Cubs @ Cardinals Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positives for the Chicago Cubs Game Today

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Carson Kelly ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Carson Kelly has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year’s 91.4-mph mark.

Carson Kelly’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 13.7% to 17.5%.

Out of all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

Carson Kelly’s quickness has increased this season. His 25.59 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.12 ft/sec now.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 15.1% to 18.3%.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 9th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season,Bill Miller projects as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 4th-worst field in the majors for home runs.

The 2nd-deepest RF fences in MLB are found in Busch Stadium.

Colin Rea’s four-seamer percentage has spiked by 23.9% from last season to this one (19.9% to 43.8%) .

The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker).

As it relates to his batting average ability, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 15th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (48.4% rate this year).

Sporting a 1.39 K/BB rate this year, Nico Hoerner has displayed good plate discipline, grading out in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Ian Happ is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Willi Castro will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Andre Pallante in this game.

Ranking in the 75th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.27 ft/sec this year, Willi Castro is quite quick.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 8th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 43.8% to 49%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hitting 2 HRs in the last week, Dansby Swanson has been on fire recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Ivan Herrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Michael Busch ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante today.

Michael Busch will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage over Andre Pallante in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea has a pitch-to-contact profile (6th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.

Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Nolan Gorman’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to evaluate power) has been 111.6 mph this year, placing in the 75th percentile.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Pedro Pages, the Cardinals’s expected catcher today, profiles as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Andre Pallante will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Andre Pallante’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (41.4% vs. 30.9% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

Andre Pallante has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 5.90 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.66 — a 0.75 K/9 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Colin Rea in today’s game.

Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Brendan Donovan will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colin Rea in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Extreme groundball batters like Seiya Suzuki generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Masyn Winn’s launch angle this year (16.4°) is considerably higher than his 13° mark last year.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals Game Today

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Busch Stadium projects as the #24 venue in the game for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences in Major League Baseball — generally bad for dingers.

Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Carson Kelly meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carson Kelly in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

The #7 ballpark in the majors for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Colin Rea will hold the platoon advantage against Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Colin Rea in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his overall pitching abilities.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colin Rea to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (13th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Colin Rea will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Colin Rea in the 19th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

Busch Stadium profiles as the #27 venue in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Nico Hoerner will be in a tough position today.

Nico Hoerner has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nico Hoerner in today’s game.

Nico Hoerner’s 2.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 7th percentile this year.

When estimating his home run ability, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Busch Stadium grades out as the #24 park in MLB for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ian Happ today.

From last season to this one, Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 20.1% to 15%.

This season, there has been a decline in Ian Happ’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.95 ft/sec last year to 27.33 ft/sec currently.

Hitting the ball to all fields is a core ability for batting average that Ian Happ has struggled with this year, as evidenced by his placing in the 17th percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.

Willi Castro has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

In today’s matchup, Willi Castro is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.4% rate (78th percentile).

Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Willi Castro’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.6-mph figure last season has dropped to 88.4-mph.

Willi Castro’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (9°) is significantly worse than his 14° mark last season.

Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Tucker in today’s matchup.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 23.6% to 19%.

Placing in the 19th percentile, the hardest ball Kyle Tucker has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 108.7 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Batting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Dansby Swanson has a tough challenge today.

Dansby Swanson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

This year, the hardest ball Dansby Swanson has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 109.3 mph (a reliable stat to measure power), checking in at the 25th percentile.

Dansby Swanson has shown weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 17th percentile with a 4.21 K/BB rate.

Hitting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Ivan Herrera will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Ivan Herrera’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.3% to 9.2%.

This year, there has been a decline in Ivan Herrera’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.25 ft/sec last year to 26.45 ft/sec currently.

Michael Busch pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Michael Busch will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In terms of plate discipline, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s skill is quite bad, posting a 5.63 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 3rd percentile.

Posting a .271 BABIP this year, Lars Nootbaar has performed in the 21st percentile.

Nolan Gorman is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Chicago’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 14th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Nolan Gorman has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 16.7% rate last year has fallen off to 11.6% this season.

Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 25% to 19.4%.

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Because flyball batters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante and his 58.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today’s outing going up against 2 opposing GB batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Andre Pallante in the 11th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

Andre Pallante has recorded a 16% strikeout rate this year, grading out in the 8th percentile.

Alec Burleson is very slow, placing in the 10th percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.47 ft/sec this year.

Brendan Donovan has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

This season, there has been a decline in Brendan Donovan’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27 ft/sec last year to 26.53 ft/sec currently.

Brendan Donovan hits a lot of balls with a launch angle that is “too high” (above 38°), which generally leads to lazy pop-up outs. His 12.8% “too-high” rate this year ranks in the 14th percentile.

Brendan Donovan has averaged 12 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 25th percentile for power.

Hitting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Seiya Suzuki has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today’s game.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the same side that Colin Rea throws from, Masyn Winn will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

This year, Masyn Winn’s 5.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 23rd percentile among his peers.

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