D-Backs vs Padres match player stats | 2026 Series Game 4 Thursday, July 9th

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ARI @ SD

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D-Backs @ Padres Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Teams : Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Series Game 4
Date : Todays Game is on Thursday, July 9th
Time : 09/07/26 21:40:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 4 Game Today

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in MLB.

,Petco Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height in the league.

,Pavin Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Griffin Canning in today’s matchup.

,Pavin Smith has been unlucky this year, compiling a .221 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .092 difference.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Fernando Tatis Jr. as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average skill.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Corbin Carroll will have the upper hand today.

,Corbin Carroll’s launch angle in recent games (21° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is significantly better than his 14.2° seasonal figure.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Andujar in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

,Miguel Andujar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Miguel Andujar will hold that advantage today.

,Miguel Andujar’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 43.6% on the season to 60.9% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Sung-Mun Song will have the handedness advantage against Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Sung-Mun Song can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Sung-Mun Song will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s true offensive skill to be a .310, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .053 deviation between that figure and his actual .257 wOBA.

,Recording 92.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Merrill Kelly falls in the 84th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 2nd-worst park in the majors for BABIP.

,In his previous game started, Merrill Kelly was on point and conceded 2 ER.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage today.

,Ketel Marte projects as the 17th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

,Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 14% on the season to 31.6% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Ketel Marte has compiled a .366 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Tommy Troy’s BABIP ability is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Tommy Troy hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Tommy Troy has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal mark of 91.8-mph.

,Tommy Troy’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, rising from 16.5% on the season to 33.3% over the last 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

,Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Posting a .289 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Gabriel Moreno grades out in the 92nd percentile.

,Posting a 1.42 K/BB rate this year, Gabriel Moreno has displayed impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 91st percentile.

,Gabriel Moreno has posted a .275 batting average this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

,Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

,Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly today.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

,Jase Bowen will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,Ranking in the 91st percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.04 ft/sec this year, Jase Bowen is remarkably toolsy.

,Pavin Smith has posted a .314 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile.

,Max Kepler is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

,Batting from the opposite that Griffin Canning throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Max Kepler has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .296 mark is considerably lower than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Since the start of last season, Max Kepler’s 12.1% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 79th percentile among his peers.

,Max Kepler’s 90.7-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in baseball since the start of last season: 75th percentile.

,Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

,Gavin Sheets may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

,Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 19th-best batter in MLB.

,Luis Campusano hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Luis Campusano will hold that advantage today.

,Luis Campusano’s speed has increased this year. His 25.01 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.84 ft/sec now.

,Luis Campusano and his 17.3° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 84th percentile, among the highest in the game since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 9th-best venue in baseball for strikeouts.

,Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Griffin Canning will hold that advantage today.

,Griffin Canning was firing on all cylinders in his previous GS and notched 7 strikeouts.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,Xander Bogaerts will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

,It may be best to expect better results for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,In notching a 26.000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Max Kepler finds himself in the 77th percentile for power.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Merrill has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

,Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 38.1% to 43.9%.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph of late.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Using Statcast data, Gabriel Moreno grades out in the 79th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .343.

,Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, compiling a .295 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .332 — a .037 difference.

,The standard deviation of Sung-Mun Song’s launch angle has been very consistent of late (36.5° over the past 7 days), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

,When estimating his home run ability, Max Kepler ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 94.3-mph.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today.

,Based on Statcast data, Corbin Carroll is in the 95th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .378.

,Nolan Arenado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 92.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 88.5-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Negatives with the San Diego Padres Series Game 4 Game Today

Pavin Smith is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,13% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,The weather report expects the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Pavin Smith today.

,Pavin Smith has struggled with his Barrel%; his 11.7% rate last season has dropped off to 3.6% this season.

,Petco Park profiles as the #27 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Petco Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.

,Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams today.

,Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

,Corbin Carroll will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Over the past 7 days, Corbin Carroll’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.9% down to 0%.

,Miguel Andujar is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

,Merrill Kelly will hold the platoon advantage against Miguel Andujar today.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Sung-Mun Song ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Sung-Mun Song is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

,15% of the time that Sung-Mun Song has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

,Sung-Mun Song’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 88.9-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 85.4-mph over the past week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 21st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

,Griffin Canning will have the handedness advantage over Lourdes Gurriel Jr. today.

,The San Diego Padres have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season,Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Merrill Kelly today.

,With a 6.11 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that deals with the things a pitcher can most influence), Merrill Kelly places him the 3rd percentile.

,In the past two weeks, Jackson Merrill’s 11.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.4%.

,Ranking in the 14th percentile, Jackson Merrill has posted a .280 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

,Petco Park profiles as the #28 field in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Griffin Canning,Ketel Marte pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Tommy Troy is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,The #2 park in the majors for suppressing BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.

,Griffin Canning will hold the platoon advantage against Tommy Troy in today’s matchup.

,Hitting from the same side that Griffin Canning throws from, Gabriel Moreno meets a tough challenge today.

,Gabriel Moreno has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

,Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 92.4-mph mark last season has decreased to 89.9-mph.

,Jake Cronenworth has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 10% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

,Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jake Cronenworth grades out in the 18th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 11.200.

,Jake Cronenworth has recorded a .181 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sung-Mun Song in the 18th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jase Bowen ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Jase Bowen is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

,Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jase Bowen has a tough challenge today.

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Miguel Andujar’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 90.2 mph to 82.3 mph.

,Pavin Smith’s BABIP ability is projected in the 22nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Max Kepler has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 27% of the time.

,Gavin Sheets’s BABIP talent is projected in the 19th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Gavin Sheets has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time.

,Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle this season (4.8°) is quite a bit worse than his 9.6° mark last season.

,Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, going from 10.7% on the season to 6.7% in the last 7 days.

,Luis Campusano is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

,This year, Luis Campusano has been pinch hit for in 20% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Griffin Canning is projected to throw 85 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.1% underlying K%.

,Griffin Canning’s sinker utilization has spiked by 9.4% from last season to this one (0.5% to 9.9%) .

,Griffin Canning’s 2186-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 25th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

,Gavin Sheets pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

,In the past 7 days, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

,Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

,Over the last two weeks, Xander Bogaerts’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 91.3 mph to 85.8 mph.

,Xander Bogaerts’s launch angle this year (5.3°) is considerably lower than his 11.3° angle last season.

,Xander Bogaerts’s launch angle lately (-4.2° over the last 14 days) is significantly lower than his 5.3° seasonal figure.

,In his last game started, Griffin Canning was in good form and conceded 1 ER.

,Griffin Canning has had some very poor luck with his ERA this year; his 6.71 mark is quite a bit higher than his 5.16 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

,Batting from the same side that Griffin Canning throws from, Nolan Arenado meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Merrill Kelly’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (63.8% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

,Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Tommy Troy will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Gabriel Moreno will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Max Kepler pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Max Kepler today.

,Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Luis Campusano faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

,Merrill Kelly has recorded a 14.3% K% this year, placing in the 2nd percentile.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nolan Arenado in today’s matchup.

,Nolan Arenado has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 7 days.

,Jackson Merrill has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 19th percentile with a 3.54 K/BB rate.

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