Cubs vs Brewers match player stats | Playoffs 2025 Saturday, October 4th

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CHC @ MIL

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Cubs @ Brewers Playoff Matchup Details

Teams : Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Postseason Series :
Date : Todays Game is on Saturday, October 4th
Time : 04/10/25 14:08:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Chicago Cubs Postseason Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Sal Frelick is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the hottest temperature on the slate today at 85°.

Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

American Family Field has the shortest fences in the league.

Joey Ortiz will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Boyd in today’s matchup.

Joey Ortiz will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joey Ortiz’s true offensive skill to be a .291, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .028 difference between that mark and his actual .263 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Jackson Chourio will have an edge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Caleb Durbin will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd today.

Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage today.

American Family Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.

Matt Shaw has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 6.9% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the past 14 days.

Matt Shaw has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.5-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 84.6-mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Carson Kelly ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Carson Kelly’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 13.7% to 16.7%.

Carson Kelly has displayed strong plate discipline this year, placing in the 79th percentile with a 1.76 K/BB rate.

When assessing his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 14th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Nico Hoerner has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 2.3% seasonal rate to 8.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ian Happ is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Carson Kelly (the Cubs’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Matthew Boyd will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Matthew Boyd in the 75th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in baseball for strikeouts.

Considering the 0.74 difference between Matthew Boyd’s 7.71 K/9 and his 8.45 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to perform better the rest of the season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Kyle Tucker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Dansby Swanson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson’s launch angle this season (13.6°) is quite a bit better than his 10.2° angle last year.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

William Contreras will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Boyd in today’s game.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich as the 10th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP talent.

Christian Yelich is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Freddy Peralta’s slider usage has fallen by 12% from last season to this one (21.6% to 9.6%) .

Freddy Peralta projects as the 17th-best starter in baseball right now when estimating his strikeout ability, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Chicago Cubs with a 20.9% underlying K%.

In his previous GS, Freddy Peralta was on point and compiled 8 strikeouts.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jake Bauers will hold that advantage today.

Jake Bauers has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season’s 89.4-mph mark.

Jake Bauers has put up a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Andrew Vaughn will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Michael Busch will have an edge in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pete Crow-Armstrong has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 8% rate last year to 13.2% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Brice Turang is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

Brice Turang hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Blake Perkins will get to bat from his good side against Matthew Boyd today.

Blake Perkins will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Isaac Collins is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Isaac Collins will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Matthew Boyd in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best batter in MLB.

Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Negatives with the Milwaukee Brewers Postseason Game Today

American Family Field ranks as the #23 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Matthew Boyd will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sal Frelick in today’s game.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

In the last two weeks, Sal Frelick’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (2.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.7°.

When estimating his home run talent, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

American Family Field projects as the #22 stadium in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Sal Frelick’s true offensive talent to be a .298, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .034 difference between that mark and his actual .332 wOBA.

Ranking in the 16th percentile, Sal Frelick sits with a .181 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Joey Ortiz is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Joey Ortiz has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 21% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler this year.

Today, Joey Ortiz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.9% rate (94th percentile).

The #8 ballpark in the game for suppressing batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Joey Ortiz has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 78-mph over the last 14 days.

Jackson Chourio’s launch angle recently (1.5° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 10.5° seasonal figure.

Jackson Chourio has shown poor plate discipline this year, grading out in the 19th percentile with a 3.81 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 11th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Over the last 14 days, Caleb Durbin’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 13th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Caleb Durbin has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .319 rate is considerably higher than his .299 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Caleb Durbin’s 4% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) grades out in the 13th percentile this year.

Matt Shaw is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Freddy Peralta will have the handedness advantage over Matt Shaw in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Shaw in today’s matchup.

Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

Freddy Peralta will hold the platoon advantage over Carson Kelly today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Carson Kelly in today’s game.

Carson Kelly has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 86.8-mph in the past two weeks.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 13.7°, Carson Kelly’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (8° in the past 14 days).

Carson Kelly’s BABIP ability is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Freddy Peralta will have the handedness advantage over Nico Hoerner in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nico Hoerner today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.9°, Nico Hoerner’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (4.2° in the past 14 days).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

In terms of his home runs, Nico Hoerner has had some very good luck this year. His 6.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 3.0.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ian Happ in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Ian Happ’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 4.8%.

Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, decreasing from 20.1% to 15.4%.

Over the past 14 days, Ian Happ’s 4.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Matthew Boyd in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent level.

The Milwaukee Brewers projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

American Family Field grades out as the #25 stadium in the majors for batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In his previous start, Matthew Boyd was firing on all cylinders and conceded 0 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matthew Boyd to throw 74 pitches in this game (3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The Milwaukee Brewers (19.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup of the day.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Kyle Tucker in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

Kyle Tucker’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (16.5°) is considerably lower than his 19.7° figure last season.

Dansby Swanson is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the same side that Freddy Peralta throws from, Dansby Swanson encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Dansby Swanson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson has shown poor plate discipline this year, checking in at the 21st percentile with a 3.58 K/BB rate.

William Contreras has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

From last season to this one, William Contreras’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 96.7 mph to 92.9 mph.

Posting a 12.700 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , William Contreras is positioned in the 23rd percentile for power.

William Contreras is in the 1st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (9.6% rate this year).

Hitting from the same side that Matthew Boyd throws from, Christian Yelich will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Christian Yelich’s launch angle this season (1.8°) is a considerable dropoff from his 5.1° figure last season.

Christian Yelich’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, decreasing from 14% on the season to 0% in the past two weeks.

Christian Yelich has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 27.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 17.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Freddy Peralta’s overall pitching skill ranks in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in baseball currently.

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Freddy Peralta will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Freddy Peralta turned in a great performance in his last outing and allowed 2 ER.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Freddy Peralta is projected to throw 81 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-most on the slate.

With a 0.17 gap between Freddy Peralta’s 10.39 K/9 and his 10.22 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see worse results going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 16th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Jake Bauers is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Matthew Boyd throws from, Jake Bauers encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jake Bauers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Jake Bauers’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (16.1°) is a significant dropoff from his 22.4° figure last year.

Jake Bauers has been lucky this year, putting up a .333 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .025 difference.

Andrew Vaughn’s launch angle this year (13.5°) is significantly worse than his 16.5° mark last season.

11% of the time that Michael Busch has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

In today’s matchup, Michael Busch is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.8% rate (82nd percentile).

Michael Busch will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .369 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Busch has experienced some positive variance given the .023 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .346.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Pete Crow-Armstrong will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 19.7°, Pete Crow-Armstrong has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (16.3°) over the last two weeks.

When it comes to plate discipline, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s skill is quite weak, sporting a 5.18 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 5th percentile.

Matthew Boyd will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brice Turang in today’s matchup.

Brice Turang has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 8.1% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

Despite posting a .346 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brice Turang has had some very good luck given the .034 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.

When estimating his home run ability, Brice Turang ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Blake Perkins is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Blake Perkins has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 23% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year.

Blake Perkins’s launch angle this year (5.2°) is a considerable dropoff from his 11.7° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Perkins in the 21st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Sporting a 7.500 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Blake Perkins is positioned in the 21st percentile for power.

This year, Isaac Collins has been pulled from the game early in 14% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.

Despite posting a .344 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Isaac Collins has been lucky given the .035 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .309.

Isaac Collins has paced 11.3 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 18th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

This year, Isaac Collins’s 5.1% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 21st percentile among his peers.

This year, Isaac Collins’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 11th percentile at 89.4 mph.

Batting from the same side that Freddy Peralta throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today’s game.

Seiya Suzuki’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 87.3-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

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