Padres @ Brewers Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the San Diego Padres Series Game 3 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Andujar in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Miguel Andujar has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

,American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

,The American Family Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.

,Miguel Andujar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today’s game.

,Lance Barksdale profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

,American Family Field ranks as the #2 field in baseball for home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Among all stadiums, American Family Field’s centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.

,American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fences in Major League Baseball.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 3rd-best park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.

,Joey Ortiz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

,The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Ramon Laureano will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today’s matchup.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Nick Castellanos’s BABIP talent is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

,William Contreras is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell as the 14th-best batter in MLB when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Hitting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Garrett Mitchell will have an edge in today’s game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Nick Castellanos will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

,Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

,When it comes to his home run ability, Jake Bauers ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jake Bauers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Kyle Harrison will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his metrics in all categories.

,Kyle Harrison was on point in his previous GS and conceded 1 ER.

,Kyle Harrison has recorded a 3.35 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that concentrates on the things most within a pitcher’s control) this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

,Kyle Harrison has recorded a 13.9% Swinging Strike rate this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 16th-best hitter in MLB.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Sal Frelick will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Griffin Canning in today’s matchup.

,Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Freddy Fermin will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Freddy Fermin hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

,Despite posting a .232 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Freddy Fermin has experienced some negative variance given the .049 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jake Bauers ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an edge in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Joey Ortiz will hold that advantage today.

,This season, Joey Ortiz has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 89.4 mph compared to last year’s 86.2 mph mark.

,Ty France will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Harrison in today’s game.

,Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jackson Chourio ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ty France has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 7.7% rate last season to 14.5% this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Brice Turang is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 2nd-best park in the league for strikeouts.

,Griffin Canning was in good form in his previous outing and accumulated 7 strikeouts.

,William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Manny Machado will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison today.

,When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Kyle Harrison in the 88th percentile among all starters in the game.

,Kyle Harrison was in good form in his previous game started and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brice Turang ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,When it comes to his home run ability, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Hitting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Brice Turang will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Negatives with the Milwaukee Brewers Series Game 3 Game Today

Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

,Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Miguel Andujar today.

,Miguel Andujar’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 13.2% to 9.6%.

,As it relates to his batting average, Miguel Andujar has been lucky since the start of last season. His .311 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .257.

,With a .286 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Miguel Andujar has performed in the 14th percentile for offensive ability.

,The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among every team on the slate today.

,Griffin Canning was rolling in his previous GS and conceded 1 ER.

,Griffin Canning’s change-up rate has increased by 14.9% from last year to this one (22.9% to 37.8%) .

,Ranking lowest in Major League Baseball this year, Milwaukee Brewers batters collectively have compiled a 8.5° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

,The Milwaukee Brewers collectively rank 26th- overall in the league this year in regard to the maximum exit velocity of all of the balls their [HITTER}s have hit.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Griffin Canning will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Ortiz in today’s matchup.

,Joey Ortiz’s launch angle this year (6.9°) is a significant dropoff from his 13.8° figure last year.

,Batting from the same side that Kyle Harrison throws from, Jackson Merrill will be in a tough position in today’s game.

,Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Jackson Merrill’s launch angle this season (11.7°) is significantly lower than his 15.2° angle last year.

,Jackson Merrill has put up a .273 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 25th percentile.

,Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

,Ramon Laureano will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,There has been a significant decline in Ramon Laureano’s launch angle from last season’s 13.8° to 10.8° this season.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Manny Machado today.

,Manny Machado has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 12.9% rate last year has lowered to 6.8% this season.

,Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 92.9-mph figure last year has dropped to 90.6-mph.

,Manny Machado’s launch angle this year (8.8°) is significantly lower than his 14.4° angle last year.

,Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 47.6% to 41.4%.

,The standard deviation of Xander Bogaerts’s launch angle this year (30°) is in the 22nd percentile. A high figure like this tends to lead to a lower BABIP.

,Xander Bogaerts has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial talent for batting average), checking in at the 25th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score this year.

,Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nick Castellanos in today’s game.

,Nick Castellanos’s speed has declined this year. His 27.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.13 ft/sec now.

,With a 4.42 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Nick Castellanos has shown bad plate discipline, ranking in the 12th percentile.

,Hitting from the same side that Griffin Canning throws from, William Contreras will be in a tough position today.

,William Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 43.9% to 38.9%.

,William Contreras’s quickness has fallen off this season. His 26.17 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.8 ft/sec now.

,William Contreras has paced 12.6 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 23rd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Garrett Mitchell is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Garrett Mitchell is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of San Diego (#3-best on the slate today).

,Nick Castellanos has been cold of late, limping his way to a .236 wOBA in the last 14 days.

,Griffin Canning will have the handedness advantage against Jackson Chourio in today’s matchup.

,Jackson Chourio’s footspeed has declined this season. His 29.16 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.92 ft/sec now.

,Jackson Chourio ranks in the 19th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (41% rate since the start of last season).

,Power-wise, Garrett Mitchell grades out in the 22nd percentile, having paced 2 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

,12% of the time that Jake Bauers has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

,There has been a significant decline in Jake Bauers’s launch angle from last season’s 16.6° to 9.5° this year.

,Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Bauers has been very fortunate given the .027 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .321.

,Recording 14.4 outs per start this year on average, Kyle Harrison ranks in the 24th percentile.

,It may be best to expect improved performance for the San Diego Padres offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

,Ty France is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

,In today’s matchup, Ty France is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.6% rate (85th percentile).

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ty France today.

,From last season to this one, Ty France’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 50.1% to 42.9%.

,Despite posting a .345 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Miguel Andujar has had positive variance on his side given the .045 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.

,Miguel Andujar’s 4.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.

,Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 46.6% to 35.9%.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle this year (2.8°) is quite a bit worse than his 9.6° figure last season.

,Power-wise, Fernando Tatis Jr. finds himself in the 0th percentile, having averaged 0 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

,When it comes to his batting average, Jake Bauers has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .248 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .227.

,Sal Frelick is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

,Sal Frelick’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 41.1% to 35%.

,In terms of his batting average, Sal Frelick has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .274 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .249.

,Sal Frelick has put up a .299 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 25th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Sporting a .269 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Joey Ortiz finds himself in the 6th percentile for offensive ability.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Freddy Fermin ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Freddy Fermin is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

,Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Freddy Fermin in today’s matchup.

,In notching a .262 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Freddy Fermin has performed in the 5th percentile for hitting ability.

,Freddy Fermin’s 3.6% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) grades out in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

,When it comes to his home run ability, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Sal Frelick’s launch angle this year (8.1°) is significantly lower than his 12.1° figure last year.

,Sal Frelick has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 8.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Ty France ranks in just the 22nd percentile with a 10.4° launch angle, which is among the most groundball-inducing angles in the majors.

,Power-wise, Ty France is positioned in the 23rd percentile, having hit 12.1 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

,With a 3.76 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jackson Chourio has demonstrated weak plate discipline, grading out in the 20th percentile.

,Jackson Chourio is in the 20th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (13.6% rate since the start of last season).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brice Turang’s true offensive skill to be a .330, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .075 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .405 wOBA.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.5% underlying K%.

,Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Griffin Canning today.

,With 8 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Kyle Harrison will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

,Kyle Harrison’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (59.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

,Brice Turang has averaged 11.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 18th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Brice Turang ranks in just the 14th percentile with a 8.6° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the league.

,Xander Bogaerts’s 8.9° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the majors: 20th percentile.

,Recording 14.3 outs per outing since the start of last season on average, Griffin Canning places in the 12th percentile.

,When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs), Garrett Mitchell and his 7.6% rank in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

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