Negative Match Player Stats with Rays vs Astros Series Game 4

Nic Lentz profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

Because of his reverse platoon split, Taj Bradley will be in a tough position facing 8 hitters in the projected lineup of the same handedness today.

Considering that groundball hitters have a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Taj Bradley and his 34.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in this game matching up with 2 opposing GB bats.

Taj Bradley will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Taj Bradley’s change-up utilization has fallen by 5.3% from last season to this one (26.8% to 21.5%) .

The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park.

Houston’s 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #30 overall.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Junior Caminero encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball bats like Junior Caminero usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Junior Caminero will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks, Junior Caminero’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 0%.

Cam Smith is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

Taj Bradley will have the handedness advantage over Cam Smith in today’s game.

Cam Smith has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will be challenged by the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Cam Smith’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.2%.

Christian Walker’s BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Christian Walker has a tough challenge today.

Christian Walker has shown bad plate discipline this year, placing in the 17th percentile with a 4.12 K/BB rate.

Grading out in the 19th percentile, Christian Walker has put up a .215 batting average this year.

Victor Caratini’s BABIP talent is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Victor Caratini’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Batting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Isaac Paredes will not have the upper hand today.

Extreme flyball bats like Isaac Paredes tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.

Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 85.4-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 79.1-mph in the last 14 days.

Batting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Jose Altuve encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jose Altuve’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 15.7% to 8.9%.

Jose Altuve’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 8.9% on the season to 0% over the past 14 days.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Altuve has had some very good luck this year. His .312 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .268.

Hunter Brown will have the handedness advantage over Yandy Diaz in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Yandy Diaz in today’s matchup.

Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.0) may lead us to conclude that Brandon Lowe has been lucky this year with his 31.7 actual HR/600.

Brandon Lowe has exhibited poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 24th percentile with a 3.63 K/BB rate.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Josh Lowe in today’s matchup.

Batting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Jeremy Pena meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Jeremy Pena has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 14 days.

Over the last 14 days, Jeremy Pena’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 88.6 mph to 80.5 mph.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 10.3% on the season to 0% over the last two weeks.

Jake Meyers is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Jake Meyers faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 85.4-mph in the last two weeks.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has used his secondary offerings 6.3% less often this year (40.7%) than he did last year (47%).

Hunter Brown has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 10.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.94 — a 0.57 K/9 deviation.

Given the 1.57 gap between Hunter Brown’s 2.00 ERA and his 3.57 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and ought to see worse results the rest of the season.

Hunter Brown will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his metrics across the board.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jonathan Aranda in today’s game.

In the last two weeks, Jonathan Aranda’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.5% down to 0%.

In the last two weeks, Jonathan Aranda’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.6%.

Jonathan Aranda has been lucky this year, notching a .390 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .057 difference.

Taj Bradley will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today’s matchup.

Yainer Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, going from 45.2% on the season to 22.2% over the past 14 days.

Yainer Diaz has compiled a .279 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 20th percentile.

In terms of plate discipline, Yainer Diaz’s ability is quite bad, posting a 4.51 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 13th percentile.

When estimating his home run talent, Jake Mangum ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Mangum is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

The switch-hitting Jake Mangum will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Hunter Brown,Extreme flyball bats like Jake Mangum tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Mangum in today’s matchup.

Kameron Misner’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kameron Misner is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kameron Misner in today’s game.

Kameron Misner’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, falling from 14.6% on the season to 0% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kameron Misner in the 14th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

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