Padres @ Twins Matchup Details

Positives for the San Diego Padres Game Today

Brooks Lee is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The #8 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Out of every team today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

Brooks Lee will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.

It may be wise to expect better results for the San Diego Padres offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Target Field as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for batting average.

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Zebby Matthews in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

Zebby Matthews’s fastball spin rate has increased 101 rpm this year (2331 rpm) over where it was last year (2230 rpm).

Among all starters, Zebby Matthews’s fastball velocity of 95.8 mph is in the 90th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Keaschall in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Luke Keaschall is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Luke Keaschall will have the upper hand in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Keaschall in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Luke Keaschall will hold that advantage today.

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

This season, Xander Bogaerts has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92 mph compared to last year’s 89.6 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, posting a .313 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .017 gap.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ryan O’Hearn ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ryan O’Hearn is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Ryan O’Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Zebby Matthews today.

Based on Statcast data, Ryan O’Hearn ranks in the 87th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .354.

Ryan O’Hearn has posted a .357 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Target Field projects as the #8 field in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Ramon Laureano has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the last 14 days.

Ramon Laureano has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.8-mph EV.

Ramon Laureano’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 19.3% on the season to 26.5% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

This season, Manny Machado has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.5 mph compared to last year’s 93.4 mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 22.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 26.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Zebby Matthews in today’s matchup.

Jake Cronenworth has displayed good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 80th percentile with a 1.7 K/BB rate.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 95.7-mph over the last 7 days.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been unlucky this year, compiling a .350 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .377 — a .027 gap.

With 6 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Nestor Cortes will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nestor Cortes in today’s game.

In his last outing, Nestor Cortes conceded a monstrous 8 earned runs.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton).

Nestor Cortes’s cut-fastball utilization has spiked by 7.3% from last year to this one (28.2% to 35.5%) .

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as MLB’s 8th-best home run batter.

Byron Buxton is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

Byron Buxton will hold the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage today.

Byron Buxton has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.

Byron Buxton projects as the 16th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Ryan Jeffers will have an edge today.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers’s launch angle of late (34.5° in the past week) is a considerable increase over his 16.2° seasonal mark.

Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage over Zebby Matthews in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year’s 90.8-mph mark.

Gavin Sheets’s launch angle in recent games (23.2° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 14.9° seasonal angle.

By putting up a .342 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Gavin Sheets finds himself in the 79th percentile for offensive ability.

Ranking in the 75th percentile, Gavin Sheets sits with a .297 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 86th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage today.

Kody Clemens has averaged 27.9 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile for power.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.237) may lead us to conclude that Kody Clemens has had some very poor luck this year with his .211 actual batting average.

Freddy Fermin has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 4.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the last 7 days.

Austin Martin’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Austin Martin will have an advantage in today’s game.

Austin Martin will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Over the last 7 days, Austin Martin’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 7.4%.

Austin Martin has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .298 mark is a fair amount lower than his .313 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Royce Lewis will have the upper hand today.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his home run talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Royce Lewis’s launch angle of late (28.9° over the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 18° seasonal mark.

Despite posting a .286 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has had some very poor luck given the .038 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien as the 18th-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP skill.

Edouard Julien will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

This season, Edouard Julien has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.1 mph compared to last year’s 93.7 mph mark.

In the last two weeks, Edouard Julien has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 21.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.3°.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Edouard Julien has suffered from bad luck this year. His .265 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .308.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the game’s 6th-best home run batter.

Matt Wallner is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Matt Wallner will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Over the last 7 days, Matt Wallner’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16% up to 30%.

Over the last week, Matt Wallner’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.4-mph over the course of the season to 99.7-mph recently.

Negatives with the Minnesota Twins Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Target Field has the 10th-deepest centerfield fences among all stadiums.

In MLB, the 5th-highest fences are at Target Field.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Brooks Lee will bat from his weak side against Nestor Cortes in today’s matchup.

Brooks Lee has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

In the past 7 days, Brooks Lee’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 92.2 mph to 83 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 7th-worst stadium in the league for RHB home runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Zebby Matthews in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall pitching skills.

With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Zebby Matthews figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats in all categories, and Zebby Matthews will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zebby Matthews to throw 82 pitches in today’s game (3rd-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 20.1% underlying K%.

Target Field ranks as the #22 ballpark in the game for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Given the 1.91 gap between Zebby Matthews’s 11.45 K/9 and his 9.54 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and should negatively regress in future games.

Luke Keaschall hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.

Luke Keaschall’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 90.1-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 83.9-mph in the last 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.1°, Luke Keaschall has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.9°) in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luke Keaschall’s true offensive skill to be a .325, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .096 deviation between that mark and his actual .421 wOBA.

Batting from the same side that Zebby Matthews throws from, Xander Bogaerts meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Over the last week, Xander Bogaerts’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.7°, Xander Bogaerts has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.1°) over the last two weeks.

10% of the time that Ryan O’Hearn has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The #7 venue in the league for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan O’Hearn today.

Over the past week, Ryan O’Hearn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.

Ryan O’Hearn’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 89.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 84.4-mph in the past week.

Batting from the same side that Zebby Matthews throws from, Ramon Laureano meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ramon Laureano in today’s matchup.

Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, putting up a .385 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .332 — a .053 difference.

Zebby Matthews will hold the platoon advantage over Manny Machado in today’s game.

Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Manny Machado today.

Over the past 7 days, Manny Machado’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.4% down to 0%.

In the last two weeks, Manny Machado’s 2.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Jake Cronenworth will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Over the last 14 days, Jake Cronenworth’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

Jake Cronenworth’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 89.8-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 87.4-mph in the last 14 days.

Batting from the same side that Zebby Matthews throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.7°, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly recently (5° in the past 14 days).

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 48.8% to 42.2%.

Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

Given that groundball pitchers have a sizeable edge over groundball bats, Nestor Cortes and his 43.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot today matching up with 2 opposing GB bats.

Over his previous 3 outings, Nestor Cortes has experienced a big increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2248 rpm over the entire season to 2309 rpm recently.

In his previous outing, Nestor Cortes didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 2 Ks.

Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nestor Cortes.

Byron Buxton’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 18.6% to 14.2%.

Byron Buxton’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, falling from 43.4% on the season to 33.3% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Byron Buxton’s launch angle in recent games (5.8° in the last week’s worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 17.6° seasonal angle.

As it relates to plate discipline, Byron Buxton’s skill is quite bad, posting a 3.45 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 23rd percentile.

Over the past two weeks, Ryan Jeffers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

Ryan Jeffers’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 89.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.9-mph in the last 7 days.

Ryan Jeffers’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 45.6% on the season to 7.7% in the past week.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Gavin Sheets has been pinch hit for 11% of the time.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gavin Sheets in today’s game.

Gavin Sheets’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 82.5-mph over the past week.

Kody Clemens is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Nestor Cortes throws from, Kody Clemens will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.

Kody Clemens’s BABIP ability is projected in the 6th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kody Clemens has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 10.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Freddy Fermin is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Zebby Matthews throws from, Freddy Fermin will have a disadvantage today.

In today’s matchup, Freddy Fermin is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (84th percentile).

Freddy Fermin will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Freddy Fermin has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 86.4-mph in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddy Fermin in the 23rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Austin Martin is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Austin Martin has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 33% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season.

Austin Martin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 85th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Austin Martin’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.2-mph mark last year has fallen off to 82-mph.

From last year to this one, Austin Martin’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.8% to 7.4%.

When it comes to his home run skill, Austin Martin ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Royce Lewis is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Royce Lewis’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 86.9-mph over the past two weeks.

Royce Lewis’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 21.2% to 16.5%.

Edouard Julien is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Nestor Cortes will have the handedness advantage over Edouard Julien today.

There has been a significant decline in Edouard Julien’s launch angle from last season’s 11.7° to 5.2° this season.

Edouard Julien has posted a .194 batting average this year, checking in at the 25th percentile.

Batting from the same side that Nestor Cortes throws from, Matt Wallner will be at a disadvantage today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Wallner are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

From last season to this one, Matt Wallner’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 46.8% to 38.6%.

Matt Wallner has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .352 figure is inflated compared to his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

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