Pirates vs Cardinals match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Wednesday, May 7th

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Pirates vs Cardinals match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Wednesday, May 7th

PIT @ STL

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Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Wednesday, May 7th
07/05/25 13:15:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Pirates vs Cardinals Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Busch Stadium has the 10th-shortest average fence height in the league.

Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Victor Scott II will have an edge today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in action today.

Victor Scott II will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Victor Scott II has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 7 days.

Victor Scott II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 21.1% on the season to 30% over the past 7 days.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Willson Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today’s game.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Ben May) behind the plate today.

Sonny Gray’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph decline from last year’s 92.3-mph mark.

Collectively, Pittsburgh Pirates batters have performed well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 3rd-best in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Sonny Gray in the 93rd percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

Sonny Gray’s four-seamer utilization has dropped by 5.5% from last year to this one (23.8% to 18.3%) .

Among all starters, Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate of 2528 rpm ranks in the 95th percentile this year.

Sonny Gray has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting an 8.92 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.97 — a 1.04 K/9 deviation.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Sporting a 1.75 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Nolan Arenado has displayed good plate discipline, placing in the 86th percentile.

Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Adam Frazier will have an edge today.

Adam Frazier has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph to 87.9-mph in the past 7 days.

Adam Frazier’s launch angle lately (22.5° in the past week) is significantly better than his 14.6° seasonal angle.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.241) provides evidence that Adam Frazier has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .212 actual batting average.

Mitch Keller has averaged 96.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season,Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.

Mitch Keller has used his slider 8.4% more often this year (33.5%) than he did last year (25.1%).

Among all SPs, Mitch Keller’s fastball spin rate of 2405 rpm is in the 84th percentile this year.

Considering the 1.33 deviation between Mitch Keller’s 6.69 K/9 and his 8.02 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to perform better the rest of the season.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.8-mph average to last season’s 88.7-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Sonny Gray in this game.

Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season’s 94.1-mph EV.

Bryan Reynolds has been unlucky this year, notching a .290 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .043 difference.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray.

Compared to his seasonal average of 5.5°, Tommy Pham has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21° figure over the last 7 days.

Tommy Pham has been unlucky this year, notching a .217 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .305 — a .088 deviation.

When it comes to his home run talent, Joey Bart ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Joey Bart is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Compared to last season, Joey Bart has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.1% to 52.6% this season.

Joey Bart has notched a .349 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 88th percentile.

Joey Bart’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 12.2% to 21.1%.

Checking in at the 91st percentile, Joey Bart sports a .339 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Andrew McCutchen has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 20.6% in the past two weeks.

Andrew McCutchen has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last year’s 93-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball’s 8th-best home run hitter.

Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an advantage in today’s game.

Oneil Cruz has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 15.7% rate last season to 24% this year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Over the last 7 days, Oneil Cruz’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 24% up to 40%.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Pedro Pages will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Alec Burleson’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage today.

Over the last two weeks, Alec Burleson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.2-mph of late.

Over the past two weeks, Alec Burleson’s 12% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 7.4%.

Brendan Donovan’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Brendan Donovan will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brendan Donovan ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Masyn Winn has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 10.7% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last 7 days.

There has been a significant improvement in Masyn Winn’s launch angle from last year’s 13° to 17.8° this season.

Over the past week, Masyn Winn’s 61.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.2%.

Enmanuel Valdez is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an edge today.

Enmanuel Valdez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Enmanuel Valdez’s launch angle recently (21° over the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 15.9° seasonal mark.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.352) may lead us to conclude that Enmanuel Valdez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .305 actual wOBA.

Jared Triolo has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season’s 90.1-mph average.

Jared Triolo’s launch angle this year (18.9°) is considerably higher than his 13° angle last season.

Jared Triolo has been lifting the ball well recently, compiling a 26.3° launch angle over the last two weeks.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.298) suggests that Jared Triolo has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .265 actual wOBA.

Jared Triolo’s BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Negative Match Player Stats with Pirates vs Cardinals Series Game 3

When it comes to his home run talent, Victor Scott II ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Victor Scott II is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

The #2 field in the game for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Victor Scott II has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Victor Scott II’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 89.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 82.7-mph over the last 7 days.

Victor Scott II has been lucky this year, notching a .335 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .290 — a .045 discrepancy.

With a .225 batting average since the start of last season, Victor Scott II grades out in the 20th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the 6th-worst venue in baseball for left-handed home runs.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Willson Contreras will be in a tough position today.

With a 3.86 K/BB rate this year, Willson Contreras has demonstrated weak plate discipline, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the 6th-worst stadium in the game for RHB home runs.

Willson Contreras’s launch angle of late (0.6° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit worse than his 5.7° seasonal angle.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Sonny Gray’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 90th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball currently.

Busch Stadium projects as the #27 stadium in the majors for home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 2nd-deepest RF dimensions in MLB are found in Busch Stadium.

Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (32% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Sonny Gray will hold that advantage today.

Busch Stadium ranks as the #26 stadium in baseball for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Mitch Keller will have the handedness advantage over Nolan Arenado in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.9% rate (99th percentile).

Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 85.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 83-mph in the past week.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 14.6°, Nolan Arenado has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-5.4°) in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adam Frazier in the 12th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Adam Frazier is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Adam Frazier will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Adam Frazier’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 18.4% to 14.8%.

When estimating his home run skill, Adam Frazier ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mitch Keller today.

Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this year (93.1 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).

Mitch Keller was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and conceded 1 ER.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.2% underlying K%.

When estimating his home run talent, Ke’Bryan Hayes ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Ke’Bryan Hayes encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ke’Bryan Hayes in today’s game.

Over the last week, Ke’Bryan Hayes’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 88.6 mph to 75.3 mph.

Bryan Reynolds has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryan Reynolds in today’s game.

Bryan Reynolds’s launch angle this season (4.9°) is a considerable dropoff from his 9.1° mark last season.

Bryan Reynolds’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, decreasing from 17.5% on the season to 10.5% over the past week.

Tommy Pham is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Tommy Pham will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Tommy Pham will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Over the last two weeks, Tommy Pham’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 88.7 mph to 82.2 mph.

Tommy Pham’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (2.5°) is considerably worse than his 9.6° angle last year.

Hitting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Joey Bart faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Joey Bart today.

Joey Bart’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 93.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.4-mph over the last 14 days.

In the last two weeks, Joey Bart’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-0.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.8°.

Sonny Gray will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew McCutchen in today’s matchup.

Andrew McCutchen will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Oneil Cruz in today’s game.

Lars Nootbaar has put up a .275 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile.

Lars Nootbaar’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 94.4-mph EV last season has dropped off to 90.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 21st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Pedro Pages is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences among all major league stadiums — generally bad for HRs.

Mitch Keller will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages in today’s game.

Pedro Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 90.7-mph figure last season has fallen off to 85.6-mph.

Alec Burleson is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Alec Burleson has been pulled from the game early 12% of the time.

Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

From last season to this one, Alec Burleson’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.1% to 7.4%.

In the last week, Alec Burleson’s 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 33.3%.

Today, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35% rate (85th percentile).

Brendan Donovan’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 89.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 86.6-mph over the past week.

Despite posting a .380 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brendan Donovan has had some very good luck given the .042 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.

From last year to this one, Brendan Donovan’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17% to 11.5%.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Masyn Winn has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 15% of the time.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage today.

In the past week, Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 91.5 mph to 86.8 mph.

Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, notching a .341 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .039 deviation.

Typically, hitters like Enmanuel Valdez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Sonny Gray.

Enmanuel Valdez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Enmanuel Valdez’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.8-mph seasonal average has decreased to 87.2-mph over the past two weeks.

Enmanuel Valdez’s launch angle this season (15.9°) is a considerable dropoff from his 18.9° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enmanuel Valdez in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Jared Triolo is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Jared Triolo faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

In today’s matchup, Jared Triolo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.6% rate (88th percentile).

Jared Triolo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

From last season to this one, Jared Triolo’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 42.3% to 28.3%.

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