Dodgers @ Padres Matchup Details

Positives for the Los Angeles Dodgers Game Today

Nick Castellanos’s BABIP ability is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Petco Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,In the past 7 days, Nick Castellanos’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Castellanos’s true offensive talent to be a .311, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .058 difference between that figure and his actual .253 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Petco Park has the 4th-lowest fences among all major league parks.

,Among all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.

,Teoscar Hernandez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 38.8% to 50.5%.

,Will Smith projects as the 17th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Will Smith is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Will Smith has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 14.3% seasonal rate to 21.4% over the last week.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 16th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

,Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

,Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,When estimating his strikeout talent, Yoshinobu Yamamoto projects as the 20th-best pitcher in Major League Baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

,Petco Park profiles as the #10 park in MLB for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Teoscar Hernandez’s launch angle this year (14.3°) is significantly higher than his 9.8° figure last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 14th-best hitter in the game when estimating his batting average skill.

,Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Freddie Freeman will hold the platoon advantage over Michael King in today’s matchup.

,Miguel Andujar’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Miguel Andujar hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Miguel Andujar will hold that advantage today.

,In the last week, Miguel Andujar’s 64.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.4%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

,Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael King in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.

,Michael King has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

,The #2 park in MLB for suppressing base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

,Michael King will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats in all categories.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Ramon Laureano has notched a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 88th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Andy Pages’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Andy Pages is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Andy Pages has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last year’s 88.7-mph average.

,Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Hyeseong Kim will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Hyeseong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 10.5°, Hyeseong Kim has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 15.3° angle in the past 7 days.

,Freddy Fermin hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Freddy Fermin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

,Freddy Fermin’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, rising from 15% on the season to 28.6% over the past two weeks.

,Despite posting a .224 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Freddy Fermin has suffered from bad luck given the .056 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .280.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael King in the 81st percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

,Jackson Merrill will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yoshinobu Yamamoto today.

,Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Gavin Sheets will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Gavin Sheets’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.4-mph over the course of the season to 98.1-mph recently.

,Miguel Andujar has notched a .348 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile.

,Jackson Merrill will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Max Muncy as the game’s 15th-best home run hitter.

,Max Muncy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today’s game.

,Max Muncy has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 14% rate last year to 19.4% this season.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Freddie Freeman ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the majors.

,The San Diego Padres have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season,San Diego Padres hitters collectively grade out 7th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 93-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

,Ramon Laureano has notched a .274 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Miguel Andujar has compiled a .469 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile.

,Over the past week, Gavin Sheets’s 75% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.7%.

,Over the last 7 days, Max Muncy’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 19.4% up to 28.6%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Mookie Betts is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Mookie Betts has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 97th percentile with a 1.12 K/BB rate.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Despite posting a .265 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .096 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .361.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hyeseong Kim in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Utilizing Statcast data, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 78th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .272.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,Manny Machado has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 94.1-mph in the past 14 days.

Negatives with the San Diego Padres Game Today

Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The #2 ballpark in the game for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

,Petco Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to worse offense.

,The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Castellanos in today’s game.

,Teoscar Hernandez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Michael King throws from, Teoscar Hernandez will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Michael King will hold the platoon advantage against Will Smith in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Will Smith in today’s matchup.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto will have the handedness advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

,In the last two weeks, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 94.7 mph to 89 mph.

,Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle this year (2.3°) is a considerable dropoff from his 9.6° mark last season.

,Batting from the same side that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, Xander Bogaerts meets a tough challenge today.

,Xander Bogaerts has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past week.

,Xander Bogaerts’s launch angle this season (8.3°) is a significant dropoff from his 11.3° angle last season.

,Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,The #2 park in the game for suppressing base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

,Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Shohei Ohtani today.

,Shohei Ohtani has struggled with his Barrel%; his 23.7% rate last year has dropped off to 16.5% this year.

,Shohei Ohtani’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 94.9-mph EV last year has fallen to 92.9-mph.

,Teoscar Hernandez has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

,Freddie Freeman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Freddie Freeman has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 11.4% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past 7 days.

,Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.3°, Freddie Freeman has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.5°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Nick Castellanos’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 84.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,Miguel Andujar is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Hitting from the same side that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, Miguel Andujar will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, Manny Machado will not have the upper hand today.

,In the last 7 days, Manny Machado’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

,Manny Machado has posted a .269 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.

,The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

,Out of all SPs, Michael King’s fastball velocity of 91.9 mph is in the 19th percentile this year.

,Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

,Hitting from the same side that Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws from, Ramon Laureano faces a tough challenge today.

,Ramon Laureano has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 12.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Michael King will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andy Pages in today’s game.

,Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Andy Pages’s launch angle of late (7.9° over the past 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 13.3° seasonal angle.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andy Pages’s true offensive skill to be a .328, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .050 gap between that mark and his actual .378 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hyeseong Kim in the 7th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,Hyeseong Kim is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

,This year, Hyeseong Kim has been pinch hit for in 40% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddy Fermin in the 17th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

,Freddy Fermin has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

,Jackson Merrill has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.

,Jackson Merrill has posted a .257 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 13th percentile.

,Jackson Merrill has notched a .201 batting average this year, placing in the 19th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

,This year, Gavin Sheets has been pulled from the game early in 14% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

,Max Muncy is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

,Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,In his previous outing, Michael King was on point and allowed 0 ER.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the 5th-best starting pitcher in the league currently.

,In his last start, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was in good form and allowed 2 ER.

,Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 7.4% more often this season (64.4%) than he did last year (57%).

,Miguel Andujar’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 87.8-mph over the past week.

,Max Muncy will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Ramon Laureano’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88.8-mph seasonal average has decreased to 86-mph in the past 14 days.

,Michael King will hold the platoon advantage against Mookie Betts in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mookie Betts in today’s game.

,From last season to this one, Mookie Betts’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.2% to 15.4%.

,Jackson Merrill’s launch angle in recent games (0° in the past week’s worth of games) is quite a bit lower than his 11.7° seasonal angle.

,Jackson Merrill has put up a .312 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, ranking in the 20th percentile.

,Nick Castellanos has displayed poor plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 11th percentile with a 4.51 K/BB rate.

,In today’s game, Gavin Sheets is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.3% rate (84th percentile).

,In the last 7 days, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.

,Shohei Ohtani’s launch angle in recent games (3° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is considerably lower than his 10.9° seasonal angle.

,Will Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 92.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 85.2-mph over the last week.

,Xander Bogaerts’s launch angle lately (0.9° over the past 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 8.3° seasonal angle.

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