Dodgers @ D-Backs Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positives for the Los Angeles Dodgers Series Game 4 Game Today

It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Jordan Baker) behind the plate in this game.

,With 8 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Justin Wrobleski will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Justin Wrobleski in today’s matchup.

,It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Justin Wrobleski has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 57.3% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

,Justin Wrobleski has been lucky this year, notching a 2.87 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.56 — a 1.69 difference.

,Will Smith projects as the 15th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Chase Field ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

,Over the past 7 days, Will Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.1% up to 28.6%.

,Will Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 18% to 21.5%.

,Alex Call has shown strong plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile with a 1.34 K/BB rate.

,With a .319 BABIP since the start of last season, Alex Call grades out in the 85th percentile.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

,The #3 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Hitting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Kyle Tucker will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

,Batting from the opposite that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Nolan Arenado will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Nolan Arenado has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 19.3°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27° angle in the past week’s worth of games.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 18th-best hitter in MLB.

,Ketel Marte is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

,As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Justin Wrobleski in this game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Andy Pages ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Andy Pages has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

,Over the last 14 days, Andy Pages has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.4% to 20%.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 15.7°, Andy Pages has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 24.2° mark over the past two weeks.

,Checking in at the 84th percentile, Andy Pages sits with a .361 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

,Batting from the opposite that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Gabriel Moreno will have the upper hand today.

,Gabriel Moreno will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Andy Pages’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Freddie Freeman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Freddie Freeman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

,As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Ildemaro Vargas will get to bat from his good side against Justin Wrobleski today.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ildemaro Vargas will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Ranking in the 79th percentile, Ildemaro Vargas has notched a .277 batting average this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Gabriel Moreno’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Alex Freeland will get to bat from his strong side against Ryne Nelson in today’s matchup.

,Alex Freeland has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 89.2-mph average.

,Alex Freeland’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 20.5% on the season to 28.6% in the last week.

,Alex Freeland and his 18.7° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 88th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,Max Muncy will hold the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s matchup.

,Max Muncy is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

,As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Mookie Betts ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Mookie Betts is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mookie Betts’s true offensive skill to be a .340, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .054 disparity between that figure and his actual .286 wOBA.

,Ryan Waldschmidt is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

,Batting from the opposite that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Ryan Waldschmidt will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ryan Waldschmidt will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Ryan Waldschmidt has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 88.1-mph.

,Batting from the opposite that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Tommy Troy will have an edge today.

,Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Tommy Troy will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Tommy Troy has exhibited some good exit velocity statistics of late, averaging 96.9-mph on his flyballs over the last 7 days.

,Compared to league average, Justin Wrobleski has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.7 adjusted pitches each game.

,Out of all starting pitchers, Justin Wrobleski’s fastball spin rate of 2429 rpm grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.

,Given the 1.65 disparity between Justin Wrobleski’s 5.74 K/9 and his 7.40 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year in terms of strikeouts and should perform better in future games.

,Mookie Betts has exhibited favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 97th percentile with a 1.16 K/BB rate.

,Corbin Carroll has notched a .378 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup profiles as the best on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

,Ryne Nelson has put up a 5.56 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that deals with the things a pitcher can most influence) this year, placing in the 10th percentile.

,Ryne Nelson has put up a .230 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest pitchers in the league on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

,The 10.3% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes them the #3 offense in the game this year by this stat.

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Tommy Troy has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .380.

,Kyle Tucker is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

,Ryan Waldschmidt’s BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Batting from the opposite that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Jose Fernandez will have an advantage today.

,Jose Fernandez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball batters, Ryne Nelson and his 39% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s game squaring off against 5 opposing FB batters.

,Ryne Nelson will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his metrics in all categories.

,Ryne Nelson’s four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 5% from last season to this one (63% to 58%) .

,Ryne Nelson’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 80th percentile among all SPs.

,Will Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 21.5% on the season to 42.9% in the last 7 days.

,Max Muncy has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year’s 95-mph figure.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Max Muncy ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, rising from 12.2% on the season to 20.5% over the last 14 days.

,Freddie Freeman has notched a .363 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 4 Game Today

The 2nd-worst projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the worst stadium in the game for home runs.

,Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF fences in MLB.

,Chase Field has the 10th-tallest fence height (on average) in MLB.

,The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.

,Will Smith is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

,Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Will Smith encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Call in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Alex Call is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

,Ryne Nelson will hold the platoon advantage over Alex Call in today’s matchup.

,Today, Alex Call is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.5% rate (90th percentile).

,Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.

,Typically, bats like Will Smith who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ryne Nelson.

,The #1 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Nolan Arenado’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.5-mph average last year has lowered to 87.4-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Call in the 19th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Ketel Marte has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 84.2-mph in the past 7 days.

,Ketel Marte’s launch angle this year (9.8°) is a significant dropoff from his 15.3° angle last season.

,Ryne Nelson will hold the platoon advantage over Andy Pages in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,In today’s matchup, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.8% rate (98th percentile).

,Extreme groundball batters like Andy Pages usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Freddie Freeman today.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s BABIP ability is projected in the 5th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ildemaro Vargas is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Ildemaro Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,Batting from the same side that Justin Wrobleski throws from, Corbin Carroll has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Corbin Carroll has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 12.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 5.6% in the past week’s worth of games.

,Over the last two weeks, Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 95.5 mph to 93.3 mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nolan Arenado’s true offensive ability to be a .307, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .045 disparity between that figure and his actual .352 wOBA.

,Alex Freeland is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Alex Freeland has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 29% of the time.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the worst field in the majors for LHB home runs.

,Max Muncy is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

,Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Max Muncy generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Freeland in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Arizona’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

,Ryne Nelson will hold the platoon advantage over Mookie Betts today.

,Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,Typically, batters like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ryne Nelson.

,Ryan Waldschmidt has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last two weeks.

,Tommy Troy is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Tommy Troy hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Tommy Troy has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, lifting balls between -4° and 26° just 25% of the time over the past 7 days.

,Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.6% underlying K%.

,Chase Field profiles as the #27 ballpark in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Troy in the 25th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

,When estimating his home run talent, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,In the past week’s worth of games, Ryan Waldschmidt’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 29.2%.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jose Fernandez ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jose Fernandez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Jose Fernandez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 88.5 mph to 76.5 mph.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 82.4-mph in the last 7 days.

,The Los Angeles Dodgers (20.3 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ryan Waldschmidt’s true offensive skill to be a .297, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .025 gap between that figure and his actual .322 wOBA.

,In notching a .256 BABIP this year, Ketel Marte grades out in the 20th percentile.

,Freddie Freeman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph dropping to 87.8-mph over the past week.

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