World Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Pirates vs Reds Series Game 3 Matchup Today

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 park in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Among all major league stadiums, Great American Ball Park’s RF dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will get to bat from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Carmen Mlodzinski) in today’s game.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #6 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Endy Rodriguez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Endy Rodriguez pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Among every team in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Endy Rodriguez has been very consistent with his in recent games, posting a 33.2° launch angle standard deviation over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the best stadium in baseball for righty home runs.

In the majors, Great American Ball Park’s LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 84th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #6 field in the league for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Blake Dunn’s BABIP ability is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Blake Dunn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

Blake Dunn has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Blake Dunn will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Blake Dunn’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (39° in the past week’s worth of games) is significantly better than his 19.5° seasonal angle.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Over the past week, Jeimer Candelario’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.7% up to 12.5%.

Gavin Lux’s BABIP talent is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gavin Lux is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Given Carmen Mlodzinski’s large platoon split, Gavin Lux will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

Gavin Lux will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Adam Frazier will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

Adam Frazier has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .198 mark is deflated compared to his .240 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.284) suggests that Adam Frazier has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .254 actual wOBA.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 2.4% rate last year to 8.3% this year.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season’s 88.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Hunter Greene in this game.

Bryan Reynolds has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tommy Pham has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

Tommy Pham has been hot lately, notching a 96.7-mph average exit velocity in the past 7 days.

Tommy Pham has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 10.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 15.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage over Carmen Mlodzinski in today’s matchup… and moreover, Mlodzinski has a large platoon split.

Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Fraley will hold that advantage in today’s game.

With a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, Jake Fraley finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

Austin Wynns has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Austin Wynns will hold that advantage today.

Based on Statcast data, Austin Wynns grades out in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .297.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Because of Carmen Mlodzinski’s large platoon split, TJ Friedl will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

TJ Friedl pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

TJ Friedl will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Spencer Steer ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Spencer Steer will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Spencer Steer has posted a 27.1° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

As it relates to his strikeout ability, Hunter Greene projects as the 5th-best SP in Major League Baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Greene to throw 99 pitches in this matchup (2nd-most of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis).

Dan Merzel projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be calling pitches today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Greene in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Hunter Greene will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jack Suwinski in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jack Suwinski is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Jack Suwinski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene today.

Jack Suwinski pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

It may be best to expect better results for the Cincinnati Reds offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Henry Davis (the Pirates’s expected catcher in today’s game) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

Carmen Mlodzinski will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

In terms of his home runs, Henry Davis has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 4.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.0.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Henry Davis ranks in the 80th percentile with a 17.2° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in the game.

Negative Match Player Stats with Pirates vs Reds Series Game 3

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate at 58,°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

Elly De La Cruz has struggled to lift the ball recently, posting a -3.3° launch angle in the past 7 days.

Elly De La Cruz’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 45.3% to 34.4%.

Typically, bats like Endy Rodriguez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hunter Greene.

Endy Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Endy Rodriguez has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Endy Rodriguez has displayed some bad exit velocity indicators of late, averaging just 102.8-mph on the top 5% of his batted balls over the past two weeks.

Carmen Mlodzinski will have the handedness advantage over Christian Encarnacion-Strand today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Mlodzinski’s large platoon split.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has posted a .223 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 14th percentile.

In terms of plate discipline, Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s talent is quite bad, putting up a 10 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 3rd percentile.

Given Carmen Mlodzinski’s large platoon split, Blake Dunn will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game.

Blake Dunn’s speed has decreased this year. His 29.32 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.66 ft/sec now.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jeimer Candelario will be at a big disadvantage against Carmen Mlodzinski and his large platoon split today.

From last season to this one, Jeimer Candelario’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.7% to 3.7%.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jeimer Candelario’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 3.7%.

In the past two weeks, Gavin Lux has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Over the past week, Gavin Lux has been exhibiting poor exit velocity numbers, with an average of only 83.5-mph on his flyballs.

Using Statcast metrics, Gavin Lux is in the 18th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 10.900.

Checking in at the 17th percentile for power, Gavin Lux has paced 10.9 HRs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Gavin Lux’s 8.9° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in the game: 15th percentile.

As it relates to his home run skill, Adam Frazier ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Adam Frazier is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adam Frazier in today’s matchup.

Adam Frazier’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 18.4% to 10.7%.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Adam Frazier ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hunter Greene will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ke’Bryan Hayes today.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has compiled a .268 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 7th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

By putting up a 6.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ke’Bryan Hayes finds himself in the 6th percentile for power.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has compiled a .260 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 4th percentile.

Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Tommy Pham is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hunter Greene will have the handedness advantage against Tommy Pham in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tommy Pham in today’s game.

Posting a 4.1° launch angle over the last 14 days suggests that Tommy Pham has been finding it challenging to lift the ball of late, which is a key component of hitting for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Fraley in the 9th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jake Fraley is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Over the last two weeks, Jake Fraley has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Posting a lowly a 79.6-mph average exit velocity in the last two weeks, Jake Fraley has been in a slump lately.

Jake Fraley has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .270 figure is a fair amount higher than his .231 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Wynns in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Austin Wynns is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Carmen Mlodzinski will have the handedness advantage against Austin Wynns in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Mlodzinski’s large platoon split.

Checking in at the 7th percentile for Sprint Speed at 25.17 ft/sec since the start of last season, Austin Wynns is very slow.

Austin Wynns has performed at a clip of 8.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 4th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

TJ Friedl has been cold of late, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) in the past week’s worth of games.

In terms of his home runs, TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His 21.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.8.

TJ Friedl has put up a .184 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects TJ Friedl in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Posting a .238 BABIP since the start of last season, TJ Friedl grades out in the 2nd percentile.

Spencer Steer is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Carmen Mlodzinski will hold the platoon advantage over Spencer Steer in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Mlodzinski’s large platoon split.

With a .224 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Spencer Steer has performed in the 20th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Spencer Steer has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 108 mph (an advanced standard to study power), checking in at the 12th percentile.

Considering that groundball batters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Hunter Greene and his 42.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in this matchup squaring off against 1 opposing GB batters.

Hunter Greene’s four-seamer usage has increased by 7.6% from last year to this one (55.2% to 62.8%) .

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games,Great American Ball Park grades out as the #1 field in Major League Baseball for home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hunter Greene has posted a fantastic 1.31 ERA over his last 3 outings.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jack Suwinski today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jack Suwinski’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.1%.

Jack Suwinski has recorded a .252 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 3rd percentile.

Grading out in the 1st percentile, Jack Suwinski has notched a .172 batting average since the start of last season.

Posting a .308 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, Jack Suwinski grades out in the 4th percentile.

Jack Suwinski’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The Cincinnati Reds projected batting order projects as the 5th-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

Carmen Mlodzinski is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the majors — in this game.

Cincinnati’s 87.7-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the game: #30 overall.

Henry Davis is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Henry Davis will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Henry Davis in today’s game.

With a .150 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Henry Davis finds himself in the 4th percentile.

Henry Davis has notched a .230 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 8th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

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