Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Twins vs Mariners Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

T-Mobile Park profiles as the #4 ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Luis Castillo… and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.

Brooks Lee pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Brooks Lee has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 4.1% rate last season to 10.9% this year.

Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.

Batting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Cole Young will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Cole Young is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

Cole Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.

Benjamin Williamson has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Batters such as Benjamin Williamson with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Paddack who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Benjamin Williamson will hold that advantage today.

In the past 14 days, Benjamin Williamson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 85.8-mph over the course of the season to 95.1-mph in recent games.

Benjamin Williamson’s BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the 4th-best ballpark in MLB for righty home runs.

Luis Castillo has averaged 96 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.

It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Pitchers Umpire (Bill Miller) calling pitches today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-worst venue in MLB for batting average.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Minnesota Twins with a 24.8% underlying K%.

The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Willi Castro will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Luis Castillo) in this game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.4) may lead us to conclude that Willi Castro has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his 11.0 actual HR/600.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.269) suggests that Willi Castro has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .244 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Carlos Correa is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Carlos Correa has been unlucky this year, notching a .288 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .046 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Considering that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Chris Paddack (34.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Seattle Mariners offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

J.P. Crawford will have the handedness advantage against Chris Paddack today.

J.P. Crawford is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Randy Arozarena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Leody Taveras will get to bat from his good side against Chris Paddack today.

Leody Taveras has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Leody Taveras will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Leody Taveras has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.3% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks.

Rowdy Tellez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have the upper hand today.

Rowdy Tellez may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

When estimating his home run skill, Rowdy Tellez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Byron Buxton projects as the 13th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Posting a 30.800 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Byron Buxton is ranked in the 98th percentile for power.

Byron Buxton’s quickness has increased this season. His 29.66 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 30.22 ft/sec now.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Byron Buxton ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Ryan Jeffers has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.4-mph.

Over the past 14 days, Ryan Jeffers’s 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.6%.

Kody Clemens will have the handedness advantage over Luis Castillo today… and even more favorably, Castillo has a large platoon split.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kody Clemens has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Kody Clemens pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Kody Clemens has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 17.2% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past 14 days.

When assessing his home run ability, Kody Clemens ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cal Raleigh projects as the 6th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Cal Raleigh ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When assessing his BABIP talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Julio Rodriguez ranks as the 16th-best hitter in the league.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo in today’s matchup… and moreover, Castillo has a large platoon split.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Trevor Larnach has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Matt Wallner projects as the 20th-best home run hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matt Wallner is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Matt Wallner will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.

Matt Wallner will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

Matt Wallner pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Negative Match Player Stats with Twins vs Mariners Series Game 3

T-Mobile Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.

This contest is expected to have the most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Brooks Lee will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

With a .259 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Brooks Lee is positioned in the 10th percentile.

Grading out in the 19th percentile, Brooks Lee has put up a .163 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Brooks Lee’s BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #1 park in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

T-Mobile Park ranks as the #30 field in the game for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As it relates to his home run talent, Cole Young ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cole Young is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

When it comes to his home run skill, Benjamin Williamson ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Benjamin Williamson is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

T-Mobile Park grades out as the #30 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Batting from the same side that Chris Paddack throws from, Benjamin Williamson encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Mitch Garver, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 4th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in T-Mobile Park.

Luis Castillo is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in the league in today’s game.

Luis Castillo’s 94.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph decline from last season’s 95.5-mph mark.

Among all starters, Luis Castillo’s fastball spin rate of 2194 rpm grades out in the 15th percentile this year.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 67% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Luis Castillo (34.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.

Willi Castro is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Willi Castro today.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Willi Castro’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.

Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Carlos Correa will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game.

Carlos Correa will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

This season, Carlos Correa’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 9.2% last year to just 4.2% this year.

Projected catcher Ryan Jeffers projects as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Chris Paddack will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Chris Paddack struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last GS and put up 2 Ks.

Chris Paddack has gone to his four-seam fastball 7.2% more often this season (50.1%) than he did last season (42.9%).

Chris Paddack has recorded a 16.2% strikeout rate this year, placing in the 14th percentile.

Chris Paddack is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in MLB today.

J.P. Crawford has notched a .144 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.

Chris Paddack will have the handedness advantage against Randy Arozarena today.

Randy Arozarena has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Randy Arozarena has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the past two weeks.

Leody Taveras is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Leody Taveras’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (-18° in the last 14 days) is considerably lower than his 8° seasonal figure.

Leody Taveras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 14.1% to 5.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rowdy Tellez in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Ranking in the 17th percentile, Rowdy Tellez has posted a .266 BABIP since the start of last season.

Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Byron Buxton will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Luis Castillo.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Byron Buxton in today’s matchup.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Considering Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Ryan Jeffers will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 18th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 11th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Kody Clemens is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Kody Clemens has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 25% of the time.

Kody Clemens will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side (0) today against Chris Paddack,Typically, bats like Cal Raleigh who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Chris Paddack.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive ability to be a .346, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .059 difference between that mark and his actual .405 wOBA.

Chris Paddack will hold the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks, Julio Rodriguez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

Julio Rodriguez’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 91.8-mph seasonal average has dropped to 81.9-mph over the last 14 days.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trevor Larnach today.

Trevor Larnach has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Trevor Larnach’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (3.1°) is significantly worse than his 12° angle last year.

Typically, batters like Matt Wallner who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Luis Castillo.

Matt Wallner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Matt Wallner has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 17.5% rate last year has fallen to 10.8% this year.

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