Rangers @ Astros Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Texas Rangers Game Today

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Cody Freeman has experienced some negative variance this year. His .254 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .283.

Hitting from the opposite that Cristian Javier throws from, Alejandro Osuna will have an advantage today.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Alejandro Osuna has had bad variance on his side this year. His .257 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .336.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Cole as the 14th-best batter in the game when estimating his BABIP skill.

Zachary Cole has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.

Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Zachary Cole will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

The Texas Rangers infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Cole in the 87th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Zachary Cole will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Wyatt Langford pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Wyatt Langford has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.9% seasonal rate to 25.9% over the last 14 days.

Wyatt Langford has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today.

Christian Walker has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.2% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the past week’s worth of games.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Victor Caratini will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Jacob deGrom in this game.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Victor Caratini has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph mark.

Victor Caratini’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 47.4% on the season to 64.7% over the past two weeks.

Compared to his seasonal average of 13.1°, Victor Caratini has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.7° mark in the last week.

Jose Altuve’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Over the past week, Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 93.7-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Carlos Correa is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Carlos Correa will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Carlos Correa ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In the past 7 days, Carlos Correa’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 4th-worst park in the league for batting average.

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Cristian Javier will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Cristian Javier was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and gave up 2 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 3rd-best park in MLB for strikeouts.

Given the 0.53 difference between Cristian Javier’s 7.82 K/9 and his 8.35 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform better in the future.

Joc Pederson is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Cristian Javier throws from, Joc Pederson will have an advantage in today’s game.

Joc Pederson has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .175 BA is quite a bit lower than his .217 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Joc Pederson has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile with a 1.89 K/BB rate.

When estimating his home run ability, Joc Pederson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Joc Pederson has suffered from bad luck this year. His .273 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .315.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jacob deGrom as the 14th-best starting pitcher in the game right now.

Compared to their .339 overall projected rate, the .323 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Houston Astros projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.

Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jacob deGrom today.

Jacob deGrom projects as the 14th-best SP in the majors right now when it comes to his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jacob deGrom will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in this matchup.

Jonah Heim is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonah Heim has experienced some negative variance given the .019 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .287.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage today.

Jesus Sanchez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

As it relates to his home runs, Jesus Sanchez has experienced some negative variance this year. His 16.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jake Burger is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Jake Burger has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13.2% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past two weeks.

Jake Burger has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 105.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 94.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jake Burger as the majors’s 19th-best home run batter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jeremy Pena has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 91.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Jake Meyers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 92.6-mph.

Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 44.4% to 50.9%.

In terms of his home runs, Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year. His 5.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.4.

Josh Jung’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 88.9-mph now compared to just 86.2-mph then.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Placing in the 82nd percentile, Josh Jung sports a .323 BABIP this year.

Michael Helman pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Michael Helman’s quickness has gotten better this year. His 28.55 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.5 ft/sec now.

In the past two weeks, Michael Helman has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .397.

Josh Smith is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Cristian Javier throws from, Josh Smith will have an advantage in today’s game.

When it comes to plate discipline, Josh Smith’s ability is quite impressive, putting up a 1.69 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 81st percentile.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 19th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

In the past week, Yainer Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.8% up to 23.5%.

In the past week’s worth of games, Yainer Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.8-mph over the course of the season to 102.7-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has experienced some negative variance given the .028 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

Negatives with the Houston Astros Game Today

As it relates to his home run skill, Cody Freeman ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cody Freeman is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

The #6 ballpark in the majors for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

The league’s 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Minute Maid Park.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.

Cody Freeman’s BABIP ability is projected in the 16th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #24 field in baseball for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.

Cristian Javier will hold the platoon advantage over Cody Freeman in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his home run ability, Alejandro Osuna ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alejandro Osuna is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

Alejandro Osuna has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 39% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 5th-worst venue in the league for lefty batting average.

Zachary Cole has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, angling balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time over the past week.

Cristian Javier will hold the platoon advantage against Wyatt Langford in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Wyatt Langford in today’s matchup.

Batting from the same side that Jacob deGrom throws from, Christian Walker meets a tough challenge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 13th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Christian Walker has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 17th percentile with a 4.05 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Caratini in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Victor Caratini is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Victor Caratini hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Jacob deGrom will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Jose Altuve has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .329 rate is inflated compared to his .292 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the same side that Jacob deGrom throws from, Carlos Correa will be in a tough position today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.4°, Carlos Correa has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Tallying 82.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Cristian Javier checks in at the 22nd percentile.

It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Manny Gonzalez) calling pitches today.

Cristian Javier has been one of the luckiest hurlers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .263 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

Checking in at the 19th percentile, Cristian Javier has notched a 1.64 K/BB rate since the start of last season.

Joc Pederson’s BABIP talent is projected in the 8th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Joc Pederson has been pulled from the game early 34% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jacob deGrom is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate today.

It may be best to expect positive regression for the Houston Astros offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonah Heim in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Jonah Heim will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Cristian Javier in today’s matchup.

Jonah Heim hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Jesus Sanchez has been pulled from the game early 15% of the time.

Hitting from the same side that Cristian Javier throws from, Jake Burger will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Burger in today’s game.

Sporting a 7.29 K/BB rate this year, Jake Burger has demonstrated poor plate discipline, ranking in the 1st percentile.

Batting from the same side that Jacob deGrom throws from, Jeremy Pena meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jeremy Pena’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.7%.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, falling from 10.6% on the season to 5.9% over the past 14 days.

Jake Meyers is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Jacob deGrom throws from, Jake Meyers faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Josh Jung is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.

Cristian Javier will have the handedness advantage over Josh Jung in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Helman in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Michael Helman is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

11% of the time that Michael Helman has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Helman in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

When it comes to his home run talent, Josh Smith ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Smith has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Josh Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Jacob deGrom will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today’s game.

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