Yankees @ Twins Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the New York Yankees Game Today

Target Field profiles as the #10 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

Anthony Volpe has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 4% rate last season to 9.9% this season.

Anthony Volpe has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season’s 90.6-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Anthony Volpe’s true offensive skill to be a .310, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .025 deviation between that figure and his actual .285 wOBA.

Anthony Volpe’s launch angle this season (11.5°) is significantly higher than his 8° angle last season.

The New York Yankees projected offense projects as the best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

John Libka grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jhonny Pereda (the Twins’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

Target Field ranks as the #5 stadium in Major League Baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Placing in the 19th percentile, Taj Bradley has recorded a 2.18 K/BB rate this year.

The New York Yankees have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton).

Taj Bradley was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and compiled 7 strikeouts.

Taj Bradley has gone to his curveball 5.7% more often this year (14.7%) than he did last season (9%).

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ben Rice ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ben Rice is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

The #10 field in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Ben Rice will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Ben Rice has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year’s 90-mph average.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ben Rice has experienced some negative variance this year. His .347 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .413.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Ryan McMahon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley today.

Last season, Ryan McMahon had an average launch angle of 10.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 14.1°.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today’s game.

In the past week, Cody Bellinger’s 21.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.6%.

In notching a .341 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Cody Bellinger is positioned in the 78th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Trent Grisham projects as the 17th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

Trent Grisham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today’s matchup.

Trent Grisham has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as baseball’s 7th-best home run hitter.

Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

Byron Buxton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Byron Buxton has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last year to 18.3% this season.

Byron Buxton has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.2-mph mark.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 15th-best batter in the league.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge in today’s matchup.

The Barrel% of Jazz Chisholm Jr. has significantly improved, with an increase from 10% last year to 16.3% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Last season, Jazz Chisholm Jr. had an average launch angle of 13.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 22.4°.

By putting up a .344 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is ranked in the 80th percentile for hitting ability.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Over the past week, Giancarlo Stanton’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.4-mph over the course of the season to 108.9-mph lately.

Giancarlo Stanton’s launch angle this season (19.8°) is a significant increase over his 14.3° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Giancarlo Stanton has recorded a .385 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Aaron Judge is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Aaron Judge has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 26.1% seasonal rate to 35.5% in the past 14 days.

Aaron Judge has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 99.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Luis Gil will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In his previous game started, Luis Gil allowed a monstrous 5 earned runs.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, James Outman).

Considering that flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball batters, Luis Gil and his 40.1% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position today going up against 3 opposing FB batters.

Luis Gil’s 2475-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 89th percentile out of all starters.

Luis Gil has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.40 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.13 — a 1.73 K/9 gap.

Extreme groundball batters like Jhonny Pereda generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Gil.

Jhonny Pereda will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Jhonny Pereda has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 2.6% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past 7 days.

In the past 7 days, Jhonny Pereda’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 104.4-mph in recent games.

Compared to his seasonal average of 3.5°, Jhonny Pereda has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 14.5° figure over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Kody Clemens is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Kody Clemens will have the handedness advantage over Luis Gil in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Austin Martin is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Austin Martin will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Martin in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Austin Martin has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph to 97.7-mph over the last 7 days.

In terms of plate discipline, Austin Martin’s skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.73 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Luis Gil throws from, Trevor Larnach will have an edge today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Trevor Larnach will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When estimating his home run talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

Royce Lewis will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Over the past 14 days, Royce Lewis has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 21.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.7°.

Despite posting a .294 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has been unlucky given the .028 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Austin Wells will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Austin Wells has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph figure.

Austin Wells’s launch angle this year (20.8°) is considerably higher than his 16.9° mark last year.

Over the last 14 days, Austin Wells’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Wells in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors’s 10th-best home run batter.

Hitting from the opposite that Luis Gil throws from, Matt Wallner will have the upper hand in today’s game.

New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Matt Wallner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Matt Wallner’s launch angle of late (26.4° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 20.7° seasonal angle.

By putting up a .391 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Matt Wallner grades out in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Negatives with the Minnesota Twins Game Today

Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Target Field has the 5th-highest average fence height among all stadiums.

Batting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Anthony Volpe meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Anthony Volpe in today’s matchup.

The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Anthony Volpe’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 43.9% to 36.6%.

In Major League Baseball, Target Field’s centerfield fences are the 10th-deepest.

Taj Bradley has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Taj Bradley will hold that advantage today.

Taj Bradley was firing on all cylinders in his previous GS and allowed 2 ER.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Taj Bradley is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of the day.

Target Field grades out as the #22 ballpark in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Ben Rice has been pinch hit for 10% of the time.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ben Rice today.

The #8 venue in the game for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

With a .273 BABIP this year, Ben Rice is ranked in the 22nd percentile.

Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Ryan McMahon hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Ryan McMahon will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Ryan McMahon’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 95.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 86.7-mph over the past week.

Over the last 7 days, Ryan McMahon’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.2%.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cody Bellinger in today’s game.

Compiling a lowly an 86.7-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks, Cody Bellinger has been in a slump lately.

In terms of his home runs, Cody Bellinger has experienced some positive variance this year. His 28.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.7.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cody Bellinger’s true offensive skill to be a .329, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .021 disparity between that figure and his actual .350 wOBA.

In today’s game, Trent Grisham is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (94th percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Trent Grisham in today’s game.

Trent Grisham has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 33.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 26.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Trent Grisham has posted a .229 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 15th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

From last season to this one, Trent Grisham’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 21% to 17.4%.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Trent Grisham has been lucky this year. His .352 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .340.

Ranking in the 18th percentile, Trent Grisham sits with a .267 BABIP this year.

Luis Gil will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Byron Buxton today.

Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Luis Gil.

Byron Buxton’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, falling from 42.4% on the season to 26.7% in the past week’s worth of games.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jazz Chisholm Jr. today.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 16.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s true offensive talent to be a .339, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .013 gap between that figure and his actual .352 wOBA.

Hitting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Giancarlo Stanton encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Giancarlo Stanton today.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 19.8°, Giancarlo Stanton has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) over the last 14 days.

Giancarlo Stanton has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .386 mark is a good deal higher than his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the same side that Taj Bradley throws from, Aaron Judge will have a disadvantage today.

Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Aaron Judge will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.410) suggests that Aaron Judge has experienced some positive variance this year with his .458 actual wOBA.

The Minnesota Twins have been the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season,Austin Wells, the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Gil is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

Luis Gil’s 94.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.8-mph decline from last season’s 96.7-mph figure.

As it relates to his home run skill, Jhonny Pereda ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jhonny Pereda is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Jhonny Pereda has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 19% of the time.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jhonny Pereda in the 18th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Luis Gil will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jhonny Pereda in today’s game.

21% of the time that Kody Clemens has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

As it relates to his home runs, Kody Clemens has had positive variance on his side this year. His 33.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

With a .211 batting average this year, Kody Clemens is ranked in the 7th percentile.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Martin ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Luis Gil throws from, Austin Martin encounters a tough challenge today.

In today’s game, Austin Martin is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (90th percentile).

There has been a significant decline in Austin Martin’s launch angle from last season’s 12.7° to 8.5° this year.

Despite posting a .352 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Austin Martin has had some very good luck given the .038 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

This year, Trevor Larnach has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

Trevor Larnach has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.9°, Trevor Larnach has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Trevor Larnach’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (5.4°) is considerably lower than his 12° angle last year.

Batting from the same side that Luis Gil throws from, Royce Lewis will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

In the past 7 days, Royce Lewis’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.3% down to 0%.

Over the last week, Royce Lewis’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 91.8 mph to 88.8 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 19th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Wells in the 10th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Austin Wells is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.

Austin Wells will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Austin Wells has displayed bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 18th percentile with a 3.95 K/BB rate.

Matt Wallner is penciled in 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Matt Wallner has been pulled from the game early 12% of the time.

Extreme groundball bats like Matt Wallner are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Gil.

Matt Wallner has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph dropping to 83.6-mph in the last 7 days.

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